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December 2021


MJO812
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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

So, if I review this correctly,  the southern stream is INACTIVE, lighter than normal flow along roughly 25-35N in the Pac through to the ATLC,  but above normal speed Aleutians to the Canadian USA border.  

IF that's a correct read,  I want to be looking for a strengthening of the jet near 30N, which if this were to eventually occur with a WAVE breaking ridge off the west coast, our chances for something in the southern stream would increase with eventual -NAO cold air damming (CAD) benefits.  For now as I see it, we just cant tone down the strength of the short wave jet stream energy packets (500MB vorticity centers) in the northern USA. 

Fingers crossed that there is so much we don't know, that this pattern will eventually evolve-respond to permit at least 10" of seasonal snow in NYC and 25" out here in nw NJ.  Those are my goals now... which I hope we can achieve by March 15 2022.

I agree with you. I remain hopeful that we’ll have some snowfall opportunities.

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is once again different

 

Some snow Christmas eve for NYC northward and the Christmas storm is also flatter .

Would be nice to see some snow but its six day's away, many more runs, model comparisons and temps in the 40's would make for rain showers.

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A stiff wind was drilling colder air into the region this evening creating mid-winter wind chills. Tomorrow morning could see the coldest readings so far this season. And then, winter will lose its grip on the region. Temperatures will moderate beginning on Tuesday. Temperatures will generally be near or above normal through much of the remainder of December. The final week of December could still see temperatures begin to turn colder as month comes to a close. No severe cold is likely.

Afterward, if the small sample of cases where the MJO moved into Phase 7 at a high amplitude (1.75 or above) during the December 10-20 period, as occurred this month, is representative, the first 10 days of January could see below to perhaps much below normal temperatures. Support for such an outcome has increased on the recent guidance. Currently, the risk of severe cold at the start of January remains relatively low. There remains uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the cold during the first 10 days of January.

In the Midwest, Chicago has yet to receive its first measurable snowfall through 4 pm CST on December 19. Only December 2012 saw saw its first measurable snowfall after December 19 (December 20).

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was -2.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.250 today.

On December 17 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.867 (RMM). The December 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.010 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.6° (3.5° above normal).

 

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For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha.

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28 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha.

I wonder if the new indoor ski model will gain in popularity?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-skiing-can-survive-climate-change-11612969209


Downhill skiing could become an increasingly exotic proposition in a warming world. By midcentury, the U.S. could see 90 fewer days below freezing each year, according to a 2016 study published in the Journal of Climate and based on data from the federally funded North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Nearly all ski areas in the U.S. are projected to have at least a 50% shorter season by 2050, according to a 2017 study funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and published in the Global Environmental Change journal.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What do you think the ski industry needs to do to adapt to a warmer world, if anything? Join the conversation below.

Higher temperatures make snow more elusive on the slopes, cutting into revenues for ski areas. Low snow years between 1999 and 2010 already cost ski areas an estimated $1 billion in revenue, according to a 2012 analysis commissioned by the nonprofits Protect Our Winters and the Natural Resources Defense Council.

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha.

She's not wrong.  Lol

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21 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

For everyone saying calm down, if I am running a ski area south of Vermont, right now I am pretty worried about missing Christmas week. The overnight lows haven't even been cold enough for many of the local ski areas to even BEGIN making snow on the majority of their trails, let alone build a base up. Hopefully they can pump out a ton these next three nights to get some trails open for next week. Winter is not all just natural snowfall to most winter businesses, they actually NEED cold (aka seasonable). My wife said it is FREEZING today, and I said naw it's just seasonable haha.

This is a good point. Next 5 nights are forecast to be well below freezing at night up by me so that should help. 

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I wonder if the new indoor ski model will gain in popularity?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-skiing-can-survive-climate-change-11612969209

Downhill skiing could become an increasingly exotic proposition in a warming world. By midcentury, the U.S. could see 90 fewer days below freezing each year, according to a 2016 study published in the Journal of Climate and based on data from the federally funded North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Nearly all ski areas in the U.S. are projected to have at least a 50% shorter season by 2050, according to a 2017 study funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and published in the Global Environmental Change journal.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What do you think the ski industry needs to do to adapt to a warmer world, if anything? Join the conversation below.

Higher temperatures make snow more elusive on the slopes, cutting into revenues for ski areas. Low snow years between 1999 and 2010 already cost ski areas an estimated $1 billion in revenue, according to a 2012 analysis commissioned by the nonprofits Protect Our Winters and the Natural Resources Defense Council.

 
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The experts always seem to be wrong. Always painting the most dire outcomes that never verify.


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