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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not, but he was referring to the trend towards all other guidance. 

However,  the GEFS ensembles have been pretty dam consistent for quite a while now.  Don’t know if that carry’s any more weight, or if we can gleam any insight from that at this point being 4 days out still?  

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

However,  the GEFS ensembles have been pretty dam consistent for quite a while now.  Don’t know if that carry’s any more weight, or if we can gleam any insight from that at this point being 4 days out still?  

Yea, I mean I pretty much followed them for my forecast.

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

While the AO, NAO, PNA are all heading in the wrong direction (if u like cold and snow), the MJO is still heading to phase 7 at decent amplitude.

Per discussions on this board not sure on the effect it will have, but if it does it will be a good indication of a solid EOM.

I would think it will have a big impact. Especially knowing the AAM is going on the rise too. 

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Hey Scott..  does that product (MJO) run pretty regularly ?

I'm curious if the wave coherence may materialize more to the N.  The spread on the RMM is more about magnitude than position now - which is a change where I wonder if that "might" mean there is some wave 'inductance' ( I guess ..).

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On 12/3/2021 at 12:01 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor.

Yep the fast flow ruined this storm

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