Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Nice supercell structure embedded in the line…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Report of 80-90 MPH winds estimated by emergency manager at Giltner, NE just popped up on my GR Level 3. Looked like a TDS went over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Wow that structure is impressive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 hours ago, madwx said: Monthly all time high temp records are going to start falling. Des Moines is first And Cedar Rapids is next Has since been broken, latest 5-min obs was 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Can’t figure out why the SPC didn’t pull the MOD risk back southwest to the current location of ongoing activity in NE. Also probably could have pulled the ENH southward into KS/MO.Alsooo, with this update you can argue for the need of a high risk for wind (the coveted 60% hatched), given how things are unfolding.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 hours ago, madwx said: Monthly all time high temp records are going to start falling. Des Moines is first And Cedar Rapids is next 19z DES MOINES CLOUDY 74 CEDAR RAPIDS PTSUNNY 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Has since been broken, latest 5-min obs was 66. heads up that 5 min obs do a F to C to F conversion which can lead to erroneous numbers. I'm sure it's broken 65 but those 5 min obs can be misleading 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Can’t figure out why the SPC didn’t pull the MOD risk back southwest to the current location of ongoing activity in NE. Also probably could have pulled the ENH southward into KS/MO. Alsooo, with this update you can argue for the need of a high risk for wind (the coveted 60% hatched), given how things are unfolding. . Agreed! Was thinking about this exactly, the mainline is pretty much a Cat 1 Hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Looks like there's a quite a bit of CIHN across IA. While the line should easily break the cap, the CIHN may be the saving grace that prevents more tornadic supercells from developing ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, madwx said: heads up that 5 min obs do a F to C to F conversion which can lead to erroneous numbers. I'm sure it's broken 65 but those 5 min obs can be misleading Even so...I just stood on my porch in a T-shirt, on December 15th, and felt only slightly chilly thanks to the wind. Clouds flying south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Powerball said: Looks like there's a quite a bit of CIHN across IA. While the line should easily break the cap, the CIHN may be the saving grace that prevents more tornadic suoercells from developing ahead of the line. I noticed that in the HRRR forecast soundings from this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, madwx said: heads up that 5 min obs do a F to C to F conversion which can lead to erroneous numbers. I'm sure it's broken 65 but those 5 min obs can be misleading I’m aware of that, but my understanding is that 64 and 65 round to 64, while 66 and 67 round to 66. Edit: Regardless, 2:53 obs was 67. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Looks like there's a quite a bit of CIHN across IA. While the line should easily break the cap, the CIHN may be the saving grace that prevents more tornadic supercells from developing ahead of the line.Anything forming ahead of the line was never really in the cards.It was always going to be a line of mixed mode embedded supercells and QLCS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 What is the SPC doing? Lol. This should be a high all the way back to where the line is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Tornado warned cells within NE line screaming northeast, will threaten the Pilger/Wisner/Stanton area. I can't look at those towns on the GR Level 3 map without feeling a little stab of pain for botching that chase in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 After the initial few, haven't seen any clear TDS' on radar for a while. Of course, storms of interest are currently about equidistant between Hastings and Omaha NEXRAD, with the 0.5 tilt hitting above 4,000'. That says these tornadoes, if they are on the ground, aren't lofting debris particularly high. At least, not like what was seen last Friday night (to be expected). However, I wonder if that might also be due in part to the environmental straight-line winds being so strong that they are scattering the debris before it can rise in a relatively concentrated area that would be picked up by the radar. Edit: Very possible TDS over Columbus, NE on the 2105 UTC scan, but NWS didn't pick up on it (no TORR). Edit 2: Apparently a TORR did go out, but my GR Level 3 didn't display it in real time. It shows up now when I play the loop back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Per SPC 3:13pm CT report, there's a TOG in Humphrey, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . Beating a record high by 11 degrees (at least) is boss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The bulk of guidance suggests the tornado threat will maximize across extreme eastern NE into western and central IA between 4-7pm CST, as effective SRH increases ahead of the line. It will be interesting to see how the line evolves as low-level shear becomes quite intense by early evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 342 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 NEC025-053-055-067-097-109-131-133-153-155-177-152215- /O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-211215T2215Z/ SARPY NE-WASHINGTON NE-LANCASTER NE-DODGE NE-JOHNSON NE-OTOE NE- DOUGLAS NE-PAWNEE NE-SAUNDERS NE-GAGE NE-CASS NE- 342 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR WESTERN SARPY...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...LANCASTER... SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...WESTERN JOHNSON...WESTERN OTOE...WESTERN DOUGLAS...WESTERN PAWNEE...SAUNDERS...GAGE AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES... AT 341 PM CST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CEDAR BLUFFS TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLUE SPRINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 345 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CUMING COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... THURSTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 430 PM CST. * AT 345 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BEEMER, OR 32 MILES EAST OF NORFOLK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR BEEMER. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BANCROFT AROUND 355 PM CST. PENDER AROUND 400 PM CST. EMERSON AROUND 410 PM CST. WINNEBAGO AROUND 415 PM CST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Valley , radar site, in the path SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 349 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 NEC055-155-152230- /O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-211215T2230Z/ DOUGLAS NE-SAUNDERS NE- 349 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS AND EASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTIES... AT 348 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF MEAD, OR 25 MILES WEST OF OMAHA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... VALLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Ya, northern Omaha area now under the gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Tornado tracked north of West Point, NE around 12-15 minutes ago, pronounced TDS and couplet. Heading towards Winnebago/Homer where I reached the former Pilger cell just in time to watch it die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 354 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... SOUTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 445 PM CST. * AT 353 PM CST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER YUTAN, OR 20 MILES WEST OF OMAHA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... ELKHORN AROUND 400 PM CST. ARLINGTON AROUND 405 PM CST. KENNARD AROUND 410 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BLAIR AND FORT CALHOUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 NEC173-152230- /O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-211215T2230Z/ THURSTON NE- 358 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR THURSTON COUNTY... AT 358 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PENDER, OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... EMERSON AROUND 405 PM CST. WINNEBAGO AROUND 410 PM CST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The sting jet is evident w/ CAA back in KS. Have been some 65-75KT+ wind gusts reported with it. Numerous, large wildfires are flaring up as a result of the very windy & dry conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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