donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 hours ago, RippleEffect said: but what's wrong with this post if the storm goes north 50-75 miles we can definitely get a few inches. Moving from a possible coating to an inch to 1”-3” does not translate into a significant snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: From the related article: Wednesday has the potential to cause a bit of havoc for the tri-state with the chance of the city and surrounding counties seeing "significant" snowfall if the current incoming system stays the course, Storm Team 4 says. To be blunt, this “Storm Team” should ride the proverbial bench. Three factors argue for a very low probability of significant (6” or greater snowfall): 1. The current pattern. The fast flow and absence of blocking will not allow any system to stay around sufficiently long to produce a significant snowfall. 2. The most snowfall for NYC during the December 1-20 period with an EPO+, AO+, PNA- was 4.7”. One would need very strong evidence to set aside historic experience. Such evidence does not exist (see #3). 3. Aside from two GFS runs, the guidance favors a light event. Out of the 51 EPS members, just one shows 3” of snow and 3 show 1” or more. 26 show no measurable snowfall (12/5 12z run). The headline and article do not serve the NYC area well. they do that for the views in my opinion. this storm has a "miss" written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Moving from a possible coating to an inch to 1”-3” does to translate into a significant snowfall. i agree the most i see is a slushy inch or two. long island could get a nice surprise if the rates are good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, RippleEffect said: they do that for the views in my opinion. this storm has a "miss" written all over it Very likely, but it isn’t responsible nor professional. It puts marketing ahead of scientific integrity. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 @MJO812 SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: @MJO812 SREF's? Yawn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Nam came north a little 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Progressive pattern for this low which is modeled weak and a fast out to sea south of the NYC forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: Progressive pattern for this low which is modeled weak and a fast out to sea south of the NYC forecast area. This should come somewhat north with no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Lets see what the 00Z runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 The ICON may have ticked ever so slightly NW or organized and the RGEM as well but they werent extremely notable moves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Gfs went northwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 GFS definitely north and a bit more organized. we need the euro to jump in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: GFS definitely north and a bit more organized. we need the euro to jump in Gefs ticked north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 We've seen this movie before... is the north trend coming? How far will it go... nobody knows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Gefs north of 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Ukie is far right Good night weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gefs north of 18z so no blocking is good in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wtf is it raining so hard in the middle of the night? Look at the VAD wind profiles from the OKX radar, that will tell the story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 I think we're all going to see a little snow Wednesday, some places maybe a little more than an inch. Probably no big deal on TREATED pavements- especially NYC and much of LI, but jury out on snowfall rates. What follows is my opinion expressed to a FB group of friends on what seems to be coming. I'll let this idle, hopefully for 24 hours and reconsider tomorrow morning, not wanting to pitch and roll with every model nuance. Good Monday morning everyone, It's Dec 6 and what follows is nothing major, but a caution from Baltimore northward to I84. Will detail a little more tomorrow. Before what could be a rather mild period during mid-month, we've got to get there. Looks like several hours of snow Wednesday (the 8th), beginning during the morning drive time and ending by dark; Boston probably confined to between Noon-9PM. Amounts most areas generally an inch or less, but untreated surfaces will be slippery for a little while Wednesday morning. This mood snow should be a little more than what most of us have experienced this season and might require slowing down a bit. I added a graphic showing the chance of morethan 1" of snow...for now it's not a big chance (less than 30%). There could be a short period of ice or light snow for the I84 corridor Friday morning the 10th. Posted 607A/6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Still a fairly sloppy setup, even on models which do show something. There may be a shadow zone somewhat as the bulk of the snow depicted by most guidance outside of ERN areas is not even from the coastal. Sometimes as you get closer that screw zone becomes more evident and bigger on models. If anyone in the metro pulls 2 or more inches from this one its a big W though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 What an awful performance from the gfs Is there any model that we can trust this winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 9z Sref plumes increased a bit over previous version. Has 1"-2" area wide. Also, this still has time to move a bit NW today and tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 45 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What an awful performance from the gfs Is there any model that we can trust this winter? It's a delicate setup with northern stream interaction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Nam is coming in stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 NAM bumped a tad NW again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 NAM is a really good run for LI. But 1-2 more bumps NW, puts NYC and NJ more in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: NAM is a really good run for LI. But 1-2 more bumps NW, puts NYC and NJ more in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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