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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The inflated Kuchera makes it look better, regular 10:1 is slightly better than the Canadian. But the further east lean brings back the abhorent boxing day gradient.

 

I always keep the jacked up Kuchera accums in my mind and adjust. Still not bad at all and the winds should be solid. Just didn't want a GFS crash...

22F/DP 11F

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well posters,  please send this potential storm to the graveyard of fails  for this winter season.  Never even got out of the starting gate.  The dry progressive air pattern keeps on beating these storms down as they form off the coast.   Whats next?

Whats so heartbreaking for snow lovers is that the GFS long range indicates a fantasy storm five days out only to never reappear again. Run after run indicates a 6+ inch storm only to disappear and get pushed back for another week. You cannot even establish any pattern to this progressive split flow. 

Again, the only concern I have is that the  drought potential is not going away in this current weather pattern and if we do not get some significant precip whether rain or snow, into the ground water tables, they will fall pretty quick in early April as temps rise. 

Our current weather pattern scenario reminds me a lot of the winter of 93 before the March superstorm hit. It will take a major hitter to break this stubborn pattern for sure.

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image.png.546f4602c25565d8e0714c8e5342276c.png

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" - factoid this is the same annual snowfall as Chicago IL:  East Nantmeal Twp. Total Seasonal Snowfall to Date Winter Season 2021-22 (7.1") / January 23 (0.2")/ January 20 (0.3") / January 7 (4.3")/ January 16 (2.3")  Snow totals by season:  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and your #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 source for Facebook Weather at the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx/

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9 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Euro keeps hope alive...

Well from the Inkie article I posted upthread, including the rest of Tony Gigi's (rainshadow when he posted here) comment -

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Tony Gigi, a former weather service meteorologist who now helps the philly.wx weather-discussion board, suggested that the Euro seems to have performed well in predicting the behavior of the upper atmosphere, but PennDot doesn’t plow up there.

“Maybe it has reached a critical point where improvements in one area ... have caused degradations in other areas which have more of an impact,” he said.

I think this Euro run might be a bit out to lunch (with a lot of obvious extrapolation  going on because it's the 6z), so will have to see what the 12z does with more data.

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