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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I think we all wait a year

Your avatar changes are cracking me up. :lol:

I bottomed out at 14 this morning and am currently 20 partly cloudy with dp down to 4.

26 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Extreme fantasy GFS run for next weekend! LOL 

 

Was just looking at that.  CMC sortof has it too but further east where it suddenly "pops" into place.

floop-gfs-2022012112.prateptype_cat.conus-jan31-storm-01212022.gif

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2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Your avatar changes are cracking me up. :lol:

I bottomed out at 14 this morning and am currently 20 partly cloudy with dp down to 4.

Was just looking at that.  CMC sortof has it too but further east where it suddenly "pops" into place.

floop-gfs-2022012112.prateptype_cat.conus-jan31-storm-01212022.gif

CMC has the storm too but it's just much slower with the Southern stream energy and doesn't start amplifying until day 10(and looks like it would be an apps runner). With how much Northern stream energy there is on the field, and the run to run changes we are seeing due to that, probably a good idea to not pay attention to this storm until next Weds or Thurs if it still exists by then.

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15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

CMC has the storm too but it's just much slower with the Southern stream energy and doesn't start amplifying until day 10(and looks like it would be an apps runner). With how much Northern stream energy there is on the field, and the run to run changes we are seeing due to that, probably a good idea to not pay attention to this storm until next Weds or Thurs if it still exists by then.

CMC is definitely slower (added the ones for the same time frame).  Plus am trying to help the :cliff::P

floop-gfs-2022012112.sfcwind_mslp.conus-jan31-storm-at-6z-12z-01212022.gif

floop-gdps-2022012112.sfcwind_mslp.conus-jan31-storm-at-6z-12z-01182022.gif

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1 hour ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

@Ralph Wiggumwhat is the deal for a week from now? I have a flight on 1/29 out of PHL at 3:00 PM to go to FL. You need to hold this thing off til I leave.

-RSC

If you held a gun to me I would say the trof axis is too far east and less stj energy being depicted so favors off the coast and hitting New England. Also progressive NS also suggests likewise.l with a crud Atlantic look.. Of course if it amps up and does have some stj play we could be talking an inside runner. As much as folks dont want to hear it, major timing issues evident wrt jet stream energy so likely a thread the needle scenario. I think you r fine for now sir but subject to change since we are talking 7 days out.

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54 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

NAM 18Z has a little something something for Tuesday night. Shifted a bit east from the 12Z as well. Not appearing on CMC or GFS as of yet though.

Yes, GFS now showing a little something on Wed too -- not quite to NAM levels. Guess it something to watch until it disappears in 6 hours.

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