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December 2021


MJO812
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December 2021 is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 43.8° in New York City. That was the 3rd warmest December on record. Records go back to 1869. 5 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 2000. 9 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 1980.

2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 87° (old record: 81°, 1951)
Baton Rouge: 84° (old record: 81°, 1974)
Charleston, SC: 78° (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996)
Charlotte: 73° (old record: 70°, 1996)
College Station, TX: 83° (old record: 82°, 1951)
Corpus Christi: 84° (tied record set in 2011)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 74°, 1921)
Houston: 84° (old record: 82°, 1974)
Lake Charles, LA: 80° (old record: 78°, 1933, 1934, 1964)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1951)
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1988)
Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 81°, 1951)
New Orleans: 83° (old record: 81°, 1971)
Pensacola: 79° (old record: 77°, 1971 and 1996)
Raleigh: 74° (old record:P 72°, 1929)
Savannah: 81° (old record: 80°, 1973 and 2015)
Shreveport: 81° (tied record set in 1951 and tied in 1964)
Tampa: 83° (tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2015 and 2018)

In addition, Houston recorded its 18th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. The 18 days also matches the November record that was set in 1927. Houston also recorded its December record 8th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston concluded December with a monthly mean temperature of 67.8°. That demolished the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It was also high enough to tie 1909's November average, which was the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.516 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.052 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.308 (RMM).

 

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 2021 is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 43.8° in New York City. That was the 3rd warmest December on record. Records go back to 1869. 5 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 2000. 9 of the 10 warmest December cases have occurred since 1980.

2022 will begin with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward cooler weather lies ahead in the medium-range.

In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed. Preliminary records included:

Albany, GA: 87° (old record: 81°, 1951)
Baton Rouge: 84° (old record: 81°, 1974)
Charleston, SC: 78° (tied record set in 1984 and tied in 1996)
Charlotte: 73° (old record: 70°, 1996)
College Station, TX: 83° (old record: 82°, 1951)
Corpus Christi: 84° (tied record set in 2011)
Galveston: 80° (old record: 74°, 1921)
Houston: 84° (old record: 82°, 1974)
Lake Charles, LA: 80° (old record: 78°, 1933, 1934, 1964)
Meridian, MS: 84° (old record: 79°, 1951)
Mobile: 81° (old record: 78°, 1988)
Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 81°, 1951)
New Orleans: 83° (old record: 81°, 1971)
Pensacola: 79° (old record: 77°, 1971 and 1996)
Raleigh: 74° (old record:P 72°, 1929)
Savanah: 81° (old record: 80°, 1973 and 2015)
Shreveport: 81° (tied record set in 1951 and tied in 1964)
Tampa: 83° (tied record set in 2006 and tied in 2015 and 2018)

In addition, Houston recorded its 18th 80° day of this month. The old December record was 10 days, which was set in 2012. The 18 days also matches the November record that was set in 1927. Houston also recorded its December record 8th consecutive 80° day. The old record of 5 consecutive days was set during December 3-7, 1998 and tied during December 24-28, 2016. Houston concluded December with a monthly mean temperature of 67.8°. That demolished the longstanding December mark of 64.4° from 1933. It was also high enough to tie 1909's November average, which was the 3rd warmest November on record.

January will very likely commence with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°).

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +16.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.516 today.

On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.052 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.308 (RMM).

 

In addition San Juan, PR will have a top ten warmest December with nine of the ten warmest Decembers from 1995 onward. Records began in 1956.

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

40° and warmer Decembers have become much more common in recent years.

 

3A337ECC-9443-44BD-909F-FF8CC07BD95E.thumb.jpeg.0d0de81b641dc115c5b9e32f07c9be55.jpeg

 

 

The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas.  
December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.  

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23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The beginning decades had one 40 degree winter and lots below 30. This plays into why snow is so commonly associated with Christmas.  
December 89 is one of my most distinct early weather memories. Playing on the ice on the frozen canals where i grew up. The continuous cold and very minimal snow. Which all came from a couple clippers.  

That month was full of disappointment 

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3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 50.8 0
2 2001 44.1 0
3 2021 43.8 0
4 1984 43.7 0
5 2006 43.6 0
6 2011 43.3 0
7 1998 43.1 0
8 1982 42.7 0
9 1990 42.6 0
10 1891 42.5 0
11 1994 42.2 0
12 1923 42.0 0
13 2012 41.5 0
14 1996 41.3 0
- 1953 41.3 0
15 1979 41.1 0
16 1956 40.9 0
- 1931 40.9 0
17 1971 40.8 0
18 2014 40.5 0
- 1965 40.5 0
19 1957 40.2 0
20 2018 40.1 0
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  • 1 month later...
On 1/1/2022 at 7:27 AM, bluewave said:

3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 50.8 0
2 2001 44.1 0
3 2021 43.8 0
4 1984 43.7 0
5 2006 43.6 0
6 2011 43.3 0
7 1998 43.1 0
8 1982 42.7 0
9 1990 42.6 0
10 1891 42.5 0
11 1994 42.2 0
12 1923 42.0 0
13 2012 41.5 0
14 1996 41.3 0
- 1953 41.3 0
15 1979 41.1 0
16 1956 40.9 0
- 1931 40.9 0
17 1971 40.8 0
18 2014 40.5 0
- 1965 40.5 0
19 1957 40.2 0
20 2018 40.1 0

very difficult to get a good winter with a December average of 40+

Just picking through this list from bottom to top the notable ones are 1957-58, 2014-15, 1982-83, 2015-16.  Some of these were one big snowstorm winters like 1982-83 and 2015-16.  2014-15 was a real standout because of how cold it got from Jan 20 through Mar 20.   And it was the only non strong el nino out of the 4, as a matter of fact it wasn't an el nino at all.  Was 1891-92 snowy?  I'm not familiar with what happened that winter, but it looks like it was the only 1800s winter that had a December average of 40+

 

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