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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That didn’t help me the other night . That Stafford to Ashford zone all had 2-3”. And most of that area is lower in elevation. So it totally was those strong winds blowing what was falling overhead blowing and depositing it to the E and NE

That was probably a combo of a rarity and also...that band for awhile did sit just to your north, so a bit unlucky there. 

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That didn’t help me the other night . That Stafford to Ashford zone all had 2-3”. And most of that area is lower in elevation. So it totally was those strong winds blowing what was falling overhead blowing and depositing it to the E and NE

There could be something to that.  Sturbridge area might have been the jack and they could actually weakly downslope from hilly terrain to the west.  It's all pretty gradual in that stripe along the pike though, and a net rise coming out of the CT valley.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That EURO run was brutal for me...20" over the next 10 days like 60 mi to my north, and like 4" here.

I'm bracing for a shit stretch for awhile. Maybe next week works out...but I'd rather be where you are or especially Brian and points north. I guess the only thing I can see working out is later in the 11-15 day as we get more of a -EPO. Maybe that helps bleed in more low level cold, but otherwise that is a ridge on roids across the SE. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm bracing for a shit stretch for awhile. Maybe next week works out...but I'd rather be where you are or especially Brian and points north. I guess the only thing I can see working out is later in the 11-15 day as we get more of a -EPO. Maybe that helps bleed in more low level cold, but otherwise that is a ridge on roids across the SE. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can see the beginning of the end of the milder pattern at the end of the EPS on 12/17 with the Aleutian ridging en route to AK, as that vortex finally shifts eastward..my first look at guidance this season, and it looks right on cue to get very wintery before the holidays.

 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can see the beginning of the end of the milder pattern at the end of the EPS on 12/17 with the Aleutian ridging en route to AK, as that vortex finally shifts eastward..my first look at guidance this season, and it looks right on cue to get very wintery before the holidays.

I can already hear the people like Luke who are going to be skeptical that it will be pushed back, but I really do not think so.

That is for real IMHO.

I also think it will end up back there again at some point after the New Year, but that is another discussion.

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13 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

@ORH_wxman- where's the top. map from? been looking for a good one- Thanks!

https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/

Just type any location in the search bar and then you can zoom in or out. I accidentally had the bar at the top set to (English - UK)....just change it to US and it will appear in feet and not meters.

 

edit: here is the US link

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/

 

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31 minutes ago, radarman said:

There could be something to that.  Sturbridge area might have been the jack and they could actually weakly downslope from hilly terrain to the west.  It's all pretty gradual in that stripe along the pike though, and a net rise coming out of the CT valley.

Yes. I drove up thru Union Sturbridge 2 days later and Ashford the same day . Sturbridge usually is a pit for snow and they easily had 2”. It was very similar to that Morch event several years ago where the heavy snow was falling over the edge of the valley but the TOL hills got it all. I had 7” from that. The winds were not strong in that one. This one they were gusting over 40, and took the snow east 

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

commute through windham was pretty nasty. Couple accidents. Roads looked wet, but very slick in spots.

0.7" here before the change to ZR about 9:45.  Heading into Farmington about 11, we'll see if drivers in the foothills are as ill prepared as on the coastal plain.  At least the snows are mounted and the firewood in the bed.

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What a torch today. Up to 58 already. Its crazy how many plants are still growing/sprouting around here. Lawns are still being mowed. 

Just drove by Bishops Orchard in Guilford and all the apple trees were fully leafing out. My strawberries are flowering and have fruit...

20211125-112756.jpg

 

 

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14 minutes ago, BrianW said:

What a torch today. Up to 58 already. Its crazy how many plants are still growing/sprouting around here. Lawns are still being mowed. 

Just drove by Bishops Orchard in Guilford and all the apple trees were fully leafing out. My strawberries are flowering and have fruit...

20211125-112756.jpg

 

 

Dude that place is a greenhouse.  Nothing like that up this way at all.  You might as well live  in savanna Georgia. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/

Just type any location in the search bar and then you can zoom in or out. I accidentally had the bar at the top set to (English - UK)....just change it to US and it will appear in feet and not meters.

 

edit: here is the US link

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/

 

Nice link.   It actually has my house at 1050' vs 1020' I typically use  

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16 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m ready to panic about the long term winter outlook. I’m bailing on my winter forecast, based on the long term outlook with the polar vortex continuing to deepen into January I don’t see how we get over 70 inches of snow this winter, which is what I forecasted. 

Its possible to have a decent winter without several severely crippling and debilitating blizzards.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

GFS showing how its done at 12z today.

SWFE.gif

GFS OP is an error with the very warm look of late....its totally at odds with tropical forcing, for which we have a very good consensus. The fairly mild interlude that we will have mid month belies the true overall tenor of this month.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS OP is an error with the very warm look of late....its totally at odds with tropical forcing, for which we have a very good consensus. The fairly mild interlude that we will have mid month belies the true overall tenor of this month.

Seems like its always to warm.

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