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OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.


wdrag
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Please follow NWS statements on the potential for SVR midday Friday.  Otherwise,  scattered showers develop near midnight becoming bands of briefly moderate to heavy showers during the daylight hours, ending from west to east by around nightfall Friday. 

Rainfall generally in the 0.4-1.5" range;. Iso 2.5" possible.  Gusty surface winds to ~40 MPH BUT please follow NWS SPC on the marginal potential for an embedded SVR storm, even Tornado, due to the strong wind fields aloft and marginal instability for connecting to the surface.  This latter SPC threat is the primary reason for beginning this OBS-NOWCAST thread. 

 

EDIT: 444PM/11: Guidance seems to be ramping up surface gusts I95 eastward midday Fri...gusts 50 MPH.

The above is part ONE. (edit 626P/12 Will post CoCoRaHs data as best I can around 8A Saturday)

 

 

Part TWO is Saturday--- a 6 hour period of colder notable showers.  Edit 444PM: Modeling (some) is trying to focus energy (CAPE etc) for a thunderstorm vcnty NYC. If that happens, hail would also be possible.  [EDIT 626P/12  Part Two is on for Saturday midday-afternoon.  HRRR has a 'chance' of thunder north of NYC... but its modeled guidance suggest T might occur down to NYC.  Slight snow acc Poconos midday Saturday.]

Part Three is late Sunday-Monday with potential for general light precip with embedded moderate, and even some minor wet snow accumulations highest terrain northwest of I84.   

 

Let's focus on Part ONE when it arrives Friday, and we'll get to separate OBS threads, if needed, for parts Two and Three, if that is okay with everyone and if needed. 

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11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I got rocked up here too. Power out again, branches down all over 

KSWF had a gust recorded at 48. Squall line definitely had some gusts in the 40 range here with sheets of wind driven rain. 0.78 in the bucket with light rain falling.

Sorry to hear about the power issue, hopefully it will be back soon.

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Pretty good rotation with the warned cell over Suffolk.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1943.html

DISCUSSION...KOKX radar imagery has shown a long-lived rotating
   cluster of convection moving north from the shelf waters of the
   Atlantic to the south coast of eastern Long Island.  The KOKX VAD
   wind profile shows intense flow fields with an enlarged hodograph. 
   The main limiting factors are scant buoyancy and very weak lapse
   rates.  Nonetheless, the storm-scale forcing associated with the
   hybrid rotating cluster of convection may enable the risk for
   damaging gusts to be realized on a localized basis, as the
   convection moves north from eastern Long Island into CT over the
   next 1-2 hours.

 

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

In addition to the severe potential that Walt outlined, there is a sting Jet-like feature right behind the low. So we could be looking at two rounds of higher winds. The low level lapse rates steepen behind the storm in the CAA which could allow westerly 50-60 mph gusts.

 

A52500C0-3F25-4F5E-B79B-7FC3BE38CE2F.gif.a5286a87847d423ebd40b4a271aed864.gif

2033E491-B83C-4552-9823-AF04A3F472F0.thumb.png.834471f8300727f34fc57e41132cab4a.png

 

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Agree w Bluewave above...  I'll probably be off line 8A-5P-- hope you have action. I may chime in from Taylor PA near AVP if an when snow mixes or accums.  Follow your own model guidance and that of the NWS-SPC.  

We're not done yet,  Part Three Sunday eve-Monday, especially I84 snow showers and minor accums. 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In addition to the severe potential that Walt outlined, there is a sting Jet-like feature right behind the low. So we could be looking at two rounds of higher winds. The low level lapse rates steepen behind the storm in the CAA which could allow westerly 50-60 mph gusts.

 

A52500C0-3F25-4F5E-B79B-7FC3BE38CE2F.gif.a5286a87847d423ebd40b4a271aed864.gif

2033E491-B83C-4552-9823-AF04A3F472F0.thumb.png.834471f8300727f34fc57e41132cab4a.png

 

What time should we expect the arrival of the possible sting jet?

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