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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. And once again it appears the cold air will trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early this winter. I hope that isnt a sign of things to come in the future. 

I never did understand this...folks said it last year but I never understood what was meant by "trapped on the other side". Trapped by what? (I'm not sure I can Google this, or even what TO Google, so someone kindly help me out here)

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27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I never did understand this...folks said it last year but I never understood what was meant by "trapped on the other side". Trapped by what? (I'm not sure I can Google this, or even what TO Google, so someone kindly help me out here)

No CPF available. If we are to cash in during a Nina year, we are going to rely on HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions. An EPO ridge on steroids will help too. But there is zero semblance of any SER either....and while this is OK for keeping unseasonable warmth at bay, it will also allow for systems to slide/shred. Another thing I've noticed so far early, the trof axis when we do get mid lat cyclones has been displaced to the east....another function of a Nina progressive pattern. I actually think my region is the screw zone this year and think parts of THIS region will fare a good deal better. 

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If you look at the GFS extended verbatim, the targeted period is after the fifteenth.  There will be a five day milder stretch before that.  Before the end of December, based on many of  forecasts I have seen for December, I will be very disappointed if there is not a widespread significant event, 2-4; 3-6 inch event.  But we have to be realistic here, no one is calling for above normal snowfall this year, and when was the last blizzard in December???  Getting even a few inches east of the mountains in December would be a big deal based on my 50 years of living in the DMV.

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Some signs that maybe we can get the MJO out of the maritime continent toward phase 7 (at least) with some amplitude during the first week of December. After the probable warm start to December, that could force some colder conditions into the second week.

 

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The other day I was going through photos and screen shots from last year and came across this. I saved it for some reason lol...

This is today's Day 7 12z Euro vs a day 9 GFS run from last year. They're about a week apart. I don't know how well this verified last year...but fwiw....pretty similar. I wonder if we see a similar progression

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

5A6DF7DF-6168-4255-8917-CFCA41E26528.jpeg.5c43e17b8268bdf88f1fe36af19294f9.jpeg

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

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