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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly...Novie has a slight positive correlation to winter, I believe...so his post, aside from correctly characterizing the fall as one of the mildest on record, doesn't make much sense.

If I was agreeing with you, you would say that I am making sense lol...

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not that it matters at day 45, but I didn't think it was brutal...I see what you mean about the EPO ridge collapsing, but a couple of caveats...

1) Signals at that extensive lead time can get muted.

2) The PV is really biased to our side of the globe just N of Hudson's Bay, though fairly stout...I think we'd have chances in that set up.

I would take that look...its actually not that mild here.

1642723200-I00Nl9bMItk.png

Looks like room for scooter highs in QC and Swfe

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

If I was agreeing with you, you would say that I am making sense lol...

Yes, because this isn't a subjective argument....if anything, there is an inverse correlation between Sept/Oct and winter. It not about agreeing with me, its about correctly interpreting data. If you would like to argue that this winter will be well below normal in snowfall, feel free, but it won't be because of how mild October was.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, because this isn't a subjective argument....if anything, there is an inverse correlation between Sept/Oct and winter. It not about agreeing with me, its about correctly interpreting data.

Well you are entitled to your thoughts and opinions and I am entitled to mine. We disagree.....good luck with your cold and snowy winter forecast. 

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well you are entitled to your thoughts and opinions and I am entitled to mine. We disagree.....good luck with your cold and snowy winter forecast. 

My forecast wasn't cold, it was near normal. Your thoughts and opinions are worthless when they run counter to facts, as are mine.

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I hope he is going to be right BUT at this point there needs to be a massive pattern change.  I find the bolded interesting because you begin to look for winter weather in October...

I agree...its not the start to the season I expected. You are right that the collection data really intensifies in October, but TBH, it never stops....

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps in the new climate regime the fall is going to be weighed more heavily...

Yea, maybe...possible. In that respect, we will need to wait to see. In the grand scheme of things, we have such a minuscule amount of data that correlations can always change. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, maybe...possible. In that respect, we will need to wait to see. In the grand scheme of things, we have such a minuscule amount of data that correlations can always change. 

one of the problems is comparing current day  temps/precip to 30 year norms. Current day temps should be compared to the long term data set for reporting stations. And yes I do realize that the "official" gathering place for the data has changed within cities and towns. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...its not the start to the season I expected. You are right that the collection data really intensified in October, but TBH, it never stops....

BINGO...it never does stop.

I think alot of the early looks ahead to winter that early (heck probably even going into late summer) stem with those involved in energy demand/forecasting. 

But I have to agree...at least from the minimal work I've done with attempting long-range forecasting there is not a whole heck of correlation between fall/winter. Significant changes happen to the northern hemisphere during this period from changing wavelengths to changing correlations between teleconnectors and the overall pattern. Also, you can have significant short-term weather phenomena which can result in a significant hemispheric pattern change. For example, perhaps a significant recurving typhoon in the PAC or a monster ATL storm which completely re-shapes the NAO or a significant stratospheric event. 

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

one of the problems is comparing current day  temps/precip to 30 year norms. Current day temps should be compared to the long term data set for reporting stations. And yes I do realize that the "official" gathering place for the data has changed within cities and towns. 

Absolutely right....it makes the use of analogs more challenging, certainly, but doesn't strip them of their value IMO.

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