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OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021


wdrag
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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM looks like it could be a possibility with the fast flow putting  us in the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This may mean that the recent Euro fix worked for East Coast storms. Those tucked in low solutions from the GFS don’t really match the pattern.

E6260CB5-A994-44D0-A438-D506CE4D3D53.thumb.png.79e8bb3ca52b3576538f365dec7238c0.png

A987F863-93A2-4EF6-BD76-0569EFC7E1EB.thumb.png.312210ce3103d0774633b7a31b2474c1.png

 

 

The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow 

 

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow 

 

 

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even the ICON is more logical than the GFS

It's possible to get a phase in a fast flow pattern but it's not really likely.

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Weak and fast flow is the only way we have a chance to snow in the metro. This might be one of those situations where it works out for us 

And we can get it to snow in a warm pattern in this area. Heck, February 18 was a torch and we still had 3-7 inches that month 

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49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow 

 

That’s why many people were disappointed when the NCEP chose the FV3 core over the MPAS.

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/

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3 minutes ago, WeatherANDR said:

Just a friendly reminder - EFAS pronounced E PHASE is a component covering East based phasing ::: ECMWF might be having issues assessing the low system level sensor data providing samples injection into the main algorithm. Looks like a serious IT incident. Tropical performance was degraded since very good performance on hurricane Sandy 2012 (IMO). GFSv16 seems like OK.

Three components on this storm Northern SW (weak) Horizontal SW and some pop up vorticity moist phasing with the two pieces mentioned this is a tough set-up.

Screenshot 2021-12-05 at 14-42-28 Service status ECMWF.png

Since when?  Hasn’t had a storm in days, no data is much better than the GFS with all the data

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45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

Screenshot_20211205-191925_Facebook.jpg

From the related article:

Wednesday has the potential to cause a bit of havoc for the tri-state with the chance of the city and surrounding counties seeing "significant" snowfall if the current incoming system stays the course, Storm Team 4 says. 

Three factors argue for a very low probability of significant (6” or greater) snowfall:

1. The current pattern. The fast flow and absence of blocking will not allow any system to stay around sufficiently long to produce a significant snowfall.

2. The most snowfall for NYC during the December 1-20 period with an EPO+, AO+, PNA- was 4.7”. One would need very strong evidence to set aside historic experience. Such evidence does not exist (see #3).

3. Aside from two GFS runs, the guidance favors a light event. Out of the 51 EPS members, just one shows 3” of snow and 3 show 1” or more. 26 show no measurable snowfall (12/5 12z run). 

The headline and article do not serve the NYC area well.

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021
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