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Winter Banter

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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rclab
rclab

Good evening Anthony. I always felt the same way and would play carols as I was taking it down. My lost love knew how I felt but wanted the house in order and the children, including me, settled and f

BxEngine
BxEngine

Or maybe the moderators have jobs and lives and we should probably expect adults to act like adults instead.

forkyfork
forkyfork

found a saw whet owl friend today

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

I hope this is the right space for venting but Im starting to get really really sick of NYC area weather. Tired of seeing every blizzard go SE and every marginal event be junk and tired of every summer night above 70 and humid. I hope to be able to move in a few years.  

we have two predominant storm tracks. one is north of the area and the other is south of the area.  You really saw that this year, as you're seeing both ACY and BOS do much better than us.   This is actually a rather common pattern you also saw it in the 80s.

The SWFE bowling ball pattern that hit us the hardest were most common in the 90s and have become rare again.  It's actually better to be both north and south of here to get better snowstorms than it is to be here

 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we have two predominant storm tracks. one is north of the area and the other is south of the area.  You really saw that this year, as you're seeing both ACY and BOS do much better than us.   This is actually a rather common pattern you also saw it in the 80s.

The SWFE bowling ball pattern that hit us the hardest were most common in the 90s and have become rare again.  It's actually better to be both north and south of here to get better snowstorms than it is to be here

 

What happened to the Benchmark tracks? It seems everything is either cutters, cross country storms running inland, or storms tracking east of the benchmark lately. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we have two predominant storm tracks. one is north of the area and the other is south of the area.  You really saw that this year, as you're seeing both ACY and BOS do much better than us.   This is actually a rather common pattern you also saw it in the 80s.

The SWFE bowling ball pattern that hit us the hardest were most common in the 90s and have become rare again.  It's actually better to be both north and south of here to get better snowstorms than it is to be here

 

It seems that way, I'm not sure about south but definitely better east lol it seems either Jersey Coast to Eastern LI to Boston is one prime zone for the big blizzards and then you have to get either north of I84 or west of the I87/I84 intersection to hit the next area that sees good snow.  

Central and Eastern NE seem like such a sweet spot to live because they get hammered by coastals and can get hit hard by SWFE as well.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

It seems that way, I'm not sure about south but definitely better east lol it seems either Jersey Coast to Eastern LI to Boston is one prime zone for the big blizzards and then you have to get either north of I84 or west of the I87/I84 intersection to hit the next area that sees good snow.  

Central and Eastern NE seem like such a sweet spot to live because they get hammered by coastals and can get hit hard by SWFE as well.  

Yep, I don't know what your average snowfall is, but I would say you need to have at least a 50" snowfall average to get the kind of winters most of us want and preferably higher than that.  My house in the Poconos at 2200 ft averages about 70 inches a year but it's only at the latitude of The Bronx.  It catches both the southern storms and the inland storms.  I can live with not getting the eastern coastals in exchange for constant snowcover and days of light snow that it catches from Lake Effect streamers too.  It even gets a lot of rain from tropical systems.

 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

What happened to the Benchmark tracks? It seems everything is either cutters, cross country storms running inland, or storms tracking east of the benchmark lately. 

I think it's the lack of Atlantic blocking.  Everything has been timed poorly this winter....we had the Atlantic blocking in December but the Pacific was horrible then and January was the one month we could've done well but we lost the Atlantic blocking when the Pacific got good.  In February, both have been bad.  I didn't know eastern areas and southern areas could do better in a +NAO but I guess thats what happens with late developing coastals.

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

Since there is no March thread: I'll take the liberty and drop this in here.  

First: Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area.  Underdoing the tucked in cold  7AM Friday temps: 

Whats ahead: LOTS of wintry weather events (I think) the next 3 weeks for PA/NJ northward, especially I80-I84-Adirondacks.
 
Sunday the 27th: I84 corridor hilly terrain could have some dustings to an inch late this Sunday-Sunday night with the strong cold frontal passage and trough passage-moist instability change. 
 
Tuesday afternoon-evening March 1 I-84 corridor-Adirondacks: Possible 1-3"
 
Later Wednesday-Thursday morning March 2-3 PA-NJ-CT-MA: 1-4" possible from a clipper that might have a narrow stripe of heavier snowfall- yet to be determined.
 
Next weekend March 5-6: This potential wintry event may turn out too warm for the region south of I-80 but an event of sorts is coming to the northeast USA. Yes I recognize the 5ht may be quite warm but it could b e setting things up for the 6th wave of low pressure on a previously juiced frontal boundary. 
 
Wed-Fri March 9-11: A significant event is outlooked. Thats two weeks in advance.
 
Details regarding areal coverage for the snow or ice have many solutions so nothing is locked in. It just looks like we're in the storm track the next 2-3 weeks and a couple of these may cause similar delays-cancels that we experienced this morning.
 
Have a good weekend. 
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, wdrag said:

First: Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area.  Underdoing the tucked in cold  7AM Friday temps: 

The big CMC upgrade allowed it to move into 2nd place behind the Euro. The UKMET fell back to 3rd and the GFS 4th place. So this matches the 5 day errors we have seen with our storm tracks. The Euro and CMC have been the leaders. The CMC even had that Sunday run back in January which showed the blizzard ahead of the Euro and GFS. 
 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/


https://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2021/11/26/NOCN03_CWAO_262118___50159

  

MAJOR UPGRADE OF WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS OF 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA

ON DECEMBER 1, 2021, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT MAJOR 
UPGRADES TO ITS WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THESE 
UPDATES ARE THE RESULT OF OVER TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, 
AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND WILL PERMIT THE ADDITION OF OVER 170 
INNOVATIONS IN SOME 31 ATMOSPHERIC, OCEANIC, HYDROLOGICAL, AND 
SURFACE FORECASTING SYSTEMS.

 

 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
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Posted
19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Since there is no March thread: I'll take the liberty and drop this in here.  

First: Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) followed in close pursuit by the NAM outperformed all the global models and the NWS Blend of Models for our NYC forum area.  Underdoing the tucked in cold  7AM Friday temps: 

Whats ahead: LOTS of wintry weather events (I think) the next 3 weeks for PA/NJ northward, especially I80-I84-Adirondacks.
 
Sunday the 27th: I84 corridor hilly terrain could have some dustings to an inch late this Sunday-Sunday night with the strong cold frontal passage and trough passage-moist instability change. 
 
Tuesday afternoon-evening March 1 I-84 corridor-Adirondacks: Possible 1-3"
 
Later Wednesday-Thursday morning March 2-3 PA-NJ-CT-MA: 1-4" possible from a clipper that might have a narrow stripe of heavier snowfall- yet to be determined.
 
Next weekend March 5-6: This potential wintry event may turn out too warm for the region south of I-80 but an event of sorts is coming to the northeast USA. Yes I recognize the 5ht may be quite warm but it could b e setting things up for the 6th wave of low pressure on a previously juiced frontal boundary. 
 
Wed-Fri March 9-11: A significant event is outlooked. Thats two weeks in advance.
 
Details regarding areal coverage for the snow or ice have many solutions so nothing is locked in. It just looks like we're in the storm track the next 2-3 weeks and a couple of these may cause similar delays-cancels that we experienced this morning.
 
Have a good weekend. 

Walt, feel free to start up March thread.

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even out to 5 days, the CMC has moved into 2nd place behind the Euro. The RGEM/GGEM have had the benefit of big recent upgrades. The GFS is now last behind the Euro, CMC, and UKMET. The EMC needs to reach out to other modeling centers to see what they are doing right.

The big CMC upgrade allowed it to move into 2nd place behind the Euro. The UKMET fell back to 3rd and the GFS 4th place. So this matches the 5 day errors we have seen with our storm tracks. The Euro and CMC have been the leaders. The CMC even had that Sunday run back in January which showed the blizzard ahead of the Euro and GFS. 
 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/


https://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2021/11/26/NOCN03_CWAO_262118___50159

  

MAJOR UPGRADE OF WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS OF 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA

ON DECEMBER 1, 2021, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT MAJOR 
UPGRADES TO ITS WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THESE 
UPDATES ARE THE RESULT OF OVER TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, 
AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND WILL PERMIT THE ADDITION OF OVER 170 
INNOVATIONS IN SOME 31 ATMOSPHERIC, OCEANIC, HYDROLOGICAL, AND 
SURFACE FORECASTING SYSTEMS.

 

 

KUDOS on your helpful excellent post and to the CMC for their upgrade!!.  I knew I wasn't seeing things.  Even when I was working prior to April 2018 retirement, CMC needed to be reckoned with in the 2000-2018 time frame for winter storms.  

I will write NCEP today (when time) to ask about the emergency upgrade for the GFS on positive snow depth change.  I guess it won't happen til the fall but this is a terrible failing of the GFS (in my opinion).  

As you know, I care mostly about Hazardous winter weather IMPACT. I love snow but it's the impact that most concerns my friends.  Despite the terrible explicit snow forecasts of the GFS/UKMET, when they paint big amounts which you know can be ice... then realize the cue. If you look back on this event (as far as you can) the UK/GFS were hammering to near I95 and northwestward. That's where I look for a travel problem.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Oh you’re something 

I don't find trying to figure out 5 letter words particularly exciting.

Sooner or later they'll run out of words and this craze will end.

Humans are like a herd of sheep, they like to go together, no matter how foolish the direction is that they go in.

Make them 10 letters or longer and then you'll pique my interest.

Actually variable length is the best and give each person the same number of guesses as the number of letters in the word.

 

 

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
On 2/24/2022 at 6:03 PM, HVSnowLover said:

What happened to the Benchmark tracks? It seems everything is either cutters, cross country storms running inland, or storms tracking east of the benchmark lately. 

One of the problems is that the models have a problem picking up the location of development/intensification of the low pressure.  Many times, 5-7 days out, models prog storms developing or re-developing along the coast, further south.  This gives us snow lovers false hope.  Then the models will "cave" as the target date approaches and keeps showing development farther and farther north.  This changes a forecast from a decent snow potential, to sleet, then finally, an all rain situation.

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

Did anyone else see that DT’s twitter account got banned? Lol I didn’t see it but I read that he supposedly went on a cursing tirade against someone who posted on one of his twitter feeds and wished cancer and death on them. That guy is a legit demented psychopath and I’m not saying that to be funny. Dude has some serious mental issues, I’ve seen some of his attacks  on social media over the years and they are disturbing to say the least  

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