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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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The 12z GFS continues to show a decent storm for next Sunday. Just looking at the precip type map it looks like a pretty good snow event to the NW. However, looking at the sounding, there is nothing but dry air in the dendritic snow growth zone. It's possible that there could be some wet snow to end, but too much dry air works in by the time the column is cold enough for snow. Mostly a rain event.

 

 

12z.png

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0088000.thumb.png.2b261f4b0f3532cd3ec57f6d0487201e.png

This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted.  A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time.  

 

I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th.  

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted.  A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time.  

 

I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th.  

18z GEFS is probably too quick with the progression, or just plain wrong.  But the end of the run shows the beginning of what you just described.  A hint of lower heights pushing toward the 50/50 region while the ridge begins to redevelop westward into GL. A little washed but definitely some members seeing it.

Would be nice to see a decent pattern setting up for late Dec.  Just in time for prime climo. 

 

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5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Today's Weeklies keep the trough and cold air pretty far removed from our area through the end of the month. Despite some poleward ridging over AK, the -PNA/+NAO stay locked in for a while as advertised.

1640822400-NjhV1uLz9xE.png

Yeah it’s pretty meh, as advertised.  Need that AK ridge to shift eastward and poleward a bit.

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Latest extended GFS advertising some -NAO help at end of the month, which helps flatten the SE ridge. Been seeing some hints and lots of chatter about the possibility, but lets see if this idea shows up on LR ensemble guidance as we get closer. Would make some sense if the MJO continues to progress into the better phases.

1640995200-UZYYXxQ1hGY.png

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Getting some cross polar flow to start the new year would be great. Worried though that we’d still be stuck with trying to thread the needle with systems like tomorrow’s to take advantage of it.

GFS likes a strong Scandinavian ridge just beyond 10 days, maybe that’s the first domino to fall towards getting the New Year pattern change.

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