KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Fairly certain this includes sleet. It was like 4-6 inches of snow and 4-6 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Fairly certain this includes sleet. It was like 4-6 inches of snow and 4-6 inches of sleet. Sleet counts as snowfall in the weather records, so if the snowfall maps are completely excluding sleet they are going to come in too low. Normally, it wouldn't make a big difference as sleet accumulations are typically an inch or less. But the GFS shows several hours of heavy sleet with the snowfall maps (even the 10:1) not detecting any accumulation. If that were to actually occur, then yes, 3, 4, 5 inches of sleet are possible, which are being excluded from the snowfall maps. If you get an inch of QPF to fall as sleet at a 3-5:1 snow to liquid ratio, then that's 3-5 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z NAM took a big step SE. Still only rain here through 84 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 12z NAM took a big step SE. Still only rain here through 84 hours. Yep but it was a good 50-100 mile move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Well, well, well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Much better look. At hour 84 (Thursday evening), the NAM is now showing freezing rain for many places north of the city. Still think it's way too amped, I can't see this wave of low pressure just bullying that 1050-1055 mb high pressing south from Canada. Normally, the biggest player is the low pressure system. In this case, however, the strongest feature appears to be that high pressure pushing south from Canada. I would think that arctic high would have a huge say-so in the ultimate track of this storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Icon is a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Bring this one home guys. I think we have a ways to go to get back to the hits models were showing 48 hours ago or so. I don't love the set up with cold chasing the precipitation and good agreement we are starting out in the warm sector. Although, I think last winter we had a similar set up where it did work out (Dec 1st?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS looks like its coming in SE again of the 6z run, need to let it play out a bit further to be sure but front looks more West to East at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: GFS looks like its coming in SE again of the 6z run, need to let it play out a bit further to be sure but front looks more West to East at our latitude. So it looks like about a third of an inch of zr, a ton of sleet, and snowfall that would be warning level in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS looking good. Serve it up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Reeling us into something with massive disappointment potential. If this thing is likely going to fail us, I hope the models bear that out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: So it looks like about a third of an inch of zr, a ton of sleet, and snowfall that would be warning level in and of itself. If it played out like that it would be a pretty rare progression for us and would leave quite a nice pack with staying power I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Hey I will take it. As of yesterday we were looking at maybe a lot of rain and sleet and very little backend snow. At this point I will take 2-4 and up. No disappointment here because I wasn't expecting this to be our storm anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It's only Monday but the trends are really good. The cold high pushing down the cold from Canada will at least keep this from cutting. Let's see what the Canadian says. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Some of that is obviously sleet but it looks like hours 90-108 have all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Hey I will take it. As of yesterday we were looking at maybe a lot of rain and sleet and very little backend snow. At this point I will take 2-4 and up. No disappointment here because we I wasn't expecting this to be our storm anyway. I'm with you, I'll gladly take a slop storm in reverse progression... rn to zr to ip to sn+ lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Quite a conveyor belt of moisture with this. And these waves don’t look overly strong. It I had to guess, Youngstown does much better than us as far as straight snow, but it really is just a timing issue to get us in the really good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, north pgh said: This look will be likelly be a overstated versus Kuchera because I think it pretends frozen is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Ahhhhhhhh I can’t handle this lol. I get so stressed out. Hahahaahaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Burghblizz said: Quite a conveyor belt of moisture with this. And these waves don’t look overly strong. It I had to guess, Youngstown does much better than us as far as straight snow, but it really is just a timing issue to get us in the really good stuff. You know what at this point if Youngstown gets 15 inches for us to get 8 I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, north pgh said: You know what at this point if Youngstown gets 15 inches for us to get 8 I will take it. No doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6z was WAY south and gets us a decent snow eventReverse psychology. I knew it would work. LolSent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 we're back baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Canadian is south too. Not as much snow as GFS but it looks to be more snow than in previous runs and maybe a 4 plus or so at end. I know we have three days but you can't not like the trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: You know what at this point if Youngstown gets 15 inches for us to get 8 I will take it. But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 A footnote at this point, but the GFS continues the good news with a solid advisory level event late in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks. I’m some circles…but there is a great complaint thread for that Another 8-12” would great, especially considering the best contour in the best model isn’t our “forecast” This still “feels” a little NW to me for that, but still time. Gotta get that cold air on the march 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks. I have to respectfully disagree. When you worry about the jackpot city you will always be disappointed. When we received our 20 inch storms in the mid 90's there were people east of me that had 30. Did I worry about that? Not at all. Just trying to stay optimistic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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