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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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Actual 850 wind speeds. The actual speeds are showing 35kts where 55kts was forecasted. 

332947025_ScreenShot2022-01-16at12_06_43AM.png.16724894ad21a16634bd11b6d4e598fa.png

 

Less windspeed at the 850 = less wind to push the warm air in.

Sorry about the multiple posts. I tried to fit all of the graphics in one post. I couldnt do it. 

 

Overall point- there is some differences in the NAM 3K from the actual meso analysis in some key factors that i think will play an impact on our storm...

 

Just some food for thought

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Final thoughts on the night because we are all up for a long one tomorrow.

 

We are in a really good spot. 10-12+ is on the table for sure. Good trends today and we can still see a shift tomorrow. 50 miles to the east and we might be in the bingo zone of 12-15 or more. 

It's all there for us to enjoy now. 

See ya tomorrow. Dream of snow.:snowing:

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Woke up and checked the HRRR at 06z. It is drifting the wrong way with the dry slot. It now gets us into it and places the main defo band about 30-50 miles too far west. 
 

It still shows us getting a foot but there is a pretty sharp gradient between 15 inches and getting less than 8 inches if we dry slot wrong. NAM also continues to not budge on us slotting and having mixing issues.

Just al high to depend on where the pivot happens but it will be incredibly painful if we dry slot for hours while Youngstown sits in the deform and gets a foot and a half,

 

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3 minutes ago, Ecanem said:

Fwiw here is the official call from nws at 2 am 

image.png.218da1e5939f74918068ad6963c0acd1.png

And just for fun the “best case” experimental view. That dry slot on NAM is still pretty fierce where I could see a place like Wheeling doubling up Greensburg. But in general, the NAM seems to have lost the total shit show solution, which is one of things I wanted to see.
 

image.thumb.jpeg.8ddf072a570b4c089af72b385e8213d7.jpeg

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Hey all, after a lot of consideration I've moved my chase location to Erie pa. Just want to apologize in advance to my Pitt crew for bringing the bad mojo haha. When I went to met school in Cal U PA Pitt saw some of its lowest snow seasons ever lol. Expect a huge shift somewhere on the 12z models as I'm on the turnpike from Philly haha. 

In all seriousness. This should be a fun event. Gl all

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4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

ehhhh stupid dryslot keeps appearing. HRRR moved towards that idea, we need a nowcasting bust. I want the death band damnit.

Dry slot looked very prominent on the 11z HRRR through 18 hours. I’m watching the 12z to see how quickly it fills in on the full run.

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

For perspective, NWS gives us a 13% chance of 18”+ at PIT. I think I saw the Steelers have a 14% chance of winning.

This storm track defies the odds and the game last week certainly did.  Anything is possible.

 

I'm just shocked at the totals shown.  8" for the low end, what?!  And a 50% of more than a foot!  Crazy.

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Just now, Ahoff said:

This storm track defies the odds and the game last week certainly did.  Anything is possible.

 

I'm just shocked at the totals shown.  8" for the low end, what?!  And a 50% of more than a foot!  Crazy.

That’s the bottom line here. Yes, I want something special, but I think I’m okay with the idea of settling for 8” of snow of the dry slot screws us.

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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That’s the bottom line here. Yes, I want something special, but I think I’m okay with the idea of settling for 8” of snow of the dry slot screws us.

It would be OK, but I think it will be really irritating if Youngstown gets 18 inches and we miss a historic pittsburgh storm by 25 or 50 miles. The issue is every single model basically is showing that band setting up just a little too far west.

It would be nice if just once we truly jackpotted.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

Dry slot arrives at 3z on the HRRR. 6” on the ground at that point.

damnit. this is going to really honestly suck. There is always the chance it pushes back and we miss the slot, but every model now puts highest totals about 50 miles north and west of us. We would still get 10 inches though so not a terrible consolation.

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21 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hey all, after a lot of consideration I've moved my chase location to Erie pa. Just want to apologize in advance to my Pitt crew for bringing the bad mojo haha. When I went to met school in Cal U PA Pitt saw some of its lowest snow seasons ever lol. Expect a huge shift somewhere on the 12z models as I'm on the turnpike from Philly haha. 

In all seriousness. This should be a fun event. Gl all

Well hopefully your bad mojo ends up in a last minute change to a hotel further SE! Erie looks to be in the sweet spot right now and should do well with some lake enhancement on the back end.

Can't say I've ever chased a snow storm, it's either my yard or bust but certainly respect your dedication to seeing big snow and hey it's a good excuse to travel.

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