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December 2021 Cold Wave?


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The 12z GEFS has showed this at the end of the run: gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png
gfs-ens_T2m_namer_65.png
Greenland & Alaska Blocks are really strong, & it will go the Central & Southern Plains if there is a East Coast Block like what happened in February 2021
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

The GEFS has been showing something like this lately, but not the arctic buildup into a cold wave in good detail until now.

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14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

CFS model is very consistent with the December Cold Wave Round #2 (And maybe #3) at around Christmas Week, not a very good timing for my Christmas trip plans though . . . :yikes:

We havent had round 1 yet in December lol<_<

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18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Round #1 is in Early December right now, I forgot to say that there is strong model consistency on the Early December Cold Wave (Round #1) here, LOL

Ok gotcha. I dont believe anything until its 5 days out, sometimes less than that

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to December 2021 Cold Wave? (Rounds 1, 2, & possibly 3)

These 1060+ MB Highs are not to be messed around at all on the 6z GFS!

1067 MB over Western Canada & 1060 MB over Montana at the same time!
gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_58.png

Another 1059 MB over Montana
gfs_mslpa_us_65.png

Powerful Greenland & Alaska Blocks will also cause multiple rounds of Cold Waves in December
gfs_z500a_namer_fh114-384.gif

Really Cold Temperatures  :yikes:
gfs_T2m_us_fh198-384.gif

 

3 Big Winter Storms to boot as well
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh204-384.gif

 

24-Hour Kuchera Snowfall Totals
floop-gfs-2021112606.snku_024h.conus.gif

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2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

It does look like on the 6z GFS ensembles at 384, we are getting ready for -NAO, and maybe -EPO, cold blast. 

The AO also must be Negative for this to work as well.

And the 12z GFS is surging the Cold air faster compared to the 6z run.

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to December 2021 Cold Wave?
On 11/26/2021 at 11:53 AM, Iceresistance said:

The AO also must be Negative for this to work as well.

And the 12z GFS is surging the Cold air faster compared to the 6z run.

I think that OK or nearby states could be looking at a possible  winter storm by the 12th of Dec.  You have arctic air moving down into the Midwest with the southwest wind at 850 mb.  Maybe even some ice.     What do you think ? 

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9 minutes ago, pgwxtype said:

I think that OK or nearby states could be looking at a possible  winter storm by the 12th of Dec.  You have arctic air moving down into the Midwest with the southwest wind at 850 mb.  Maybe even some ice.     What do you think ? 

The end of the 12z GFS has a Sleet Storm for most of Oklahoma.

However, it's too far out to be 100% sure with the EPO being way more Positive than expected & it's 2 weeks out as well.

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

The end of the 12z GFS has a Sleet Storm for most of Oklahoma.

However, it's too far out to be 100% sure with the EPO being way more Positive than expected & it's 2 weeks out as well.

OK,  I agree with you that forecasting 2 weeks out is not dependable.   For the forecast to pan out, the Arctic high will have to build rapidly, and move southward as the model predicts. 

We will see how this situation evolves. 

 

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