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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m pretty skeptical there will be a sudden massive improvement for the holidays. Seems like wishful thinking more than anything else.

not thinking any drastic shift - just room for improvement given the lead time especially for CNE/NNE. next week is pretty bad

At the end of the ensembles, to me it looks like the cold starts spilling back to Hudson Bay, Central Canada. so its available..just need a shakeup in the pacific

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As far as next week goes, I’m tossing the sheared stuff. Don’t buy it. Maybe something closer to GFS?

Edit, they aren’t sheared.....just don’t necessarily the far offshore solutions.

Yep it’s going to come back north. Even the crushed solutions show how much WAA is still happening with not very amplified energy. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looping the EPS is like those commercials asking to adopt or donate to abused puppies. That Sarah McLachlan song playing in the background as they look up at the camera with sad faces saying “why did you do this to me?....why do I deserve this?” That’s how I feel. Why did you do this to me?

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Well just having a little Saturday morning fun, but it was kind of ugly. Hopefully that changes a bit. The problem is not the pig in Alaska, the problem is the PNA is just too dam negative. Also there is no blocking.

Ant still thinks there is no warmup mid month with a white xmas incoming. He’s planning on pulling citizens over in a snowmobile on the BK streets.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wolfie is but we’ll talk to him and let him down nice and easy…’walk away, walk away bud’.

Fast flow with no blocking is hard to get double digit totals. It can happen but it’s thread the needle. Advisory to low end warning much easier to obtain in fast flow. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

70/30 euro/gfs compromise at this stage seems reasonable?

That would be actually be a really good solution for SNE. I’m still very leery about this charging north in the next 2-4 cycles once inside 96 hours. 

Its possible it stays more weak/flat, but I’m of the mind that ptype issues are a larger concern than a whiff. 

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