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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. A019D50F-5C11-4B56-A361-110D8F30D9AB.thumb.png.c0fddfcf1542e9f0d276da52d2d52d14.png

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

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52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. A019D50F-5C11-4B56-A361-110D8F30D9AB.thumb.png.c0fddfcf1542e9f0d276da52d2d52d14.png

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

I'd be curious to hear what you (and others) think is causing the ridiculously resilient SE ridge this winter. Is it just that the western trough continues to dig more than initially thought, while maintaining a less-than-ideal mean axis?? Is there something upstream that's helping to force the ridge? SSTs are pretty warm in the Gulf/off the SE coast but it doesn't seem to be exceptionally warm, so I imagine that's a contributor but not necessarily what causes it. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE the problems with the pacific base state have been beaten to death. But my point, and Ji I think, was that occasionally when the pac is not THAT bad and the pattern should be “ok” the SE ridge is still going nuts. This panel is a good example. A019D50F-5C11-4B56-A361-110D8F30D9AB.thumb.png.c0fddfcf1542e9f0d276da52d2d52d14.png

No the pac isn’t “good” there but it it’s not a train wreck either.  Honestly that’s likely as good as we can hope for in the current base state.  The pacific ridge is poleward and just far enough east that combined with a favorable AO/NAO that should suppress the SE ridge some. Yea there should be some SE ridge response to the wavelengths out west but it’s still flexing to Canada!   It shouldn’t take a perfect wavelength alignment to stop the SE ridge from pumping to the arctic circle. 

Maybe that's where we are now?  Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot.  That's not just being a random downer.  Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.

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-EPO can be +8 in the upper levels, and below freezing at the surface. It's a below average temp pattern. -EPO with -NAO, which it should be, gives us snow, but the clouds are thin and it melts quickly. :)

Both 2010 and 1950 had big -EPO's for a few days while transitioning away from -PNA. 

see how warm it is

 

9s.gif

 

The 2 biggest -PNA's on record, in transition, both produced big -EPO's, 2/2

9ss.gif.3cf26d077cca4a6dd529245e3c47361b.gif

 

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Latest MJO update from CPC is out and it fits in disturbingly well PSU's concern.

See slide 2 last bullet

• While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.

 

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27 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Maybe that's where we are now?  Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot.  That's not just being a random downer.  Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.

Seems that way.  With the demise of clippers which were good for some 1-2 type deals you have to wonder if it’s bad luck or the future of MA winter

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Only the Sith deal in absolutes.

With the exception of @H2O.  We can all be certain that he will never see snow again.

We hold these truths to be self evident. We are all created equal and that everyone has the right to life, liberty and happiness from getting snow except me

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