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Could it be? November 13-15 Potential Snow


Hoosier
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First we'll have the late week system, but that's primarily a rainer for most of the sub with some flakes on the backside.

In the wake of that system, additional energy will move in from the Pacific this weekend and looks to set up the potential for some accumulating snow in a good chunk of the region.  It's still a bit far out, but given that it could be the first real potential snow of the season for many, I think it warrants a thread at this point.  Discuss away.

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I'm sure something will slide on through, but it would be great if we could get a bit more consistency on a stronger solution going. Far as I can tell, it looks like the 48 hours beforehand may actually be at least partially around freezing, so that could help a little. Better than going straight from fifties to trying to snow. Guess we'll see. 

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I'm sure something will slide on through, but it would be great if we could get a bit more consistency on a stronger solution going. Far as I can tell, it looks like the 48 hours beforehand may actually be at least partially around freezing, so that could help a little. Better than going straight from fifties to trying to snow. Guess we'll see. 

The relatively chilly lead-in is certainly not a bad thing to have to help with accumulation efficiency.

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Would've been perfect to have DOOM write this, but I'll take RC.  :P

 

As longwave trough remains
established into Sunday over northeastern North America, the
guidance continues to hint at another low amplitude albeit stout
short-wave scooting in on northwest flow Saturday night into
Sunday. While it will take some time to hone in on specifics with
this, air mass aloft will be cold enough to potentially support
accumulating snow depending on the track/strength of the clipper-
like system. For now, broad-brushed chance PoPs and snow/rain
mention are reasonable.
Castro
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GRR is starting to get onboard with this event.

An uptick in the snow is expected on Sunday as the core of the
cold air moves through with the potential for a clipper type low
or sharp upper shortwave trough enhancing the snow. This feature
is shearing out as it gets absorbed into the circulation of the
big upper low with snow showers diminishing on Monday as it moves
east and heights begin to rise. A general 1 to 3 inch snow event
could be expected by that time.
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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

GRR is starting to get onboard with this event.

An uptick in the snow is expected on Sunday as the core of the
cold air moves through with the potential for a clipper type low
or sharp upper shortwave trough enhancing the snow. This feature
is shearing out as it gets absorbed into the circulation of the
big upper low with snow showers diminishing on Monday as it moves
east and heights begin to rise. A general 1 to 3 inch snow event
could be expected by that time.

Thus has been the theme the past few winters, "sheared out as it heads east".

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This isn't the worst look for a swath of light snow accumulation. As modeled, that shortwave would be potent enough for a swath of brief moderate snow that can overcome any ground / boundary layer "marginality" and accumulate. I guess one thing to watch for is that the shortwave doesn't trend flatter, as it's a fairly low-amplitude as RC's AFD said. QPF would decrease as would precip organization and intensity, which would make it harder to see accumulating snow. 

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gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ecentus-snow_ge_1-6999200.thumb.png.3f29273a87c06b2421fe5c8b5242d5ae.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ecentus-snow_ge_1-7020800.thumb.png.006bb6531757adfc819168ec1e03c3f6.png

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9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

he should take the winter off imo, let some of the young guns have a run

This was never thread worthy, even on the gfs it was a couple inches at most. We gotta save the thread making for meaningful storms and have a general thread to cover the DAB+ storms.

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This was never thread worthy, even on the gfs it was a couple inches at most. We gotta save the thread making for meaningful storms and have a general thread to cover the DAB+ storms.

couple inch events almost always get threads.

probably was a bit too far out though. but tis the first potential, so.


.
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I like a general 1-3" in the main swath, though would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts.  Looks like there could be a period of decent rates and there are some relatively steep lapse rates aloft to work with.  Question is how far south this extends. 

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I like a general 1-3" in the main swath, though would not be surprised to see some locally higher amounts.  Looks like there could be a period of decent rates and there are some relatively steep lapse rates aloft to work with.  Question is how far south this extends. 

draw a line 15 miles north of Cedar Rapids, Ia to 15 miles north of Mchenry, Ill.

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  • Hoosier changed the title to Could it be? November 13-15 Potential Snow

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