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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately.  And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again.  Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days.

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately.  And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again.  Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days.

I definitely hear what you are saying.  But, the pattern is changing right on top of us.  It was just 2 weeks ago or so that people were noting how "all the wrong colors are in all the wrong places."  The ball of blue over AK and the all of the HLB locations.  There are definitely faults to the advertised pattern but we are gnat's hair away from a very nice set up.  We aren't yet in the game but the coach has us by the jersey and is ready to put us in! But hey, two weeks we weren't even in the stadium.

Personally, just a little help out west would be best.  If we get a full on ++PNA that links up over the top the PV will be sitting over Lake Erie....especially with the strength of the west based block.  A slow transition that ebbs and flows would be nice.

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4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately.  And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again.  Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days.

Isn't that the sentiment that we always have to be reminded of?

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9 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Mid week storm took a pretty big jump in the right direction on the upper level maps per 12zEuro. Still 96 hours to go...

Problem is I’m not sure if it matters a ton…the low up in Canada is a problem if I’m not mistaken. It’s not really cold enough anyway 

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