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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


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3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I heard it from another local MET within the week  and said WTF? Then when I heard it from Glenn today...well there may be something to this?

Not a stat geek so who knows? Maybe someone can shed light..

 

Philly actually is average so far for this month.  

 

Philly climate avg temp jan 22.png

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As an obs, I noticed the non-diurnal temp trend last night where I actually hit a high yesterday of 34 about 10 minutes before midnight and the temp continued rising until just after 12:30 am with a high of 35, but had finally been on the downswing.

Currently 32 with dp 28.

I know it's the 6z but here are the latest GFS and its ensembles.

floop-gfs-2022012506.prateptype_cat.conus-6z-jan29-storm-01252022.gif

floop-gefs-2022012506.sfcwind_mslp.conus-6z-jan29-storm-01252022.gif

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2 hours ago, BBasile said:

 

Philly actually is average so far for this month.  

I am looking at this chart and can't even remember these warmer days. Certainly felt like an anomolous number of days *with highs in the 30s and 20s to me. Average is skewed a bit by the extreme warmth in the start of the month.

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6 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I heard it from another local MET within the week  and said WTF? Then when I heard it from Glenn today...well there may be something to this?

Not a stat geek so who knows? Maybe someone can shed light..

Classic Urban Heat Island Contamination (PHL) - the airport is no longer an accurate reading and yet we say it is our "official" reading. Below are the MTD temps and departures for some other sites in the area. I wonder if the NWS will look into this growing problem.

PHL 33.8 + 0.1 / PNE 31.1 / ABE 26.3 (-4.0) / ACY 31.6 (-2.7) / Georgetown DE 34.1 (-2.8) / RDG 29.1 (-1.7) / TTN 29.5 (-2.7) / ILG 32.3 (-1.3) / KMQS 28.9 / KPTW 27.2)

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It's been a cold month I don't really need "stats" to tell me that. Way colder than last January but I guess some rogue 51 degree days brought the stats up. Problem with forecasting is no one except me uses feel and life experience for thinking about what has/is going to happen. Ain't everything revolve around a stat or computer model folks.

So the Euro looks great for snow but I don't it verifies. That models been out to lunch longer than Brandon lol I would pay more attention to the other ones. 

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16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Classic Urban Heat Island Contamination (PHL) - the airport is no longer an accurate reading and yet we say it is our "official" reading. Below are the MTD temps and departures for some other sites in the area. I wonder if the NWS will look into this growing problem.

PHL 33.8 + 0.1 / PNE 31.1 / ABE 26.3 (-4.0) / ACY 31.6 (-2.7) / Georgetown DE 34.1 (-2.8) / RDG 29.1 (-1.7) / TTN 29.5 (-2.7) / ILG 32.3 (-1.3) / KMQS 28.9 / KPTW 27.2)

For those who live in dense residential neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia, the temps would probably be even higher in their neighborhoods than the airport, where that ASOS is sitting near the river by an unused runway (at least the last overhead shot that I saw of it some time ago).

So trying to make the temp "less" does no good for the people who live in the city.  There is the need to reflect the reality of their immediate environment and that needs to be factored in for heat advisories or warnings.

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5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

For those who live in dense residential neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia, the temps would probably be even higher in their neighborhoods than the airport, where that ASOS is sitting near the river by an unused runway (at least the last overhead shot that I saw of it some time ago).

So trying to make the temp "less" does no good for the people who live in the city.  There is the need to reflect the reality of their immediate environment and that needs to be factored in for heat advisories or warnings.

Even NE Philadelphia more urban than any suburban locale is running 2.7 degrees below PHL. The man made heat island should not be counted in our climate records in my humble opinion....the fact the above puts climate and Philadelphia area and then pops an above normal January is problematic to say the least!

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23 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That is of course a big problem - PHL is no longer representative of this area......

It's representative of the city of Philadelphia with 1.6 million people.

KPNE is in a less populated part of the city (I remember when it was almost completely undeveloped up there in the "Far Northeast" but that has changed substantially too in recent years) and I live about 5 miles from KLOM (Wings Field in Bluebell) but they are always about 3 - 5 degrees cooler than me (where KPHL is about 3 - 5 degrees warmer).  So these readings are really for their immediate surrounding areas.  I wouldn't expect to have a temp from a unit 35 miles away be representative of me either so I get that.

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's representative of the city of Philadelphia with 1.6 million people.

KPNE is in a less populated part of the city (I remember when it was almost completely undeveloped up there in the "Far Northeast" but that has changed substantially too in recent years) and I live about 5 miles from KLOM (Wings Field in Bluebell) but they are always about 3 - 5 degrees cooler than me (where KPHL is about 3 - 5 degrees warmer).  So these readings are really for their immediate surrounding areas.  I wouldn't expect to have a temp from a unit 35 miles away be representative of me either so I get that.

Still clearly due to the man made heat island all PHL sites should be taken with a grain of salt when trying to show temperature trends for "official" Philadelphia from say the 1880's through today. That is why as my suburban philly data shows a cyclical nature of warming and cooling since the 1890's while PHL is on a consistent upward trend which makes it look like constant warming due to the UHI contamination.

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5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Even NE Philadelphia more urban than any suburban locale is running 2.7 degrees below PHL. The man made heat island should not be counted in our climate records in my humble opinion....the fact the above puts climate and Philadelphia area and then pops an above normal January is problematic to say the least!

The "man made heat island" is the very definition of a cause of "climate change".    I suppose that could be quantitated and you can see what the temps SHOULD be without effects of lots of concrete, asphalt, brick, stone, metal, and industrial exhaust, but that won't reflect the reality.  But I know your position on this and it would be really OT in this thread to delve into that. ;)

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3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Still clearly due to the man made heat island all PHL sites should be taken with a grain of salt when trying to show temperature trends for "official" Philadelphia from say the 1880's through today. That is why as my suburban philly data shows a cyclical nature of warming and cooling since the 1890's while PHL is on a consistent upward trend which makes it look like constant warming due to the UHI contamination.

Yes, "man made" changes have altered the temperatures.  As Joni Mitchell famously sang in the song "Yellow Taxi" - "pave paradise, put up a parking lot".

Thankfully the city (and other urban areas around the country) are tearing up those pavements and barren parking lots and replanting trees and grass to cool the place down.  Having trees around does wonders for shading the ground and keeping it from heating up during the day, only to radiate that back out at night. I know during heatwaves here, the temps might still be in the upper 80s late into the night before finally cooling off.

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Hard to have any confidence in the euro nailing this one while the other models remain so far east  with how it has performed this month in this time frame. 06z gfs did take steps towards it though from 00z. Ensembles still have some big hitters too. Regardless of the coastal though, we should all see 2-4” from the northern stream system which is a decent consolation. On to 12z…

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35 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

It's been a cold month I don't really need "stats" to tell me that. Way colder than last January but I guess some rogue 51 degree days brought the stats up. Problem with forecasting is no one except me uses feel and life experience for thinking about what has/is going to happen. Ain't everything revolve around a stat or computer model folks.

So the Euro looks great for snow but I don't it verifies. That models been out to lunch longer than Brandon lol I would pay more attention to the other ones. 

Brandon...really?

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17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The "man made heat island" is the very definition of a cause of "climate change".    I suppose that could be quantitated and you can see what the temps SHOULD be without effects of lots of concrete, asphalt, brick, stone, metal, and industrial exhaust, but that won't reflect the reality.  But I know your position on this and it would be really OT in this thread to delve into that. ;)

Agreed not the place! Though before I get some folks who misunderstand my position -  I of course believe in climate change 100% - it is and always will be changing - now man-made impact......we need a whole different thread!! LOL!!!!

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2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Agreed not the place! Though before I get some folks who misunderstand my position -  I of course believe in climate change 100% - it is and always will be changing - now man-made impact......we need a whole different thread!! LOL!!!!

Here I agree 100% - there ARE climate cycles - and that even includes the sunspot cycle and atmospheric impacts from that.  It's just that the man made part has skewed what is going on with the natural cycles and that is preventable.

And as an obs - I am now up to 36 with dp 30 and it overcast.  There are radar returns sliding to the south over the Delmarva and extreme S. Jersey.

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1 hour ago, SP said:

Now for the toughest question of the week regarding the potential storm. Should I tune the 3 stage thrower or leave it in the barn? It is a tough call.

35F and no frost on the car :)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Leave it in the barn of course. You can tune it up Saturday morning while listening to sleigh ride music.

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