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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I was thinking that I didn’t remember it as an ‘early’ storm. Still, one for the books. Incredible stuff! Worthy of a whole month of remembrance. Lol

When I saw BGM post it yesterday, I was a bit baffled at first. I actually had to check the date on my computer because I was like, "I don't think it was this early???" Haha

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BUF's recent discussion actually seems pretty interesting for this upcoming week. I found this one part interesting...Thundersnow??? Contacting Jim Cantore...

Lake parameters get a bit more favorable Monday night into Tuesday
as slightly colder air aloft (850 mb temperatures near -11c) pass
over the lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels improve to over 15k
as moisture profiles continue to improve, but some of this takes
into consideration upstream priming from Lake Huron/Georgian
Bay/Lake Superior. Boundary layer flow will turn northwest 300-310
degrees during this time resulting in a shorter fetch across the
lakes which will likely limit snowfall rates to a half inch per hour
or less which is suggested by the latest HREF output. Would not rule
out the possibility of thunder/lightning with a cap of at least 15k
feet and the -10c isotherm near 5k feet, some of the stronger
elements within the multiple lake plumes could support
electrification. Most mesoscale guidance suggesting lake bands will
be oscillating within the northwest flow making snow accumulation
forecast a bit more challenging. Off lake Ontario, the lake snows
will likely spray most of the south shore counties from Niagara over
to Oswego with the likelihood for the greatest totals across Wayne
and northern Cayuga counties, although localized higher end totals
could end up pretty much anywhere across this corridor, including
Rochester depending on how much oscillation occurs. Off Lake Erie,
the northwest flow regime would favor the Chautauqua Ridge and
Southern Erie with the greater snowfall amounts. Gustier winds
Monday night along with the falling snow may also bring some
visibility issues. Will continue to highlight this event in the HWO
product.
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The last few runs of the medium range guidance have
exhibited a fairly large degree of variance with the forward speed
of this next system...though a general model consensus suggests a
somewhat faster arrival time. With this in mind have brought a
chance of rain showers a bit deeper into our area Thanksgiving
afternoon...though the best precipitation probabilities still look
to hold off until Thanksgiving night...when enough moisture and
forcing now appear present to support widespread likely PoPs. With
our area remaining on the warm side of this system Thursday...
expect highs on Thanksgiving to range from the mid 40s to lower
50s...with temps then falling off into the upper 20s to mid 30s
Thanksgiving night following the passage of this system`s cold
front. The influx of colder air will also help force snow showers to
mix in with the rain Thanksgiving night.

After that...our region looks to be dominated by a seasonably cold
cyclonic westerly to west-northwesterly flow through the rest of
this period...with the much more consistent ECMWF package favored.
This will result in a return to somewhat below normal temps along
with renewed lake effect potential east and east-southeast of the
lakes...and a general chance of rain and snow showers elsewhere.
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I hate this set up so freaking much. I feel like we have seen this early season NW flow repeatedly in the last 3 years. Snow north and south while Buffalo gets a dry run of days, even sunny at times, and invariably we get a mild-up for a couple of weeks to put us even further behind the seasonal average. 
 

 

5D322ED3-A8C4-465F-A2C1-19ED99916AAA.jpeg

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Buf hits rochester with its first headline of the season without any support from any models. Ballzy . I’ll be going much lower on this one. I’ll be grateful to have my first dusting. Wolfie looks to be in ok position for a quick few. Maybe Revracer in Hannibal. I’d suspect that Roc and SYR just get after spray. 
But ya never know with these!  

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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Buf hits rochester with its first headline of the season without any support from any models. Ballzy . I’ll be going much lower on this one. I’ll be grateful to have my first dusting. Wolfie looks to be in ok position for a quick few. Maybe Revracer in Hannibal. I’d suspect that Roc and SYR just get after spray. 
But ya never know with these!  

It's lightly snowing at my house right now. 

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Map probably good if the banding sets up "further north" than modeling.  Hope its wrong.

It seems like some models are focusing on a WNW dominant band that has more of a Westerly component, while some are focusing on a WNW band with a more NWly component...with us between. Hopefully it will be a "blend" with the band focusing on us.

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34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better... :) 

weatherstory.gif

Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. 

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From NE forum:

Model gudiance has punted very early December for a few days now....we're gonna get a full torch for a few days there.

But they are pretty adamant about rebuilding the Aleutian ridging into the WPO region by about Dec 7-9 or so. That should set the stage for some cold air bleeding down into northern CONUS and get some winter wx threats.  

If that 2nd paragraph is true December might be rockin.

7411BCA7-3FE8-4111-A447-DD4EA316A905.png 

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29 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. 

Yeah, I am thinking 3 inches for many of us in this area.

Seeing some snow flurries now.

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