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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Heavy snow during the day. We may not get the big totals but you can't beat it if you like winter weather.

Yeah total paste job out there right now. Early morning in March Sun angle not a big influence either especially with heavy rates.

I put the snow shovel / sleds away. Kids boots / gloves literally Monday. Ma Nature calling my bluff. :snowing:

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1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah total paste job out there right now. Early morning in March Sun angle not a big influence either especially with heavy rates.

I put the snow shovel / sleds away. Kids boots / gloves literally Monday. Ma Nature calling my bluff. :snowing:

Me too. I washed the car on Sunday and brought in my snow ruler and put it away on the shelf. Had to get it out again. :ee:

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This morning reminds me of a day in either 1980 or 1981 when I was going to college downtown and I drove to class. We were expecting mixed snow and rain showers and no accumulation and it snowed like this until lunch time. It took me 2 hours to drive home to  West View and we ended up with 6-8 inches of heavy snow. 

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4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Also NAM is looking pretty good for the weekend 

“Pretty good” is an understatement. That’s close to a foot of Kuchera, but as @Burghblizzmentioned, that track may not be realistic. But the NAM seems to make that storm cut a lot more than the other models do. It’s already much improved from its earlier runs.

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1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

12Z NAM for Saturday is a cutter…until it isn’t.

Stops in its tracks in central WV then makes a right and dumps a foot.

Good run for us, although not sure that evolution is realistic. 

It's not a cutter. The low transfers and redevelops to our east. It will be one to watch because depending upon when the transfer happens we could be looking at 2-4 or 6-10. I'd play it safe with the lower totals for now but it will be a nowcast of a storm like this morning. 

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Just to show how quickly things can change here is the NWS Discussion at 7:20 am just as the moderate to heavy snow was falling at my house. 

 

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 720 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow will gradually taper by tonight, with high pressure returning dry weather through Friday. Accumulating snowfall should blanket the region Friday night into Saturday with a crossing cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Recent radar imagery suggests rain and snow overspreading the region this morning as persistent shortwave activity in warm, swly flow plagues the region on the van of a broad, digging central Plains trough. BUFKIT soundings and initial data from the KPIT sounding suggest a relatively warm boundary layer; and with sfc temperature in the 30s across the region, accumulating snowfall should be hindered even with the passage of an 850mb trough later this morning. Cold advection in veering nwly wind should then reinforce mid-level colder air, maintaining snow or rain/snow chances through the duration of the event. However; the aforementioned, mild boundary layer should minimize snowfall accumulation potential, with perhaps inch or so in the highest elevations.

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6 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Just to show how quickly things can change here is the NWS Discussion at 7:20 am just as the moderate to heavy snow was falling at my house. 

 

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 720 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow will gradually taper by tonight, with high pressure returning dry weather through Friday. Accumulating snowfall should blanket the region Friday night into Saturday with a crossing cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Recent radar imagery suggests rain and snow overspreading the region this morning as persistent shortwave activity in warm, swly flow plagues the region on the van of a broad, digging central Plains trough. BUFKIT soundings and initial data from the KPIT sounding suggest a relatively warm boundary layer; and with sfc temperature in the 30s across the region, accumulating snowfall should be hindered even with the passage of an 850mb trough later this morning. Cold advection in veering nwly wind should then reinforce mid-level colder air, maintaining snow or rain/snow chances through the duration of the event. However; the aforementioned, mild boundary layer should minimize snowfall accumulation potential, with perhaps inch or so in the highest elevations.

Very interesting how even the experts can get it wrong and how just a minor change can be a huge bust.

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I was a bit disappointed when western Allegheny county had all the sleet mixing that kept us at 6" when everyone else saw closer to 9".  But now, all is well. The missing 3" finally arrived, albeit rather belatedly.  

In the bullseye of an event that 12 hours ago didn't even exist in the forecast.  Gotta love March!

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