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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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I guess this is our payback for our first big storm and great December last year. That has been holding me over a bit at least. 
 

That said there haven’t even been many things to track, though I almost prefer that to the storms that we get 24-48 hours out, show 6-10 inches, then we either rain or get slop. 

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I think the new period to watch is from the 16th to the 23rd.  The PNA has relaxed and we have a possible +spike incoming around that time period.  I wasn't sure if a true pattern change would happen but it's clearly in process.  If January ends up cold over the latter half, it might offer multiple chances to overcome our current deficit.  The question would be whether the warmth reloads in February or if a weakening Nina means we don't get shut out totally.

We might also be trending toward another -NAO and a -AO.  Again, still somewhat dependent on long-term solutions that aren't always predictable, but there are good odds that a -NAO in December means the same block returns later in winter.  Even if we were to get everything in one go, we do need some blocking to slow down this flow.

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Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day.  The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens.  We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick.

Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping :snowing: 

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8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day.  The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens.  We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick.

Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping :snowing: 

6z euro snow map has 3-4 for AGH so maybe you get your wish.

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8 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day.  The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens.  We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick.

Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping :snowing: 

I've also noted the subtle but consistent ticks NW of the precip field over the past 36 hours or so, should that be accurate and continue through game time certainly bodes well to maybe snag another inch or so. If the 12z models are NW again today NWS  possibly expands advisories to include Allegheny / Armstrong / Indiana. The speed of the system though will still be tough to overcome.

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I'll enjoy 2-4 falling in colder than typical temps at night where everything should stick. I think potential on this has been limited more and more by how fast moving this will be. Pattern looks better in the longer range maybe something to watch the weekend of the 16th like was shown on yesterday's 12z Euro. 

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59 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It always does when there are p-type concerns, so why wouldn’t it now?

Lol. What was the storm a few years ago where union town  got like 18 inches, and even southern AGC got nearly 10 inches but the city north barely managed 5? We kept saying it had to tick north and it didn’t. 
 

It seems that we always are stuck either 50-100 miles too far north or south.

 

What was really amazing is that until last December we hadn’t had a 10 inch storm in like 10 years and even a 6 inch storm in a long time but if you drive 50 miles in any direction they all had large storms.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

Lol. What was the storm a few years ago where union town  got like 18 inches, and even southern AGC got nearly 10 inches but the city north barely managed 5? We kept saying it had to tick north and it didn’t. 
 

It seems that we always are stuck either 50-100 miles too far north or south.

Was that the January 2016 storm that pounded the Mid-Atlantic?

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Was that the January 2016 storm that pounded the Mid-Atlantic?

Yep, and see my edit. It really is amazing how ideal things seem to have to be to get big storms here, even competitively to places only 50-100 miles from us. I’m sure Morgantown, Youngstown, Altoona, etc have all had more big storms than us the last decade.

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yep, and see my edit. It really is amazing how ideal things seem to have to be to get big storms here, even competitively to places only 50-100 miles from us. I’m sure Morgantown, Youngstown, Altoona, etc have all had more big storms than us the last decade.

I had almost allowed myself to forget 1/19/19. Thanks.

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