Ahoff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Not at all. I don't want a bust, and I still think we get to a respectable total (which, IMO, is >8"), so don't lump me in with him. The doom and gloom looks similar, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 So consensus seems to be 2-3" otg We really don't seem too far off from where the models had projected us to be at this point. Maybe an inch or so lower? Idk. Mixing should be behind us now, I think we made it out ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Pretty dry on the radar right now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, SteelCity87 said: So consensus seems to be 2-3" We really don't seem too far off from where the models had projected us to be at this point. Maybe an inch or so lower? Idk. Mixing should be behind us now, I think we made it out ok. I would agree. Dry slot would be the next culprit but models (HRRR) seem to want to fill it in, so maybe limits damage there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: The doom and gloom looks similar, lol. I wouldn't say it's doom and gloom for me, more or less just matter of fact statements about how we never get all snow out of a winter storm in Pittsburgh and we all should have known better, including the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 HRRR still suggests an additional 9" on top of what has fallen so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: I wouldn't say it's doom and gloom for me, more or less just matter of fact statements about how we never get all snow out of a winter storm in Pittsburgh and we all should have known better, including the NWS. We had a 10" storm in 2018 and nearly a foot last December. Still a chance we hit 10" w this one. I understand the sentiment but recent history has started to reverse this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: I wouldn't say it's doom and gloom for me, more or less just matter of fact statements about how we never get all snow out of a winter storm in Pittsburgh and we all should have known better, including the NWS. My sister in law and her family lived in Pittsburgh (Moon Township) and they said the same thing. They said it was always a couple inches, and ice, ice, ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Maybe the east movement is in progress. Over at wxdisco some posters are reporting the mixing change in eastern and central PA. Hopefully that means the low is moving in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, SteelCity87 said: We had a 10" storm in 2018 and nearly a foot last December. Still a chance we hit 10" w this one. I understand the sentiment but recent history has started to reverse this trend. Exactly, every major storm last year (4 of them) had no p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: My sister in law and her family lived in Pittsburgh (Moon Township) and they said the same thing. They said it was always a couple inches, and ice, ice, ice. Just like Syracuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Exactly, every major storm last year (4 of them) had no p-type issues. 4 of them being the key. It's going to be hard to get 4 of them this year, so the ones we do get better be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Pretty dry on the radar right now. . Won't that fill in? Something similar to this: I was in eastern Ohio for that storm. Was in the 50s at midnight the day before, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s late afternoon. Huge dry slot, then the deformation zone started to fill in and heavy snow bands pushed east and remained in place for 12 hours. Picked up 11 inches overnight. Even PIT recorded 4.3 inches of snow on the southeast edge of the band. Erie had just shy of 15 inches officially, but some areas in Erie and Crawford Counties picked up 2-3 feet of snow. And that was in April, to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 4 of them being the key. It's going to be hard to get 4 of them this year, so the ones we do get better be good. 18z GFS had 2 more storms through the run so who knows lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 4 of them being the key. It's going to be hard to get 4 of them this year, so the ones we do get better be good. You missed the point. No storm had p-type issues last year. That’s remarkable here. So, p-type isn’t always an issue. The next one may be fine. Could be next weekend at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Won't that fill in? Something similar to this: I was in eastern Ohio for that storm. Was in the 50s at midnight the day before, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s late afternoon. Huge dry slot, then the deformation zone started to fill in and heavy snow bands pushed east and remained in place for 12 hours. Picked up 11 inches overnight. Even PIT recorded 4.3 inches of snow on the southeast edge of the band. Erie had just shy of 15 inches officially, but some areas in Erie and Crawford Counties picked up 2-3 feet of snow. And that was in April, to boot. Yes, it will eventually fill in. The most recent HRRRs took the dry slot further east so i was hoping to not deal with it. But yes it will eventually fill in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Areas affected...eastern Ohio/northern and western Pennsylvania/West Virginia Panhandle/western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170138Z - 170745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is forecast over the next several hours from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to the western half of New York. Widespread rates of 1" to 2" per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows an upper low moving eastward across the western Carolinas at this time, with a turn to the northeast -- into Virginia -- expected tonight. Meanwhile, a 994mb surface low analyzed over southeastern Virginia is forecast to retrograde north-northwestward with time, reaching a position over south-central Pennsylvania by sunrise. Currently, a pronounced dry slot is observed nosing northwestward from North Carolina across western Virginia into West Virginia/far southwestern Pennsylvania, near the nose of an 80-plus kt southeasterly low-level jet. Intense low-level warm advection across the Upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians area has resulted in the snowfall becoming mixed with -- or even changing over briefly to -- freezing rain and/or sleet, mainly south of the Mason/Dixon line and southeast of the Ohio River over the past hour. To the north, precipitation has remained in the form of snowfall -- heavy at times across portions of the region as heavier bands spread northward/northwestward. As the aforementioned upper low advances, and the dry slot continues to pivot northeastward with time, the primary wraparound/deformation zone will become established from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to western New York. Within this area, strong ascent, a saturated lower and middle troposphere, and favorable vertical thermal profiles will combine to support persistent, moderate to heavy snowfall through and beyond midnight, with rates 1" per hour and locally near 2" per hour in heavier bands. ..Goss.. 01/17/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 This game reminds me of this storm so far, back and forth garbage and now the pick should change our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Areas affected...eastern Ohio/northern and western Pennsylvania/West Virginia Panhandle/western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170138Z - 170745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is forecast over the next several hours from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to the western half of New York. Widespread rates of 1" to 2" per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows an upper low moving eastward across the western Carolinas at this time, with a turn to the northeast -- into Virginia -- expected tonight. Meanwhile, a 994mb surface low analyzed over southeastern Virginia is forecast to retrograde north-northwestward with time, reaching a position over south-central Pennsylvania by sunrise. Currently, a pronounced dry slot is observed nosing northwestward from North Carolina across western Virginia into West Virginia/far southwestern Pennsylvania, near the nose of an 80-plus kt southeasterly low-level jet. Intense low-level warm advection across the Upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians area has resulted in the snowfall becoming mixed with -- or even changing over briefly to -- freezing rain and/or sleet, mainly south of the Mason/Dixon line and southeast of the Ohio River over the past hour. To the north, precipitation has remained in the form of snowfall -- heavy at times across portions of the region as heavier bands spread northward/northwestward. As the aforementioned upper low advances, and the dry slot continues to pivot northeastward with time, the primary wraparound/deformation zone will become established from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to western New York. Within this area, strong ascent, a saturated lower and middle troposphere, and favorable vertical thermal profiles will combine to support persistent, moderate to heavy snowfall through and beyond midnight, with rates 1" per hour and locally near 2" per hour in heavier bands. ..Goss.. 01/17/2022 Just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Mailman said: Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 Areas affected...eastern Ohio/northern and western Pennsylvania/West Virginia Panhandle/western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170138Z - 170745Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is forecast over the next several hours from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to the western half of New York. Widespread rates of 1" to 2" per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows an upper low moving eastward across the western Carolinas at this time, with a turn to the northeast -- into Virginia -- expected tonight. Meanwhile, a 994mb surface low analyzed over southeastern Virginia is forecast to retrograde north-northwestward with time, reaching a position over south-central Pennsylvania by sunrise. Currently, a pronounced dry slot is observed nosing northwestward from North Carolina across western Virginia into West Virginia/far southwestern Pennsylvania, near the nose of an 80-plus kt southeasterly low-level jet. Intense low-level warm advection across the Upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians area has resulted in the snowfall becoming mixed with -- or even changing over briefly to -- freezing rain and/or sleet, mainly south of the Mason/Dixon line and southeast of the Ohio River over the past hour. To the north, precipitation has remained in the form of snowfall -- heavy at times across portions of the region as heavier bands spread northward/northwestward. As the aforementioned upper low advances, and the dry slot continues to pivot northeastward with time, the primary wraparound/deformation zone will become established from eastern Ohio east-northeastward to western New York. Within this area, strong ascent, a saturated lower and middle troposphere, and favorable vertical thermal profiles will combine to support persistent, moderate to heavy snowfall through and beyond midnight, with rates 1" per hour and locally near 2" per hour in heavier bands. ..Goss.. 01/17/2022 Damn we are right on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: Just north of me. me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Just like Syracuse? Syracuse has been a synoptic wasteland the 3 winters I've lived here. We rely on a similar storm track that you guys do...which has been M.I.A. Might get a sleetfest here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: me too Doesn't mean we can't still see nice rates! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 About 3” so far just had some heavy sleet. Now back to snow. Dry slot coming for a bit, then some heavy bands according to radar. Should end up with 7-“10” if radar forecasting is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Damn we are right on the edge Yeah, that's rough. I guess close enough to hope gets a little further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The models did nail the dry slot days in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Hmm looking at the HRRR seems as though most of AGH would still get another 8-10ish with it dropping off a lot on the eastern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Any of us would have taken 6”+ 2 weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mailman said: The models did nail the dry slot days in advance. All hail king Euro. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Any of us would have taken 6”+ 2 weeks ago. We've waited decades it seems for an apps runner, so to have it dry slot us and have ptype issues is exceptionally dissapointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now