blackngoldrules Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Not to bring people down but to me a lot of times it comes down to timing of the storm. For example: yesterday I received close to 4 inches of snow in a 4 to 5 hour period. We had 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow and I was able to see it and be in it. What if we get 5-7 inches of snow with the next storm and the majority of it falls from midnight to 8:00 am? Big deal I wake up to all that snow on the ground and the snow is is winding down to light stuff and is over. Then I get to shovel it. Not fun but we got a 7 inch snowfall. Big wow. Question for everyone here. 1. Would you rather have 4 inches fall in 4 hours with big flakes during the day or 2. A foot of snow overnight while we sleep and is over when you wake up? I go with 1. Well, since I have to work Saturday, I'd take number 1, just because I have to go to bed early to get up early and then have to drive in it. If I was off Saturday, I'd probably stay up a lot of the night and watch it fall, especially since this could be our last significant one if it works out.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Would never give up a foot of snow just cause it fell at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 850 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 OHZ050-059-068-069-PAZ008-009-014>016-020>023-029-031-073>076- WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-111000- /O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.220312T0600Z-220313T0600Z/ Jefferson OH-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Venango-Forest-Butler-Clarion- Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion- Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston- Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Caldwell, Greensburg, Woodsfield, Butler, Rowlesburg, Tionesta, Kittanning, Hendricks, New Martinsville, Brookville, Monessen, Canaan Valley, Uniontown, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Weirton, Murrysville, Lower Burrell, Waynesburg, Hazelton, Donegal, Steubenville, Moundsville, Indiana, Ford City, Wheeling, Thomas, Martins Ferry, Canonsburg, Ohiopyle, Washington, Follansbee, Franklin, Ligonier, Terra Alta, Davis, Clarion, New Kensington, Fairmont, Champion, Morgantown, Latrobe, Bruceton Mills, Beaver Falls, Monaca, Saint George, Aliquippa, Kingwood, Parsons, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Punxsutawney, St. Clairsville, Coopers Rock, and Oil City 850 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph possible in the Laurel Highlands and the higher terrain of West Virginia. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Roads will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The strong wind could bring down tree limbs or power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 They are doubling down. NAM isn't bad just seems drier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS continues to look pretty good. Most everything else continues to look pretty meh. Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 If I’m not mistaken GFS has been colder and had high snowfalls the last few storms and caves at the last minute. Seems to be the truth is in the middle so a 2-5” storm seems about right. I’ll take it at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: If I’m not mistaken GFS has been colder and had high snowfalls the last few storms and caves at the last minute. Seems to be the truth is in the middle so a 2-5” storm seems about right. I’ll take it at this point! I hope it's not on the lower end of your range. The only model I've seen that low is the UK Met. But the UK Met looks to be off in la-la land compared to everything else. Even the Euro would support 3"+ areawide. With the exception of the UK Met, I think there's actually much better model agreement with this than the typical storm. We're often looking at guidance showing 6"+ in places and other guidance showing rain/mix. The GFS and Canadian are showing around 7" in Pittsburgh. Most of the other shorter term guidance seems to be in the 4-5" range, maybe 6". Even the newly completed 03z RAP run, which I thought looked horrible, brings a solid 4-5" for most of the area with 6-7" in Greene and Fayette Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 If I were to make a call based on the current weight of guidance, I'd say 4-5" north of the city. There could be a bit more north of I-80 if some lake enhancement/lake effect were to occur. Looks like about 5" in the city and immediate 'burbs, with perhaps 6 inches down towards Elizabeth/Jefferson. A bit more south of I-70, with some 7 inch amounts possible in southern Washington, Greene and Fayette Counties. The Laurel Highlands look to have the best chance to see more than 7 inches of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I wonder where the water channel is pulling from. 1-3” tomorrow night then 1” or less Saturday. That’s 2-4” max. Very glad to hear more agreement than usual on the models. Maybe that bodes we’ll for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said: I wonder where the water channel is pulling from. 1-3” tomorrow night then 1” or less Saturday. That’s 2-4” max. Very glad to hear more agreement than usual on the models. Maybe that bodes we’ll for us here. Yeah, I just checked. They do have 1-4" (1-3" Fri. night and less than an inch Saturday) which is actually down from 2-6" earlier. The lower end of that range doesn't seem credible. I mean it could be right but I don't see any model support for less than 2" at all, the upper part of that range (3,4") isn't too far off from what I'm thinking (4,5" maybe 6" south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 00z UKMET finally got a clue. This is with 10:1 ratios since Pivotal doesn't have a Kuchera map, but ratios should be more like 15:1. So you can increase these totals by about 50% to make it match the other Kuchera maps. Even so, now brings 4-6 inches from southern Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, and 2-4 inches north. With ratios, would be more like 6-8 inches south and 3-5 inches north, which is now not too dissimilar to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Still on the lower end, since even with ratios, would be just under 4 inches in the city center. But at least now it's more or less in line with the rest of the guidance. Which is why I said I think there's actually greater agreement than usual. With the UKMet more in line, it looks like the lowest guidance - RAP, Euro, UK - would still support about 4" or so in the city, with the highest guidance - GFS, Canadian - showing about 7" or so. That's a pretty tight spread, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Nws lowered totals. Wwa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 alright time for the usual last minute NW shift now, right????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: alright time for the usual last minute NW shift now, right????? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Commence melt downs because we get 4" instead of 8". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Commence melt downs because we get 4" instead of 8". Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95. Exactly, it's time! On last winter gasp (likely) and move forward. Hopefully, no snow on Mother's Day this year, though a very heavy rain is pretty usual that day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Commence melt downs because we get 4" instead of 8". Where am I melting down. How about you stop trolling constantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB said: So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset? It will stick around, but by Monday morning it’s mostly gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It will stick around, but by Monday morning it’s mostly gone Meh. Next week looked warm even when we were hoping for a bigger storm, so even that wouldn’t have hung around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR puts down a solid 5”, with some areas of the county exceeding 6” in places that see the lake enhanced bands in NW flow (which the NWS admits may be overdone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, TimB said: Meh. Next week looked warm even when we were hoping for a bigger storm, so even that wouldn’t have hung around long. What I want to see is how long some of these glacier type snow piles stick around. They are pretty solid because of the ice storms and there are still some at Ross park 5 or 6 feet high. If we add a bit to them maybe they stick till April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: What I want to see is how long some of these glacier type snow piles stick around. They are pretty solid because of the ice storms and there are still some at Ross park 5 or 6 feet high. If we add a bit to them maybe they stick till April? How? I thought there was a Ross snow hole in the MLK storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 This is gonna overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I'll be in deep creek for this, looks to be in the bullseye so to speak. Forecast there is 4-8 with 45-55mph winds then possibly localized blizzard conditions in NW flow after the synoptic portion. I didn't plan the trip with the intention to chase but looks like its going to work out. This may ruin my expectation for winter weather in my own yard lol Given the dynamics of this storm and time of year I'd think it has a better chance of over performing even though the track is a bit further SE and more progressive than it looked a few days ago. Keep your expectation in check and enjoy what happens, I think there will still be a period of heavy snow and post frontal passage the wind gusts should be impressive with embedded snow. Most likely our last snow even to track until next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 46 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Where am I melting down. How about you stop trolling constantly. I didn't say you were, but the banter thread might beg to differ. And you really have not one inch of room to talk about trolling. You've done it for two months at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 42 minutes ago, TimB said: So let’s say it’s 4”. Will it survive the sun angle of a mostly cloudy mid-March day with temperatures in the low 20s, or will it be gone before sunset? No doubt it will start melting Sunday but should look pretty wintry Saturday. It is March, snow pack retention is unrealistic. That's why I say go big or go home in March, bring it hot and heavy over a short period of time and enjoy the rates because you know it probably starts melting shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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