Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He averages as much in December as you do.

Lol Luke needs some edibles, guy is shook. He needs to move back to Jersey where winters really suck.   Sure, if pattern is good it can really snow in December, but there’s a reason why March averages more snow than December.  
 

And I don’t trust these ensembles much lately either, they’ve been pretty bad in the long range. A couple weeks back they showed warmth the last week of November/first week of December. That didn’t play out to well.  I wouldn’t get to invested in any one run of the ensembles..they change each run. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

Some years it starts in December…some years it doesn’t start until January.  It’s never consistent when it starts in SNE.  You should know this. 
 

When I was in my late teens/early 20’s, I used to always say, it doesn’t really snow here in SNE until after the new year/January. Cuz most years back(1980’s) then that’s the way it went it seemed.  December is always a crapshoot imo. Some years ya cash in..others ya don’t. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol Luke needs some edibles, guy is shook. He needs to move back to Jersey where winters really suck.   Sure, if pattern is good it can really snow in December, but there’s a reason why March averages more snow than December.  
 

And I don’t trust these ensembles much lately either, they’ve been pretty bad in the long range. A couple weeks back they showed warmth the last week of November/first week of December. That didn’t play out to well.  I wouldn’t get to invested in any one run of the ensembles..they change each run. 

I think they are right with the overall look which isn't good. However, the details can't be determined. That's why I said the "overall" look. For instance maybe next weeks works out in between mild periods.  But I do think it gets hostile. I'm not trying to illicit emotional responses. just MO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think they are right with the overall look which isn't good. However, the details can't be determined. That's why I said the "overall" look. For instance maybe next weeks works out in between mild periods.  But I do think it gets hostile. I'm not trying to illicit emotional responses. just MO. 

Understood.

 

And Sure it could be hostile…but normal high temps are hostile still to any type of frozen stuff here in SNE in early Dec. I think we all need to understand that.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

Coming from the Mid Atlantic, I dont expect to see snow until after Thanksgiving...I can remember snow one time on Thanksgiving, it was maybe an inch or so. Even December didn't produce very much until the last week or so in the month. I was in college at Millersville University from 2001-2005, I remember it snowing a lot in December during those years but that was about it. Point is, living up here, even in the Southern most areas of SNE, I have seen a lot more snow in October/November/December over the past 7 years than I ever did in 30 years in PA/DE. I have also seen a lot of snow in March up here, so if winter is defined by snow chances and cold weather then December and March are more winter like than February has been (outside of maybe last year and 2015).

BTW, I actually saw snowflakes the past 3 days with temps never reaching 40, not bad for the end of November....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Understood.

 

And Sure it could be hostile…but normal high temps are hostile still to any type of frozen stuff here in SNE in early Dec. I think we all need to understand that.  

Yes, first half of December typically is not loaded with cold and snow. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dec is a winter month. Anyone who says it doesn’t start until after xmas must live in a coastal warm climate I guess. 

For general readership:  If perhaps more so for numerical convenience than anything else, NOAA climate convention situates December cleanly as a winter month. 

Not intending or desiring to get into any qualms about it ( I realize the discussion is personally skewing - ), but,

winter = DJF,

spring = MAM,

summer = JJA,

autumn = SON. 

Obviously human conventions vs the year-to-year atmospheric behaviors seldom align. It "seems" like folks bend opinions based on the advent of entertaining model solutions, and/or whether there is snow of air and ground, as metric for winter.

If people use "snow" as a winter determining metric, then some years winter starts in February... Other years, in October.  We could either go that route, and just have it annulled every year when winter happened to begin and end, if ever.  Or, we can be grown-ups and just except that winter = variability that ranges from shit we like to shit we hate, and shit in between, and that's just life - but this latter tact takes the fun and 'purpose' out of this engagement, huh.

I'm sure Will or someone of the like could crunch the numbers and figure for the last 200 years. Create some sort of mean snow-density graph.  My hunch for NJ would result like Jan 14 to Feb 20 as a scratch conjecture. SNE is oh Dec 26 to Mar 6 say.  NNE might be Dec 3 to Mar 24

- 'Course, the last 20 years probably stand out as a disruption - more so than any other 20 year period in history? One wonders... 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, first half of December typically is not loaded with cold and snow. 

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2010.....keep in mind this is for ORH too, the coast had even less on 12/10

ORH_snow_Dec10.png.b5e39435898faea58e7e9c0b66b308af.png

Should of read before responding...I see you guys covered this.

People are just so on edge this season.....there is a reason I implied the earliest we would see anything significant this month was week two, and it may very well be week 3. I don't pull these time table out of my rear. Now, doesn't necessarily mean its right this season, but it was thoroughly researched.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Should of read before responding...I see you guys covered this.

People are just so on edge this season.....there is a reason I implied the earliest we would see anything significant this month was week two, and it may very well be week 3. I don't pull these time table out of my rear.

People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.

Maybe this winter will blow and I will be totally wrong...would not be the first time and wouldn't be the last. But it far too early to even suggest that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think people think Nina and expect an early start. That's my guess.

Right....but think about it. November was cold and we nearly had a significant snow event. I would argue it has started early, but we just didn't really benefit from it because it was too early and for climo. Now December looks to break for a bit before reloading second half.

Still on tract for the "early" start IMO.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 12/2008 got going like the 17th...just as a point of reference.

Yeah it was really the 12/19 storm...you could count the ice storm on 12/11-12/12 if you wanted to but it only affected part of the interior and it torched a couple days later for a couple days.

2008 is actually an example of a marginal pattern with a ton of cold in Canada that ended up producing despite not a lot of cold down in New England in the means. We were like +2 that month IIRC. But it was very active and with cold lurking around we got 2 or 3 systems timed correctly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was really the 12/19 storm...you could count the ice storm on 12/11-12/12 if you wanted to but it only affected part of the interior and it torched a couple days later for a couple days.

2008 is actually an example of a marginal pattern with a ton of cold in Canada that ended up producing despite not a lot of cold down in New England in the means. We were like +2 that month IIRC. But it was very active and with cold lurking around we got 2 or 3 systems timed correctly.

2008 is one of the best December analogs IMO...I doubled up on it in the composite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.

Ya wasn't there a total bust of a storm right before NYD or Xmas eve/day before it started snowing in January and just wouldn't stop?  Something where I was supposed to get like a foot and ended up getting slutted bad and got like 3 inches lol........I'd take a slut like that every December if it meant 30" pack by the end of January - all day......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...