weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The structure of those 2M temp anomalies too (kinking from NE to SW) lead me to believe there would be a pretty solid high pressure off to the north which could certainly help in shunting storms south or supplying cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Those 850 anomalies are deceptive. We live at the surface. 5 day anomaly leading to Christmas. skewed by monday's temps behind the storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Pretty amazing they were able to build the MA Turnpike right on the rain/snow line lol It’s uncanny how often it actually works out that the Mass Pike is a haves and haves not dividing line by +\- 10 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Risk for a strong tornado in areas where there is snow cover. snow-induced TDS's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The pattern near us is kind of like Dec 1995 in that several days leading into the Dec 19-20 storm. 850 temps weren't even that cold but the sfc was since we had a mean high to our north. Like, here's the Dec 19, 1995 map.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 will be interesting to see how much the models bust cold tomorrow. the nam was off by like 10 degrees across iowa where it's in the 70s now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: congrats caribou I’ll send pictures from my yard in “Caribou” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: will be interesting to see how much the models bust cold tomorrow. the nam was off by like 10 degrees across iowa where it's in the 70s now The NAM is complete trash when it comes to forecasting temperatures...especially across the central U.S. There are some instances where the NAM/GFS will be off by like 10-15F on temps...it's laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Eps mean definitely ticked colder for Saturday in sne 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: will be interesting to see how much the models bust cold tomorrow. the nam was off by like 10 degrees across iowa where it's in the 70s now IF we clear out good, MOS will prob be off by at least 6-8F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 70's with dews in the upper 50's to lower 60's in Iowa...in December... Should have flew out there for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: 70's with dews in the upper 50's to lower 60's in Iowa...in December... Should have flew out there for today hours of travel for three minutes of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: skewed by monday's temps behind the storm system What’s that one skewed by? The actual cold that day? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: IF we clear out good, MOS will prob be off by at least 6-8F. I hope its 70 tomorrow...fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: What’s that one skewed by? The actual cold that day? whatever you say, winter related username 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Just now, forkyfork said: hours of travel for three minutes of storms some people have had the best times of their lives in only 3-minutes of fun 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM is complete trash when it comes to forecasting temperatures...especially across the central U.S. There are some instances where the NAM/GFS will be off by like 10-15F on temps...it's laughable. SW flow in December, especially if its 10-20kts and you are mixing from higher than 850 pretty much any model will bust...in reality though the NAM/GFS can often be too WARM in southern parts of the US in December/January for highs at D2-3 sometimes when flow is not S'ly or you are not well mixed...the last 2 weeks the GFS has cranked highs in places like RDU/BNA/ATL to 74-78 at times 3-4 days out only for them to end up in the low or mid 60s because surface flow was either light or from the E or SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Invasion by the warmista's in full force. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s uncanny how often it actually works out that the Mass Pike is a haves and haves not dividing line by +\- 10 miles. I believe a lot of the interstate system in the east at least was built upon old road networks, which were built on the edges of the path of least resistance for travelers. I know I saw a TWC segment on this years ago. Geography influences wx, which influenced early road networks, which influenced many modern roadways. https://abc7ny.com/nyc-snow-i95-nj-corridor/10190897/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What’s that one skewed by? The actual cold that day? I read that and thought the same thing. the weather behind skewed by……. The actual weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: whatever you say, winter related username Forgot the map… I know I’m right your wrong sorry.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope its 70 tomorrow...fine with me. Yeah no snow pack to protect....lol. I want it 70F...I'd like to make one final pass with the leaf blower. Especially if Saturday is going to end up on the snowier side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: SW flow in December, especially if its 10-20kts and you are mixing from higher than 850 pretty much any model will bust...in reality though the NAM/GFS can often be too WARM in southern parts of the US in December/January for highs at D2-3 sometimes when flow is not S'ly or you are not well mixed...the last 2 weeks the GFS has cranked highs in places like RDU/BNA/ATL to 74-78 at times 3-4 days out only for them to end up in the low or mid 60s because surface flow was either light or from the E or SE. I noticed that too...kinda got screwed by that a few times...especially when I do Weekly forecasts on Friday I'll get a little overzealous seeing some of these warm signals in the south only to get muted. Another issue too is cloud cover...sometimes guidance is a bit too aggressive with sky cover and it probably impacts its mixing potential. NBM does seem to be a bit better though than MOS. RDU is a place where it seems like models often are a bit too high with temps and a bit too warm with lows. I've wanted to look into this but I've wondered if RDU is a location that is great for radiating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Invasion by the warmista's in full force. OT must be slow today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2021 Author Share Posted December 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah no snow pack to protect....lol. I want it 70F...I'd like to make one final pass with the leaf blower. Especially if Saturday is going to end up on the snowier side. I'm all done...even hit the lawn with the weed whacker where it needed it on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I noticed that too...kinda got screwed by that a few times...especially when I do Weekly forecasts on Friday I'll get a little overzealous seeing some of these warm signals in the south only to get muted. Another issue too is cloud cover...sometimes guidance is a bit too aggressive with sky cover and it probably impacts its mixing potential. NBM does seem to be a bit better though than MOS. RDU is a place where it seems like models often are a bit too high with temps and a bit too warm with lows. I've wanted to look into this but I've wondered if RDU is a location that is great for radiating. This has been a dirty SE ridge to a degree...the ridge has been there in the means but the axis of it has been centered W or even NW of the SE US and we've had Canadian highs skirting by to the north and the W Canada source region has been good vs previous years where Canada has been torched...as a result many areas in the SE have largely underperformed except those days immediately ahead of the front and we've seen areas keep getting semi wedged. Saturday will be another day like that but I'd bet Friday high temps in NC/SC/TN/GA generally are way lower than modeled now and what was modeled 2-3 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The pattern near us is kind of like Dec 1995 in that several days leading into the Dec 19-20 storm. 850 temps weren't even that cold but the sfc was since we had a mean high to our north. Like, here's the Dec 19, 1995 map.... Schwoegler second round backlash storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: some people have had the best times of their lives in only 3-minutes of fun Dare I say the greater percentage of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm all done...even hit the lawn with the weed whacker where it needed it on Sunday. The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Schwoegler second round backlash storm. LOL....that one was painful....still a good storm, but man, what could have been. This blocking with non-arctic air pre-Xmas is kind of similar to that look though....at least in our half of the CONUS....the west is far colder than that year because of the monster EPO/-PNA combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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