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December 2021


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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember being at 58 inches with 3 snowfall events in March lined up on the models. All three sunk south.

Only needed 10 to be second place of 67 from 02/03.

No way was going to take first place which was 92 inches in 95/96.

The tpv ended up sitting over main and sent everything south 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Obviously social media and the internet hardly were in large use then and winter forecasts were not a big thing.  However, there were actually quite a few Mets who were forecasting a big winter that year in Sep/Oct.  I do not recall the reasons why but there was alot of buzz going around that the NAO was going to largely be negative and we had a good chance for a huge winter.  The active tropical season may have been partly why they were hyping it

Now that I'm thinking about it again. It was a more central Pacific la Niña, which had no business doing what it did. However, it did have a +PDO. I've read some recent research which does show that to be an important factor indeed. Which is because it can modulate the wave driving from enso. So I'm guessing it played a major role actually when I think about it. I never really used to think much of the PDO. I always viewed it as more of an indicator of the previous seasons pattern, but it is actually quite important in it's own right apparently. 

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The tpv ended up sitting over main and sent everything south 

I remember those southern sliders in mid/late March and we had a high of 19 degrees in Reading PA.  Frigid!  One of my favorite things about weather is when you don’t think it is possible and it happens to show it was possible.  The blizzard of 82 (April) is one that tops my list.  Next day highs in the mid 20’s.  I was four so I don’t remember that well but it was talked about as I grew up 

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39 minutes ago, Oliviajames said:

I remember those southern sliders in mid/late March and we had a high of 19 degrees in Reading PA.  Frigid!  One of my favorite things about weather is when you don’t think it is possible and it happens to show it was possible.  The blizzard of 82 (April) is one that tops my list.  Next day highs in the mid 20’s.  I was four so I don’t remember that well but it was talked about as I grew up 

I was 8 and thats my first snowstorm memory I remember it so clearly I woke up to see it at 3 am when it first started falling and then saw it fall all day.  The snow stuck around all week and there was another snow event the following weekend.

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Obviously social media and the internet hardly were in large use then and winter forecasts were not a big thing.  However, there were actually quite a few Mets who were forecasting a big winter that year in Sep/Oct.  I do not recall the reasons why but there was alot of buzz going around that the NAO was going to largely be negative and we had a good chance for a huge winter.  The active tropical season may have been partly why they were hyping it

several things

active tropical season yes but also the fact that so many of those storms recurved without hitting the east coast

that seems to be an important factor in determining storm tracks

also the very hot and very dry summer

compared to 1933-34 in many respects

2010-11 was another unusual winter we had to reach far back for analogs to that one like 1916-17

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22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember we got like 1-2 inches or so out of storms that seemed like they would be major for us.

Yeah 70-80" was a definite possibility had 1 or 2 of those storms worked out

Read the thread from 2/28/14. We went from a foot in the morning to an inch by that night for an event 72 hours out

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

several things

active tropical season yes but also the fact that so many of those storms recurved without hitting the east coast

that seems to be an important factor in determining storm tracks

also the very hot and very dry summer

compared to 1933-34 in many respects

2010-11 was another unusual winter we had to reach far back for analogs to that one like 1916-17

It was very hot and dry that summer. We had a historic wildfire out here that year because of that. The recurving tropical observation is an interesting one as well. 

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Sucks we didn’t get any real snow this month. I’m not counting the 1/2 inch this week as a real snow.

we haven’t really even been close to anything either. Nice to see NE getting some frozen events, even though they are off to a slow start.

I’m sure we will get some chances 2nd week of January or so, but December snow to me always the best. 

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4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I do think there's some merit to considering the prior year enso to the following year. I'm sure that there are some sort of lag effects somewhere. And I'm usually bearish on a 2nd year la Niña lol. This year though, is a little different so far. So it's interesting. 

Yeah there was arguments 93-94/95-96 were both active partly due to the long duration El Nino of 90-93 beforehand...in essence 90-91/91-92/92-93 were all Ninos but then why did 94-95 suck so bad.  Pinatubo possibly played some role in 92-93/93-94 and 95-96 also.  Remember 92-93, much like 96-97 was not that much of a ratter once you got away from the immediate metro.  

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah there was arguments 93-94/95-96 were both active partly due to the long duration El Nino of 90-93 beforehand...in essence 90-91/91-92/92-93 were all Ninos but then why did 94-95 suck so bad.  Pinatubo possibly played some role in 92-93/93-94 and 95-96 also.  Remember 92-93, much like 96-97 was not that much of a ratter once you got away from the immediate metro.  

2010-11 was also a great el nino to la nina and 2016-17 not bad either

 

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8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

ewr up to 55 at 10 pm

This was the 5th Christmas at Newark to reach 55° since 2008.

 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0
1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0
2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0
2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0
1940-12-25 61 32 0.00 0.0 0
1994-12-25 60 41 T 0.0 0
1979-12-25 59 47 0.37 0.0 0
1965-12-25 59 40 0.85 0.0 0
1936-12-25 57 36 0.00 0.0 0
2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0
2008-12-25 55 33 0.11 0.0 0
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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and still mild. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 54°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.2°; 15-Year: 43.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.5°; 15-Year: 44.5°

Tomorrow will be a brisk day, but the remainder of December will see generally above normal temperatures.

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