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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Alot of this is sleet, but the frozen signal for Thurs/Fri is close to being locked in now.

gfs_asnow_neus_22.png

Steve I suspect this will be the biggest winter event of the season in these parts....all it takes is one event to get us back to near normal for the year.....

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I doubt this Friday is very interesting. Ice events never pan out here. Probably some mixed precip at best.

I expect March to be BRUTAL. As always, a fair weather February results in a majorly cold March. Don't need no weather models to tell you that you should all just realize it by now lol. I went perch fishing today so I'm already acclimating myself to another 4 weeks of 30 degree temps. Bundle up boys - this ride ain't over.

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3 hours ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I doubt this Friday is very interesting. Ice events never pan out here. Probably some mixed precip at best.

I expect March to be BRUTAL. As always, a fair weather February results in a majorly cold March. Don't need no weather models to tell you that you should all just realize it by now lol. I went perch fishing today so I'm already acclimating myself to another 4 weeks of 30 degree temps. Bundle up boys - this ride ain't over.

Ice fishing, or just regular? Where at? Sorry I'm so full of questions, I've always wanted to go ice fishing for perch but it's yet another hobby I have yet to invest into. I did see some people ice fishing several weeks ago during our super cold snap, so I know it is feasible in our area at least.

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GFS 6z is still running but the 0z's change was to push most of the the ice further north and end as rain along Philly metro after an initial icing... The 0z Euro is generally mostly rain along the same southern part of the CWA through the event.  It's all gonna depend on where the freezing line sets up.

floop-gfs-2022022100.prateptype_cat.conus-0z-feb25-26-storm-animated-02212022.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022022100.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus-0z-feb25-26-storm-animated-02212022.gif

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6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

12z NAM at range is a sleet bomb. Looks to occur mainly during the daytime, so there's that. Still, little point analyzing the NAM beyond 36 hours. 

Seeing the trend toward 2 waves now....which can sometimes spell a significant frozen event interior. Wave 1 Thursday, pulls down some CAA in its wake, then wave 2 Friday likely beginning as frozen in SE PA but flips wave 2 to rain unless in the LV where I would start to be concerned. Still a ways to go but definitely evolving hour by hour . RGEM is also quite cold moreso than the globals. 

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23 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

12z NAM at range is a sleet bomb. Looks to occur mainly during the daytime, so there's that. Still, little point analyzing the NAM beyond 36 hours. 

It has some odd antecedent thing going before it starts to align with the other models to show the main event going into the weekend (which mostly occurs outside of the NAM's range at the moment).

ETA - the 6z hires EC is actually showing that antecedent feature too but it has it further south than the NAM so it slides below the CWA (and is all rain).

floop-nam-2022022112.ref1km_ptype.conus-12z-feb24-26-storm-animated-02212022.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2022022106.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus-6z-feb24-26-storm-animated-02212022.gif

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23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

12z GFS holding as a mix/ZR to rain for the southern part of the CWA, keeping the sleet mostly north.

ETA the 12z Canadian showing the same type of setup.

floop-gfs-2022022112.prateptype_cat.conus-12z-feb25-26-storm-animated-02212022.gif

floop-gdps-2022022112.prateptype.conus-12z-feb25-26-storm-animated-02212022.gif

Well if we do get an ice storm, this time a year it doesn’t usually take too long to warm up and melt 

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