Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2021/22 December Thread


AMZ8990
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS has a minor, northwest flow event for favored areas next weekend as well - meaning snow showers with minor accumulations on northwest facing slopes.

Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo

I think there are some likely differences getting worked out in modeling.  There should be cold pushing further East with an MJO phase 7.  Ensembles are still pretty rock solid though.  But if the models are going to crack, operationals will crack first.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo

Plus, for whatever reasons, modeling has been missing amplifications for about the past 4-6 weeks.    Not sure why.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Plus, for whatever reasons, modeling has been missing amplifications for about the past 4-6 weeks.    Not sure why.

So far, the mjo charts look decent, other than bc ecmwf, which always concerns me lol. JB still hyping pv split lol. Mentioned 84-85 winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

So far, the mjo charts look decent, other than bc ecmwf, which always concerns me lol. JB still hyping pv split lol. Mentioned 84-85 winter. 

Haven’t looked at WXBell today.  There are some similarities to 84-85, but to me that is a stand alone year.  It is like a 100 year blizzard like ‘93.  Not sure anyone can predict extremes like that with a ton of lead time.   We will see more extreme cold and snow in our lifetimes.  Harkening back to last year, the AMO has to flip for those winters of old to return regularly. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol

7 is not a warm phase during December though.  It is cold to the Apps.   Now, if it is stuck in January....it is a warm signal.  It is part of the reason Decembers are often cold during La Nina's.  The same Pacific set-up which makes December cold works against us during Jan/Feb.  There are definitely cracks in modeling right now.  No idea if that amounts to anything.  But just imagine walking out on the ice, and the cracking noise becomes more frequent.  That is what we are "listening" for.  Right now, they are just random off runs.  But make no mistake, modeling lost next weekend's amplification after originally having it.  My guess is that we are going to have strong ridges this winter.  I just don't see any way around that.  However, I think the cold is going to push more than LR modeling depicts.  We have seen that over and over again since early November.  Hey, we manage a super cold shot last year with crap MJO phases.  I will dig around this weekend and try to find some examples of MJOs that rotated 3-6 and still had snow.  There is some correlation to North Carolina snowstorms and maybe phase 3?  The North Carolina guys can correct me on that.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

7 is not a warm phase during December though.  It is cold to the Apps.   Now, if it is stuck in January....it is a warm signal.  It is part of the reason Decembers are often cold during La Nina's.  The same Pacific set-up which makes December cold works against us during Jan/Feb.  There are definitely cracks in modeling right now.  No idea if that amounts to anything.  But just imagine walking out on the ice, and the cracking noise becomes more frequent.  That is what we are "listening" for.  Right now, they are just random off runs.  But make no mistake, modeling lost next weekend's amplification after originally having it.  My guess is that we are going to have strong ridges this winter.  I just don't see any way around that.  However, I think the cold is going to push more than LR modeling depicts.  We have seen that over and over again since early November.  Hey, we manage a super cold shot last year with crap MJO phases.  I will dig around this weekend and try to find some examples of MJOs that rotated 3-6 and still had snow.  There is some correlation to North Carolina snowstorms and maybe phase 3?  The North Carolina guys can correct me on that.  

We had a SSW event that overwhelmed everything last February 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We had a SSW event that overwhelmed everything last February 

Yep.  That followed an extended run of -NAO blocking.  Both of those overwhelmed a really bad Pac set-up and a terrible MJO cycle with the exception of the 8-2-1 loop in December which worked well in E TN.  -NAOs tend to run in cycles.  Would be nice to get another this winter.  Not feeling that, but who knows...maybe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

@jaxjagman, looks you called it with the cold shot next weekend.  12z GFS/GEFS has it and so does the Euro at 12z.   I think this is a great example(if it verifies) of why modeling that looks wall-to-wall warm(or cold) is highly suspicious.  Makes me wonder if there is a model input problem in terms of data.

It should turn cold but before both the GFS and Euro is looking severe next weekend,could change this far out.MJO Looks good right now,even the CFS is showing a strong signal into Africa into the last week of Dec.Nothing wrong with that but you should proceed with caution on that one :)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/2/2021 at 10:41 AM, Carvers Gap said:

The cold snap of 17-18 isn't spoken about much as it produce very little snow and bitterly cold temps.  It occurred at the end of December and went to mid-January.  That was pretty much it for that winter if I remember correctly.  Would not surprise me to see a similar event.  If that cold spell had not straddled two months, it would have created a ridiculously cold anomaly for a month.  That cold shot is hidden buried in monthly climatology by means which were warmer on the front and back end of that cold snap.   That cold snap was preceded by very warm tempt, almost 15 degree departures during a few of the days prior.  The rivers here in NE TN (which didn't have dams on them and warmer generator flows) froze almost solid.  I remember seeing squirrels walking across creeks which were frozen solid but nearly clear ice due to lack of snow.  The squirrel looked as curious  as me when it walked out there.    This reminds me a lot of that winter.  If we had any precip at all, would have been more memorable than it was.

@Mr. Kevin, Joe D'Aleo of WxBell published an article today about this analog year which was mentioned yesterday on this forum.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I do worry about worry about with the MJO progression is that as it works its way east, it gets shunted south of the equator, and the 0z GFS shows jus that:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611035f9548e9bfddb469

That's not to say that the GFS is right, but it is something we've seen before and the kiss of death would be for it to spawn a TC in the southern hemisphere that rolls SE. 

Here are the EPS members takes on how this could unfold through Dec 19:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ada654429e502560c6]

Def does seem like the wave will make and attempt to push east, but exactly how strong it is and how far it gets remain to be seen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One thing I do worry about worry about with the MJO progression is that as it works its way east, it gets shunted south of the equator, and the 0z GFS shows jus that:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611035f9548e9bfddb469

That's not to say that the GFS is right, but it is something we've seen before and the kiss of death would be for it to spawn a TC in the southern hemisphere that rolls SE. 

Here are the EPS members takes on how this could unfold through Dec 19:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ada654429e502560c6]

Def does seem like the wave will make and attempt to push east, but exactly how strong it is and how far it gets remain to be seen. 

I have a feeling this new pattern is locked in for at least a month. Big time mountain snow in the west with this pattern.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That ridge is going to want to hold in the East.  La Nina is famous for that feature, but when it relaxes extreme cold surges eastward after building in the northern Rockies and Canadian prairies.  It is interesting that Rockies have had so little snow right now.  They love La Nina winters, and right now La Nina has not kicked in out there - but it is about to.  The other interesting thing is that wx modeling seems to be missing troughs pushing eastward.  I think they are handling phase 7 of the MJO poorly.  Now, as we get closer to January, phase 7 switches from cold to warm in our region.   Biggest takeaway from modeling right now is that wx models are getting the base pattern likely correct, BUT are missing trough amplifications.  Those little troughs in the long range, are turning into much more formidable features as they draw closer.    Now, if someone wants a true bummer for a Saturday, look what happened after the cold in '89.  That is what we don't want.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, the thing that is so very suspicious is that modeling locks this pattern in for 4-5 months in some cases.  It could happen, but those looks are more than likely wrong.  We have seen this over and over again during recent winters where modeling will show a pattern repeating for months on end.  I tend to buy into 4-6 weeks weather cycles.  If so, this current warm cycle should break sometime during late December (at the earliest) or by mid-January(latest).  Now, that doesn't mean the new pattern is any better.  I am just saying the repetitive pattern at 500 is suspicious.  There are an increasing number of cold outliers in modeling even as we speak, but not worth really mentioning until those become trends.  And if models are missing troughs amplifying in the East, that is probably something that will continue.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ya'll, I am actually thankful for the break in the cold from the last month.  @Holston_River_Rambler, check out the 12z GEFS.  See that trough develop(retrogrades west) just east of Hawaii late in the run?  Probably have to use the northern hemisphere view to see it.   That argues for a big ridge out west.  Also notice the AN heights rotate out of Europe into Scandanavia.  Roll the forward about 48 hours and the trough reforms in the East.  There is an argument there for the eastern ridge to break down.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that the ridge only lasts for a week and a half.   

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

BAMWX totally blew the latest MJO call. Models have been consistently moving convection east too much, and it has not budged. In fact it is very strong over the super hot (SER) Subcontinent. Also got ground truth from International friends the storms are bad there. 

I have to go with a 4-6 week much warmer than normal temp pattern which takes us through the New Year. That chart is more bearish than any stork market chart. Mele Kalikimaka is Merry Christmas in Hawaiian.

image.png.56441c2582129aa2b61806d8f7a97646.png

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@nrgjeff, been digging on this and can't find it.  I am seeing substantial heights build over Scandinavia and the Urals on the EPS.  Seems like that is a precursor to cold here or maybe a strat warm.  I can't remember if either is true.  Right now I see roughly three pools of warm and three cold, tri-pole right?  Maybe that configuration is muting that ridge's influence here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...