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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


40/70 Benchmark
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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Earth likes to balance everything.

It does ... no this is an excellent point.   ( EDIT: oh ..ha.  I read "Earth" as "Euro" ...  haha sorry.   But hey - both balance )

The Euro's 4-d variable system is all ooh and ahh sounding and all, but what it ultimately achieves is 'smoothing' - or attempting to do so .. It tries to mute unwanted 'spontaneous emergence' along the way of processing. They are natural bi-products of complex systems operating in time ..etc..etc..  But, they then propagating onward to seriously f-up a total outlook when they do - or can. 

But, the only problem with that is,... sometimes the emergence are real.  Chaos can't be ultimately, entirely de-cluttered; noise is a real aspect of complex systems, too - to wit, the atmosphere is definitely representative.  lol.   I suspect that's why crossing D5 to D7 in that model routinely takes trough and ridges and ends up adding to their anomaly - in either direction, ...by some percentage. It's basically canceling out the features that are negatively interfering, then the feature in question gets a surge for 'virtual god' ( if you will ...) washing the processing by shedding those mitigations.

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I just logged in to see 80 posts since my last check.....I was thinking 'oh shit--what are the early models showing'?  Disappointing to see they were all about looking back at ORH snowfalls and the death of Alberta Clippers.

It's tough when the pattern thread is looking at days of yore rather than the future.  :)

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46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well transient blocking seems to pop up a lot. Flow can be fast until its not. Even for non snowstorms we have had frequent slow movers and omega blocks as well. I don't think there is enough empirical data to support fast flow theory.

This.

 

Its all cyclical.  The clippers will be back at some point. 
 

 

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14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I just logged in to see 80 posts since my last check.....I was thinking 'oh shit--what are the early models showing'?  Disappointing to see they were all about looking back at ORH snowfalls and the death of Alberta Clippers.

It's tough when the pattern thread is looking at days of yore rather than the future.  :)

Ya me too…I was like oh wow we got something brewing. But nothing but banter here this morning. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have seen enough to know that they aren't going to be a doormat anytime soon. SB caliber...fair question.

Last time I recall so many Pats off-season FA signings was after going 5-11 in 2000, and we know what happened after that.  Of course, back then BB was raiding the bargain bin; this time it's the luxury aisle.

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25 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can't even get back to back runs where you get the same look @H5, Good luck figuring out who gets snow if anyone this far out.

Modeling has been abysmal the last couple seasons(last year and this early season so far), everything changes at H5 each run, and not just little things, but whole scale changes it seems on each run. Modeling Too sensitive now or what? It jumps all over the place like a hyper chiwawa. 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On the GEFS you can see the eastern NPAC ridge  sharpens up and probably aids in the s/w digging next week, causing a mixed bag/rain. But after that, that is quite the mass of cold air. Sometimes those cutters shake things up a bit.

Dec 8th emerges as a new threat this cycle.

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