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Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21


dryslot
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About 1.75” here. Drove down to RUT today. Saw my first car off the road on Mendon Mt. on the Rutland side. Looked like it had NC plates. Decided to come back up Rt.7 to BTV thinking it would get better. It did but not until Middlebury. The ride back down 89 was ok, slushy but ok. Looks like it’s coming down harder now. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ALB to rt 2 in MA corridor basically got shutout in this event. Worse than I thought even in the bad scenarios...garbage system. 
 

Aesthetically this even looks putrid too on radar. What an ugly system. 
 

image.gif.68a540f4f68a85336921cd9fd49e74dc.gif

That radar makes me decidedly an optimistic about going anywhere more than about three or 4 inchesThat radar makes me decidedly an optimistic about going anywhere more than about three or 4 inches

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Well, I think I called this one.  I just wasn’t excited about this in the Capital region of NH.  Really felt the models were under doing the warmth over the past 48hrs here.  I called for a bust potential with most accumulations on grassy surfaces and that seems like exactly what we got?  The radar to the west of us looks horrific and I can’t see any way right now we get 6-10”?

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11 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

finally remembered my password

Now we don't have to rely solely on Scooter when he's visiting the lake for complaints about our snow forecasts!

6 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said:

Well, I think I called this one.  I just wasn’t excited about this in the Capital region of NH.  Really felt the models were under doing the warmth over the past 48hrs here.  I called for a bust potential with most accumulations on grassy surfaces and that seems like exactly what we got?  The radar to the west of us looks horrific and I can’t see any way right now we get 6-10”?

Well when you call it over when the event starts, sure. We still have you for 3 to 4 inches overnight and that is pretty much the consensus of models too. 

Things are a little ragged now, but the forecast is for the DGZ to saturate more thoroughly like 03-06z as the low gets a little deeper towards the Cape. That's your window for most of the accumulation.

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10 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Kinda brutal. Dismal snow growth 1 sm vis. Don’t see it getting better 

Sheared vortmax through Ottawa...I should’ve been even more pessimistic but I got too wrapped up in the models 2 days ago when they were trending colder and looked like a decent shot of lift on the front end. 
 

If that was tracking through PA or even souther tier of NY and not a sheared mess, that would have been a different ballgame. This kind of reminds me of that MLK weekend event in January 2020....we had a much better antecedent airmass so we stayed all snow but the upper energy was a sheared disaster displaces NW so it was like 3-5” of sand and garbage rates with a shredded radar.  

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Now we don't have to rely solely on Scooter when he's visiting the lake for complaints about our snow forecasts!

Well when you call it over when the event starts, sure. We still have you for 3 to 4 inches overnight and that is pretty much the consensus of models too. 

Things are a little ragged now, but the forecast is for the DGZ to saturate more thoroughly like 03-06z as the low gets a little deeper towards the Cape. That's your window for most of the accumulation.

Also your wsw had 4-7" forecast for Bow which will probably verify towards the lower end.  I never saw any forecast calling for 10" def not from nws.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Now we don't have to rely solely on Scooter when he's visiting the lake for complaints about our snow forecasts!

Well when you call it over when the event starts, sure. We still have you for 3 to 4 inches overnight and that is pretty much the consensus of models too. 

Things are a little ragged now, but the forecast is for the DGZ to saturate more thoroughly like 03-06z as the low gets a little deeper towards the Cape. That's your window for most of the accumulation.

Thanks for that Chris.  I figured it was likely to develop further but the radar does look shitty 

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