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December 2021


MJO812
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Here we go. This is the little snippet that I remembered reading. It's in this paper. 

How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models?

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/20/jcliD200024.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

For most models and the reanalysis, the height response over the North Pacific to the QBO is mainly explained by the direct downward-arching of the equatorial stratospheric winds. Specifically, the arching easterlies during EQBO correspond to a high height response in the reanalysis and some models

 

There's also some interesting points regarding the NAO and modeling. Which isn't really surprising as that's always been a fickle area. 

 

A strong negative (positive) NAO-like response is observed during EQBO (WQBO) winters in JRA-55 (Fig. 2a; also see Fig. 7 in Gray et al. 2018), while both lobes of the NAO (i.e., the low center in the midlatitude Atlantic and the high center in high latitudes) during EQBO are somewhat underestimated even in the ensemble mean of good models

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At my parents for the holiday! It’s a white Christmas in central Connecticut! My three year old son is absolutely loving it! I really do hope we get some nice winter weather in January-March. Happy Holidays everyone! I hope that the next year brings us all health, positivity, and the weather that we all want!

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7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Gefs and the eps trying to shift the MJO a little bit east in extreme clown range. But they've tried this before though too. Just thought I'd make mention of it since both kind of did it this time. 

The CPC commented on how unusual this type of MJO stall in the WPAC is.

 

Dynamical model MJO index forecasts depict a fairly unusual setup, with a persistent West Pacific signal over the next couple of weeks suggesting the evolution of a lower-frequency mode than MJO.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CPC commented on how unusual this type of MJO stall in the WPAC is.

 

Dynamical model MJO index forecasts depict a fairly unusual setup, with a persistent West Pacific signal over the next couple of weeks suggesting the evolution of a lower-frequency mode than MJO.

That's really quite interesting. Slow movement was expected, but this is getting pretty ridiculous. Much worse places that it could be stuck though, for sure. 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the EPS and GEPS are raising heights north of Alaska in early January due to the MJO phase 7. But it also looks like they want to maintain the strong ridging south of the Aleutians and the -PNA. So we may get some type of compromise between those two features leading to more of a gradient-type pattern. But the question with all gradients is exactly where they set up. 

Thanks was looking at the ensembles and was pleased to see this setup. Deeper cold snaps will traverse the country with the SE ridge Popping in between. This volatility can lead to better overrunning setups.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the EPS and GEPS are raising heights north of Alaska in early January due to the MJO phase 7. But it also looks like they want to maintain the strong ridging south of the Aleutians and the -PNA. So we may get some type of compromise between those two features leading to more of a gradient-type pattern. But the question with all gradients is exactly where they set up. 

It's kind of interesting too, with how the MJO got stuck like this. It's created a persistent westerly wind anomaly a bit closer to the central Pacific. That was previously stuck by the Maritime Continent. This has started warming the water there a bit. It's set to stay there for the foreseeable. It'd be interesting to see if there's any ramifications from this. 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.thumb.png.83d9385f5e40744e6a750f0cc5891874.png

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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the EPS and GEPS are raising heights north of Alaska in early January due to the MJO phase 7. But it also looks like they want to maintain the strong ridging south of the Aleutians and the -PNA. So we may get some type of compromise between those two features leading to more of a gradient-type pattern. But the question with all gradients is exactly where they set up. 

Assuming we don’t see a major SSW, it will be interesting to see what happens come mid-late January, that’s the time La Nina’s typically start to bring mild conditions, especially February, as the tropical forcing moves back to the maritime continent. This La Niña is obviously very strongly coupled, along with the -PDO, and if it follows climo that’s what we SHOULD see, however, given AGW, I wonder if something weird happens…..

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7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

A couple things about that. It was made in October. So back then, all there really is to go off of is the la Niña. So that's exactly what that is. A cookie cutter forecast of la Niña. That's because, la Niña usually has convection pinned in the Maritime Continent. Which is colder in early winter. This year is being a little different so far. 

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Pattern looks like it's evolving a little more favorably for wintry mixes all of our area I78 northward. Not threading Monday-Tuesday (yet), but it's looking messy to me.  

Meanwhile, the NAEFS is showing signs of much below normal cold intruding through the northern Plains into the upper midwest by early January and ensemble snow depth is modeled to increase there. That allows colder boundary layer temps to be less distant.

Already many models are/were MUCH too warm at the surface for yesterdays first measurable snow in NYC and for this mornings ice event north of I80.  I think the same is ahead this coming week. Suggest following the colder surface temps of GGEM/RGEM and EC through Wednesday.  My expectations below for early this coming week. 

I think we're looking at a period of snow Monday changing to periods of sleet or freezing rain Tuesday that may linger as mixed wintry precipitation into Wednesday. It's complex but I have little doubt that more hazardous wintry weather is coming early this coming week to at least portions of the I84 corridor and even down to Easton-Phillipsburg-Chester near I78 (PA/NJ). Long Island probably escapes the icy stuff (maybe not the period of snow Monday).
 

Yes it certainly was chillier yesterday with more snow than expected, at least at my location.

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On 12/24/2021 at 11:35 AM, LibertyBell said:

It's amazing how quickly a/c usage drops from Portland to Seattle to Vancouver, but they never ever get this kind of heat so it's understandable.  I never thought any place in Canada was capable of hitting 120, in the US it's confined to only the hottest part of the country.  I heard a town was burned from all the fires (Lytton?)
 

Merry Christmas 

I didn't think so either especially in B.C. too. The warmest we ever got in Toronto was 104F and that was in 1936 too. Yeah it burned all down, a lot of bigger towns like Kamloops were evacuated too. They get crazy fires every year like California. I think Seattle and Vancouver have similar climo's.

Look at Vancouver's forecast this week. 4"+ today. Can't believe it's more winter like there than here. 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-74_metric_e.html

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Assuming we don’t see a major SSW, it will be interesting to see what happens come mid-late January, that’s the time La Nina’s typically start to bring mild conditions, especially February, as the tropical forcing moves back to the maritime continent. This La Niña is obviously very strongly coupled, along with the -PDO, and if it follows climo that’s what we SHOULD see, however, given AGW, I wonder if something weird happens…..

I think some Nina's are backloaded like 1949-50 or 1971-72 just to name a few. Hopefully that's the case this year. 

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10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Merry Christmas 

I didn't think so either especially in B.C. too. The warmest we ever got in Toronto was 104F and that was in 1936 too. Yeah it burned all down, a lot of bigger towns like Kamloops were evacuated too. They get crazy fires every year like California. I think Seattle and Vancouver have similar climo's.

Look at Vancouver's forecast this week. 4"+ today. Can't believe it's more winter like there than here. 

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-74_metric_e.html

They are very far north so all it takes in the proper flow and your closely linked to arctic air with little modification.
As far as the summer heat, I would think some of those extreme temps include some downslope compression.

Typical Christmas weather in our new climate. Meanwhile an ice storm is underway in southern Vermont at my house there. 

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