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OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021


wdrag
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The gist of the snowfall yesterday is in this CoCoRaHs map.  Not shown are the icy conditions that followed after clearing set in during the night with subfreezing temps. Just about everyone had measurable melted w.e. as per the latter two maps. Click each for clarity. CP 0.04 includes T wet snow. 

You be the judge of the modeling and results of the original modeling prompt.

Not a whiff but less qpf/snowfall than desired but the general idea was there well in advance. Best short term modeling was the HRRR and HRRRX followed by RGEM/SPC HREF, NAM 12k (NAM 3k was far too conservative). Not sure what the GFS was thinking from start to finish. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2021-12-09 at 6.44.52 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-09 at 6.55.07 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-09 at 6.55.20 PM.png

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