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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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Strong cold air advection will continue Thursday night into Friday
as the upper trough slides through, allowing colder air to continue
to spill out of Canada. Once the synoptic rain shield exits Thursday
evening, lake effect showers will ramp up east/southeast of the
lakes as 850 mb temperatures fall to -8C/-10C by Friday morning.
Model soundings displaying a rather impressive environment to
support lake effect potential, developing extreme over-lake
instability with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to near 15K
feet and lake induced CAPES to near 1000 J/kg, particularly off
Lake Ontario. Stronger lake convection could certainly produce some
lightning/thunder.

Immediate lakeshore areas could stay a rain/snow mix, but certainly
everywhere else there will be a transition over to all snow. Higher
terrain east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely see
several inches of accumulations Thursday night and Friday morning.
There is an outside chance for localized more significant
accumulations. This period will need to be monitored with potential
headlines needed as confidence increases. For other areas, it will
again be a challenge for accumulations, particularly close to the
lakeshores where it is still warmer, though where it snows hard
enough, it will accumulate, as we`ve seen over the past few days.
Will mention the potential for accumulating lake snows in the HWO
product.
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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Strong cold air advection will continue Thursday night into Friday
as the upper trough slides through, allowing colder air to continue
to spill out of Canada. Once the synoptic rain shield exits Thursday
evening, lake effect showers will ramp up east/southeast of the
lakes as 850 mb temperatures fall to -8C/-10C by Friday morning.
Model soundings displaying a rather impressive environment to
support lake effect potential, developing extreme over-lake
instability with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to near 15K
feet and lake induced CAPES to near 1000 J/kg, particularly off
Lake Ontario. Stronger lake convection could certainly produce some
lightning/thunder.

Immediate lakeshore areas could stay a rain/snow mix, but certainly
everywhere else there will be a transition over to all snow. Higher
terrain east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely see
several inches of accumulations Thursday night and Friday morning.
There is an outside chance for localized more significant
accumulations. This period will need to be monitored with potential
headlines needed as confidence increases. For other areas, it will
again be a challenge for accumulations, particularly close to the
lakeshores where it is still warmer, though where it snows hard
enough, it will accumulate, as we`ve seen over the past few days.
Will mention the potential for accumulating lake snows in the HWO
product.

Looks good in your spot wolf. Looks like 2 events for you the next week. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks good in your spot wolf. Looks like 2 events for you the next week. 

 

41 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Really hoping the pattern stays cold thru Dec. Seems we get white Thanksgivings more than Christmases lately.

Yes...the SizzleMas Effect has largely replaced Lake Effect around here for the Mid December -> New Years timeframe.  You know, the one time of year that even snow haters don't mind seeing some.   We've hung on to small amounts of snowcover for Christmas around here somewhat often in recent years, or relied on Xmas Day snow showers to be sort of "white."  At least IMBY.  

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2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

GEFS looks a shit ton better. We go with that. Lol

ICON looks more like a decent lake effect event next week with the synoptic part being basically a frontal passage.  Good news, if true, for the LES people.  Table scraps for the rest of us plebs.

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Sunday, the shortwave digging south out of the Canadian Rockies and
then a second shortwave originating out of the Pacific NW begins to
phase over the upper Midwest. This will be our pattern change that
brings increasing chances for showers Sunday afternoon and then
continues into Sunday night ahead and along a strong cold front. The
cold front looks like it will exit the region Monday with CAA
ramping up and lake effect developing in its wake east-southeast of
both lakes. Looks like initially it will be a mix of rain-snow which
quickly transitions to all snow as H850 temperatures fall to -8C/-
10C by Monday evening. Right now have favored or leaned on the
Canadian-NH/ECMWF guidance from Monday evening through Tuesday which
best depicts the lake effect under cyclonic NW`erly flow.
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16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It just seems that we’re doomed to accept this new normal…the models over doing it showing big cold outbreaks and snowstorms to cool downs and cutters. Just trying to absorb it all. 

Its Nov 17th. No doom or gloom yet, maybe if we get to middle of January and its still warm then maybe. Average high today in buffalo is still 48. 

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..Accumulating lake effect snow Thursday night-Friday...

The cold front will exit east across New England Thursday night,
with the last of the synoptic rain exiting the eastern Lake Ontario
region by early evening. Our attention then turns back to the
mesoscale and lake effect potential.

Strong cold advection Thursday night will send 850MB temps down to
about -8C, then dropping a little more to -9C by Friday evening
behind a weak secondary cold front. Flow Thursday night will be
westerly, then veer a little to WNW Friday morning before going
northwest Friday afternoon behind the secondary cold front. Strong
instability will develop over the lakes (especially Lake Ontario)
with Lake Induced Equilibrium levels rising to near 15K feet briefly
Friday morning. This will set the stage for a robust, albeit brief,
lake response later Thursday night through Friday morning.

Boundary layer temps stay marginal through the event, with a
rain/snow mix close to the lakeshores and snow favored inland across
higher terrain Thursday night through Friday.
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Given the above, went with a very small bullseye of 5-7 inches on
the southern Tug Hill for Thursday night through Friday, with 2-4
inches in surrounding lower elevations. There may be minor, inch or
less accumulations Friday and Friday night southeast of the lake in
the spray of multiple bands, with relatively mild surface
temperatures preventing anything more.
As far as accumulations go, expect the potential for 3-6 inches in
the most persistent bands across the higher terrain of Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus counties, with 1-3 inches across far southern Erie,
southern Wyoming, and the higher terrain of Allegany County.
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This November is definitely more wintry then normal. We will have 4-5 snow events across Upstate this month. The focus is just across higher elevations and ski country. Some places in ski country will have had 2 feet already on the year by next week. The next 2 weeks favor W/NW flow for LES. The entrance point of the cold air is too far east for a SW flow. 

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This November is definitely more wintry then normal. We will have 4-5 snow events across Upstate this month. The focus is just across higher elevations and ski country. Some places in ski country will have had 2 feet already on the year by next week. The next 2 weeks favor W/NW flow for LES. The entrance point of the cold air is too far east for a SW flow. 

We’ve yet to have our first flakes in Rochester. Looks like we wait a bit longer. 

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