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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM is so close to a xmas eve nuke.

I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance...  We can see below, close!  That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles.   

ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead.   Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn'

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think this should be monitored on the 22nd and 23rd for that thing to make a re-appearance, old school style, in guidance...  We can see below, close!  That N-stream is just not quite digging enough, but ...notice that time stamp there says 174 hours... And given the speed of the overall system translations in the flow, the total N-stream aspect of this is probably somewhere NW of the Aleutian archipelago ... and with the flow during this run-up era buckling toward more N-S constructs over the Alaskan sector... it's not a far-gone conclusion as to whether that'll start digging more in future run cycles.   

ya know ... we typically lose, or lose significance, systems in the ext...it'd seem almost fitting if one 'emerges' instead.   Although ...the 22n/23rd was in there 3 or 4 days ago, just sayn'

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Euro looked quite interesting for that date too. 

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OP euro solution is kind of ugly in that the southern stream gets totally isolated and cutoff but the fact there is a storm there is good to see. Even with those flaws, it's pretty close to a good event.

One of the flaws on this run is that a chunk of the PV that was previously getting pinned under the NAO block actually retrogrades back west into the PNA domain, which gives us a worse airmass to work with too.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP euro solution is kind of ugly in that the southern stream gets totally isolated and cutoff but the fact there is a storm there is good to see. Even with those flaws, it's pretty close to a good event.

One of the flaws on this run is that a chunk of the PV that was previously getting pinned under the NAO block actually retrogrades back west into the PNA domain, which gives us a worse airmass to work with too.

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

image.png.0f411871537085ee1b5df6e4e70781c2.pngimage.png.0fb68984f96aa1a4580428f5ad4fe6c5.png

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

image.png.0f411871537085ee1b5df6e4e70781c2.pngimage.png.0fb68984f96aa1a4580428f5ad4fe6c5.png

Yeah agreed... I think that period 22 -25th is still on the table...  It'd be ( I think? ) the 22nd event these models toyed with 4 days back, but lost it.  But that chart above is/are a part of the moving pieces back then, still being negotiated in these runs now...  I don't think - duh - at D7+ it is too much to ask for this to modulate back into significance.

I just you know honestly I wouldn't really be hitting at it, but these blocking nodes, Greenland ( and trending W by the way ...) and -(WPO;EPO), are evolving, ..which means no one from Colorado to NF is safe at this point.   interesting

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a visual of the 12z OP run and the EPS....notice how on the EPS, you see the PV lobe anomaly pinned underneath the NAO block up in the Maritimes/New Foundland but on the OP, it's nada.

 

image.png.0f411871537085ee1b5df6e4e70781c2.pngimage.png.0fb68984f96aa1a4580428f5ad4fe6c5.png

That's very interesting you see it on the EPS but not the OP...or actually maybe it really isn't that interesting. Could it be a smoothing issue? Or maybe it just indicates that there are a ton more members hinting at such a look?

Also, it is interesting to note on the OP you have that cut-off low off the coast...so is that really a piece of the PV lobe there on the EPS or is it just there is enough of a weakness with that ridge to allow interaction between that deep trough into central Canada and the cut-off low?

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Weeklies are pretty nice....they shift the PAC/Aleutian ridge eastward in January so it's more over the GOA and EPO region...so we lose the deeply negative PNA trough.

 

Here's the 5 day mean Jan 10th and then the same thing for Jan 17th...note how the ridge moves eastward. This is getting pretty far out there but that would be a good time for that to happen as they start to lose the NAO blocking

 

 

Dec16_weekliesJan10.png

Dec16_weekliesJan17.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies are pretty nice....they shift the PAC/Aleutian ridge eastward in January so it's more over the GOA and EPO region...so we lose the deeply negative PNA trough.

 

Here's the 5 day mean Jan 10th and then the same thing for Jan 17th...note how the ridge moves eastward. This is getting pretty far out there but that would be a good time for that to happen as they start to lose the NAO blocking

 

 

Dec16_weekliesJan10.png

Dec16_weekliesJan17.png

I think you or Ray and others mentioned that in January, any major difference from say a week or go? Meaning hanging around longer ?

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