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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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Monitor the RGEM... it's scoring BIG over all models since 06z/21 for the freezing rain that is occurring nw NJ/ne PA across into se NYS and CT this midnight hour of early Wednesday Dec 22.   It has completely accurately outperformed  the too warm SPC HREF,  HRRR, GFS since at least the 6z/21 cycle.

ICY here in nw NJ with .06 freezing rain in the Ambient counter.

The SPC HREF finally caught on with its 00z/22 cycle...too late for much added forecast value. 

 

Always been a GGEM/RGEM fan.  While what happens Thursday night may mostly melt during the midday hours Christmas eve (wherever it accumulates), it's a start--best axis for accumulation...too early for me but a worthy monitor for at least something in this weak start to winter.

Last post here, but thought a heads up for model performance is useful right now. Happy Holidays!  Walt

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Seems like most guidance is dropping an inch or two on Xmas Eve for a good chunk of SNE. NAM is furthest north while Euro looks furthest south. Guess we’ll see if there’s any trends today on that. 
 

The 25th looks weak on most guidance. Beyond that is still a mess with huge differences. 

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Monitor the RGEM... it's scoring BIG over all models since 06z/21 for the freezing rain that is occurring nw NJ/ne PA across into se NYS and CT this midnight hour of early Wednesday Dec 22.   It has completely accurately outperformed  the too warm SPC HREF,  HRRR, GFS since at least the 6z/21 cycle.

ICY here in nw NJ with .06 freezing rain in the Ambient counter.

The SPC HREF finally caught on with its 00z/22 cycle...too late for much added forecast value. 

 

Always been a GGEM/RGEM fan.  While what happens Thursday night may mostly melt during the midday hours Christmas eve (wherever it accumulates), it's a start--best axis for accumulation...too early for me but a worthy monitor for at least something in this weak start to winter.

Last post here, but thought a heads up for model performance is useful right now. Happy Holidays!  Walt

RGEM inside 24 for surface temps as been stellar since the days of yore when we started Walt. Happy Holidays and may this not be your last post here this winter but first of dozens.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nothing doing until the new year it looks like. A coating to an inch on Friday morning won’t make it until the evening with temps near 40

Silly post…in fact it’s quite the opposite as Will just said it’s a mess on guidance.  So many shortwaves in the flow, it’s impossible to see what transpires.  But go with the “nothing doing” idea, it’s definitely you. 

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10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nothing doing until the new year it looks like. A coating to an inch on Friday morning won’t make it until the evening with temps near 40

rgem is ideal for me. 1" Friday morning, then the 12/25 system is shredded with some flurries on Christmas. it's fine. some of the stronger solutions are just rain in semass. 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Silly post…in fact it’s quite the opposite as Will just said it’s a mess on guidance.  So many shortwaves in the flow, it’s impossible to see what transpires.  But go with the “nothing doing” idea, it’s definitely you. 

It’s a lot of shortwaves, but also not ideal too. But, the 6z gfs sort of shows an ideal progression that we spoke about. Only caveat I see is that I’m not sure we see a ridge like that out west unless it’s transient.  Weenies hate this, but it probably takes time and patience. Hopefully we can get one or two to come through. 

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43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Silly post…in fact it’s quite the opposite as Will just said it’s a mess on guidance.  So many shortwaves in the flow, it’s impossible to see what transpires.  But go with the “nothing doing” idea, it’s definitely you. 

At this point, I think the course of least regret is to not plan on anything, and if something becomes imminent, then rejoice.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The problem with Xmas Eve.. If we all get 1-3”, it gets to 35-40 Fri pm and melts anything in the sun in certain areas of region . Xmas Day looks like nada basically . This will be nip and tuck for SNE

I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so weak....

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think 1-3" is gone with one day of 35-40 at this time of year, especially if dews are low. Hell, my inch of crust from Saturday survived low 40s yesterday. The sun is so week....

The ensembles still show a lot of light precip later Christmas and into the 26th so that tells me a lot to resolve. In any case, latitude matters. You'll have a better chance of retaining than Kevin because the cold is lurking near the border. Unless somehow you get a coating and he gets 2" or something like that.

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