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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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Composite did very well in October and November....too bad that part isn't graded. Now watch me whiff on winter lol

November forecast composite was about perfect in the east...only flaw was that it didn't really capture the lower heights that persisted near AK very well. The active PAC jet shifted the core of the warmth north of where I had it the west, buried in the SW.

Novie Composite.png

Nove Actual.png

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Congrats Hawaii

 


Blizzard Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-031430-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph
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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Significantly improved 11-15 on eps for 0z.  All of the ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) like the next Wednesday event as a cold swfe.  Good night-day crew take from here....

Would this include PVD in any snow? 

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4 hours ago, weathafella said:

Significantly improved 11-15 on eps for 0z.  All of the ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) like the next Wednesday event as a cold swfe.  Good night-day crew take from here....

Yeah I liked that trend. Still would like a tick or two more on beating down that ridge but the trend was there that run. More amplified AK/Aleutian ridge for sure that run. 

Hopefully we can get away with only a week or less of a junk pattern. If we sneak in a SWFE in 12/8-12/9 even better. 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

:drunk:

Better hope the pattern changes because La Nina's are warmer in the 2nd half of winter. Maybe it's different this year and we actually get lucky with blocking.

I'm fine with whatever. If it's warm, I have a honey do list, so that's good for it lol. 

It does look better in the longer range as people have stated. I have been thinking second half of month. It looks like poop prior overall. Doesn't mean it can't snow...just not a wintry look. 

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25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Measuring oak leaves in feet today.:damage:

Good morning B Z. The  accumulation depth amazes me even from the one mighty oak over my postage stamp. Perhaps if, before dropping, the oak leaves turned snow color it would be, even here, easier to play pretend. As always ….

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4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Congrats Hawaii

 

 

Blizzard Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-031430-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph

I knew it.  Hawaii is stealing our snow.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I actually cared about such things, then I would have dub this a pretty good severe year for SNE...at least by our standards.

The number of fall events the past 3-4 years have been the most intriguing. Perhaps with great assistance of dual-pol radar activity but the number of October/November tornadoes the past several years from NY/PA into our region has been pretty remarkable. Thankfully (and this is a trend nationally) they're all weak sauce 

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