Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[TimB]

Another fun little squall here. Less intense than the first.

[TheClimateChanger]

The GDPS looks a bit more realistic to me with its depiction

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The GDPS looks a bit more realistic to me with its depiction

Someone isn’t going to like this…

Also that’s the 0z. 12z is similar but even weaker. Does give us some ice at the beginning.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB said:

7” and never changes to rain. I’d take that. 

Seems that produce more than 7” just based on the size.

[TimB]

19 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Seems that produce more than 7” just based on the size.

Who knows. The EC is ugly and gives us zero snow and almost all rain, so anything can happen.

[Burghblizz]

I’m not watching every run this week if the GFS is in its own. (I say that now)

 

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

I’m not watching every run this week if the GFS is in its own. (I say that now)

 

I’m with you. If this isn’t another complete waste of a whole bunch of qpf, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

[TimB]

18z GFS continues to weenie us in:

[Ahoff]

5 hours ago, TimB said:

Who knows. The EC is ugly and gives us zero snow and almost all rain, so anything can happen.

GFS is better this winter, lol.  Ride it to the end, haha!

[KPITSnow]

34 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

GFS is better this winter, lol.  Ride it to the end, haha!

Like with the 1/19 storm where it was giving us 16 inches a day out?

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

32 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

GFS is better this winter, lol.  Ride it to the end, haha!

It's been better, but its to cold usually in the medium to long range. That doesn't instill a lot of confidence when your riding the line.

Doesn't mean it will always be wrong but if it's on its own giving us snow vs mix or rain on the others you have to keep your expectations in check.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Like with the 1/19 storm where it was giving us 16 inches a day out?

 

No, where it recognized a warning level event a week out, except in your backyard.

[Gordo74]

11 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Like with the 1/19 storm where it was giving us 16 inches a day out?

 

I submit exhibit ZZ of everyone dropping this but you. 

[TimB]

NWS seems to know how this late week system plays out, much to our disappointment:

The NAM/NAM3k
has done historically well with the temperature-profiles with
systems like this, so that`ll be something to pay close attention to
when it gets within forecast range (84/60hrs). Hint: warmer air
aloft always wins.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS seems to know how this late week system plays out, much to our disappointment:

The NAM/NAM3k
has done historically well with the temperature-profiles with
systems like this, so that`ll be something to pay close attention to
when it gets within forecast range (84/60hrs). Hint: warmer air
aloft always wins.

I read that this morning and was going to make a similar post bolding that last sentence. 

If the mid-level low tracks south instead of right over us then maybe we see a better outcome. Until then don't get sucked into any model showing mainly winter weather but we probably all know how it plays out.

[Rd9108]

Yeah tbh while I still think March will deliver some potential this next storm needs to have the mix line well below PA/WV border for me to get excited. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Well, it looks like the GFS has surrendered on the snowfall front. Still shows a modest snowfall north and west of the city, but the heaviest accumulations are well off to the north now. Regardless, looks like another precipitation bomb. So probably a good idea to keep an eye on this as their could be more significant ice accumulations for parts of the region. Looking at the temperatures shown on the GFS (probably underdone) but they keep it generally below freezing for the city (29-31) until the low approaches when it spikes into the low/mid 30s for a few hours, before dropping back into the 20s.

[TimB]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, it looks like the GFS has surrendered on the snowfall front. Still shows a modest snowfall north and west of the city, but the heaviest accumulations are well off to the north now. Regardless, looks like another precipitation bomb. So probably a good idea to keep an eye on this as their could be more significant ice accumulations for parts of the region. Looking at the temperatures shown on the GFS (probably underdone) but they keep it generally below freezing for the city (29-31) until the low approaches when it spikes into the low/mid 30s for a few hours, before dropping back into the 20s.

Look for those ice accumulations to go away over the next day or two as well. We’re going to waste yet another inch plus of February precipitation on plain rain.

[north pgh]

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, it looks like the GFS has surrendered on the snowfall front. Still shows a modest snowfall north and west of the city, but the heaviest accumulations are well off to the north now. Regardless, looks like another precipitation bomb. So probably a good idea to keep an eye on this as their could be more significant ice accumulations for parts of the region. Looking at the temperatures shown on the GFS (probably underdone) but they keep it generally below freezing for the city (29-31) until the low approaches when it spikes into the low/mid 30s for a few hours, before dropping back into the 20s.

No surprise here. 1-2 inches off the initial WAA slug on the front then a quick change to sleet / freezing rain / plain rain. The period of freezing rain will be at night so could get dicey for a bit with that. NAM did pretty well with the last event with surface temps so once we get in the 24 - 36 hour period we can monitor that if the overall evolution stays the same for potential ice, but again 30 and heavy rain won't be as dire as what the models show and we will be going up not down in temperature vs the last event.

Overall this is shaping up to be a classic SWPA slop screw storm with low impact. 

[Rd9108]

Ehhhh maybe we get lucky with one more storm in March but this current pattern of warm and soaking rains and then cold and dry is getting kind of old. LA Nina's are pretty awful. I'd take my chances with El Nino and hope we get the cold air to mix with the precip. 

[TimB]

These days, we get more February rain than liquid equivalent of February snow.

[Ahoff]

52 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Ehhhh maybe we get lucky with one more storm in March but this current pattern of warm and soaking rains and then cold and dry is getting kind of old. LA Nina's are pretty awful. I'd take my chances with El Nino and hope we get the cold air to mix with the precip. 

This pattern just started, lol.  January certainly wasn't it.  Only about two weeks into the pattern.

[TimB]

0z GFS: 1.2” QPF from the late week event, 0.13” zr, 0.5” snow, approximately a full inch of precip wasted on rain.

[Rd9108]

27 minutes ago, TimB said:

0z GFS: 1.2” QPF from the late week event, 0.13” zr, 0.5” snow, approximately a full inch of precip wasted on rain.

Luckily this will most likely be all rain since warm air always is further north than modeled. We need a lot of help fast.

[TimB]

PIT is already sitting at 3.42” of precip for February, and I expect that number to be north of 5 by the end of the week. About a half inch of that has been liquid equivalent of snow.

[Rd9108]

Unfortunately after the rain storm this week the EPO is looking to go very negative in the week or 2 of March. Doesn't mean it will snow but the cold air should be around. Who knows maybe we get a nice quick hitter but the sun is starting to be a factor now.

 

[north pgh]

Keep expectations low and then there are chances for surprises. 

[TheClimateChanger]

22 hours ago, TimB said:

Look for those ice accumulations to go away over the next day or two as well. We’re going to waste yet another inch plus of February precipitation on plain rain.

Yes, doesn't look like this should be nearly as big of a deal as the early February event that caused a lot of power disruptions west of Pittsburgh. That one was kind of a unique event with the cold air pressing south. This event looks like it should be a more typical storm track with warm air surging northward. Still most of the models at this point in time would support at least a glaze of ice to perhaps a tenth of an inch or so north of the city. I know some of the ice accumulation maps show a lot more than that north and west of the City, but that's right around 32 so I wouldn't expect much accrual. Won't be 30/31 like in the early February event. Also should rise above freezing areawide at some point with just plain rain for several hours.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yes, doesn't look like this should be nearly as big of a deal as the early February event that caused a lot of power disruptions west of Pittsburgh. That one was kind of a unique event with the cold air pressing south. This event looks like it should be a more typical storm track with warm air surging northward. Still most of the models at this point in time would support at least a glaze of ice to perhaps a tenth of an inch or so north of the city. I know some of the ice accumulation maps show a lot more than that north and west of the City, but that's right around 32 so I wouldn't expect much accrual. Won't be 30/31 like in the early February event. Also should rise above freezing areawide at some point with just plain rain for several hours.

Yeah, for a February that will likely end up pretty darn close to or just slightly above normal temp-wise, it’s likely going to be remembered as a torchy rain fest.