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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread


JTA66
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9 hours ago, hazwoper said:

I don’t think anyone expected those numbers from an anafront

Cold chasing precip works out about 1 in 20 times at best for this area outside of the higher elevations in the far N and W areas of this subforum. Odds are only a bit better in getting a snowstorm to pan out during a stretch of good teleconnections in the pattern of the N hemisphere. Clock is ticking. 

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

958 of the VA coast would be fun…one can dream as you said.  

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This is the winter I was expecting in December. Averaging slightly below average precipitation with a weak southern jet has gone as expected. The January cold is the anomaly. ECM wants to end the show and stamp it a dead ratter in February. Weather World says not so fast, unfortunately they are only on board with the cold and are also going with a dry pattern with a "parade of clippers" their words not mine lol.

 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

"Would you look at it?  Just look at it!!!"

That's what came into my head seeing this.  Ahhhhh at least I can look at it.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Only 10 days out, what can go wrong? GFS has been hyping this time period though for several runs. Potential is there. But with how much changes we see in the N stream from run to run, highly, highly unlikely this verifies. Fun to imagine though...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

That would be the cover of the new edition KU book on winter storms ... verbatim

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PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far.

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far.

I'm at 7.8 for the winter up here . It sucks seeing places to our south with more than us.

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45 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

PHL is currently sitting at 3.9" of snow this year. There's been 49 winters year to date with 4" or less at this time. Of those 49, only 12 featured normal or above normal snowfall on the year and almost all of those were Nino's. 08-09 was I think the only nina that finished with normal snowfall and it was a weaker Nina than this one. Historically, odds are not with us getting close to normal snowfall in a Nina with this little amount of snow so far.

Atlantic City is at 17-18" so far. When was the last winter AC beat Philly in snowfall? I think Allentown only has 8" or so....when was the last time AC beat Allentown in snow? The next 10+ days don't look great as far as precip and this cold air we're having presently won't last forever so....

18F

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