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Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather


Indystorm
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32 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Sadly they still think the statewide total will probs end up at around 100, but it's better than the likely 200 total if all the people in the factory had died like they originally thought 

If I'm not mistaken, that makes it the deadliest single tornado since Udall if not for Joplin, correct?

*Although it remains to be seen if the single-tornado toll will exceed Hackleburg or Tuscaloosa.

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I wouldn't be as definitive as some are, but I think it's greater than 50% chance of it being EF-5.  I am probably more interested in whether it broke the Tri-State tornado record for path length.  That is almost an unthinkable record in my book.  It's like DiMaggio's hitting streak being broken. 

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A lot of pictures I have seen remind me of some of those from Greensburg, KS but haven't heard it mentioned in comparisons. Greensburg was a smaller and more compact town, but not so different than some of these denser populations of bigger towns/cities.

 

I'm not an expert or even educated in the field, so not ssying such is so.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I wouldn't be as definitive as some are, but I think it's greater than 50% chance of it being EF-5.  I am probably more interested in whether it broke the Tri-State tornado record for path length.  That is almost an unthinkable record in my book.  It's like DiMaggio's hitting streak being broken. 

Reed timmer posted a video from someone showing it as a wedge on approach to the Mississippi River. He tweeted “likely 1 tornado”

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I went ahead and uploaded a Google Drive folder with all my GR Level 3 screenshots from this event. When I have time I'll hook up my phone and add all my RadarScope screenshots, mostly from KHPX after it stopped updating on GR Level 3 for some stupid reason (after KPAH was already down for everybody).

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1XnEHjfxXwljZ-OHkXwkTt0j7wWPfIXwh?usp=sharing

First grab of the eventual quad-state supercell is from LZK at 2354 UTC. At 0029/0031 from NQA is when it showed that dramatic BWER which I remarked reminded me of the early stages of the Cullman tornado from 4/27. At 0259 from PAH is when the debris signature explodes again just before Cayce, KY and starting at 0317 is when it starts to approach Mayfield.

Unfortunately I went to bed before the Bowling Green tornado.

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4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

 

That’s some crazy damage but I don’t buy the pavement scouring claim based on the photos provided. If they’re talking about the picture with the driveway, those appear to be tire tracks to me. They follow the path of the driveway exactly.

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52 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said:

That’s some crazy damage but I don’t buy the pavement scouring claim based on the photos provided. If they’re talking about the picture with the driveway, those appear to be tire tracks to me. They follow the path of the driveway exactly.

They're talking about the lower left photo. But i'm not totally convinced that photo shows any pavement scouring either.

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If I had to hazard a guess based on the damage pics and videos we’ve seen, I think the best shot we have at an EF-5 rating, as others have posited here, will be northeast of Mayfield. The damage out of the smaller communities like Bremen and Dawson Springs is just insane. It’s comparable at first glance to any of the recent EF-5s we’ve seen IMHO. Only official surveys will be able to definitely tell whether we had an EF-5 or not. 
 

Regardless of where this ends up officially on the rating scale though (it seems likely that it ends up AT LEAST a high-end EF-4 rating), this tornado was absolutely historic in a horrifying way. It likely produced a swath of at least EF-4 damage for dozens of miles at a time, and the path length is likely one of, if not the longest in modern history. 
 

I think this tornado event is also a good reminder that we’ve been extremely lucky since 2011 when it comes to violent tornadoes not hitting populated areas. Let’s hope this isn’t an indication of how the coming months may play out. 

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1 hour ago, Tezeta said:

Looks like a 4 to me. People are posting the weakest ground scouring and we all know construction standards in W Kentucky are kinda sus. 

They're probably better than in rural MS or AL, to be fair.

Mayfield, Cambridge Springs, and the region of Princeton that was struck are reasonably well-off areas.

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50 minutes ago, andyhb said:

They're probably better than in rural MS or AL, to be fair.

Mayfield, Cambridge Springs, and the region of Princeton that was struck are reasonably well-off areas.

At least so far they havent gone higher than EF3 for anything. I find it hard to believe given some of the damage that nothing has even reached EF4 for 1 or several tornadoes. But yall said theyre stingy going above a 3 so maybe thats as high as we see even if its wrong.

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13 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

At least so far they havent gone higher than EF3 for anything. I find it hard to believe given some of the damage that nothing has even reached EF4 for 1 or several tornadoes. But yall said theyre stingy going above a 3 so maybe thats as high as we see even if its wrong.

Things are pointing to at least EF-4, whether it's what we can tell based on damage photos (yes, there are some limitations at just looking at pictures) but also various radar data.  I also feel like we can use the death toll as a proxy.  Generally speaking, you are not going to get the kind of death count we are looking at from anything under EF-4, unless maybe it's a freak circumstance such as an outdoor event being hit or nothing but trailer parks, which we don't have in this case.

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19 hours ago, largetornado said:

8 dead, 8 missing at candle factory. Not 70 dead like early estimates per AP and candle factory spokesman

That's much better news.

I found an article with more info on the candle factory:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/spokesman-8-factory-workers-dead-8-missing-from-tornado/ar-AARJOeB

“Many of the employees were gathered in the tornado shelter and after the storm was over they left the plant and went to their homes,” said Bob Ferguson, a spokesman for the company. “With the power out and no landline they were hard to reach initially. We’re hoping to find more of those eight unaccounted as we try their home residences.”

 

Unfortunately there's an ugly lie going around Twitter and YouTube this afternoon claiming candle factory workers weren't allowed to seek shelter because of their race.  Needs to be nipped in the bud, but will probably become an established urban myth.

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18 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

267691439_5560672600626151_4965115526265878023_n.thumb.jpg.9d373480f1bdc90b7cd31377f01a068c.jpg

Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is?

 

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Things are pointing to at least EF-4, whether it's what we can tell based on damage photos (yes, there are some limitations at just looking at pictures) but also various radar data.  I also feel like we can use the death toll as a proxy.  Generally speaking, you are not going to get the kind of death count we are looking at from anything under EF-4, unless maybe it's a freak circumstance such as an outdoor event being hit or nothing but trailer parks, which we don't have in this case.

TWC had someone from the Paducah NWS going over their damage assessments.

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5 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is?

The SPC did an excellent job forecasting this event, especially given short-term model guidance that day. It wasn't until around 16z Friday when the CAM runs began to catch on to the overperforming surface temps/dews and started to realize the nightmarish potential of that day. The SPC also did an amazing job with their timely and descriptive MDs as the event unfolded. It's easy to say that they could've gone with a high risk after everything is said and done, but given the model guidance and general expectations for Friday its fair to say that they did a fantastic job.

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Re: SPC…

I’m a well known hater of them in this sub-forum, but in this instance they did fairly well. It’s easy to say in hindsight they could have used a high risk, but in reality heading into the event you definitely couldn’t say that…as a moderate risk was adequate.

The one argument you could possibly make is that for the evening outlook update, they could have expanded ENH and MOD probabilities across states like IL, IN and KY.

But outside of that everything went well, and they used countless MCD’s to cover short term thoughts.


.

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