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Mid-Atlantic winter 2021-22 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx
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On 3/10/2022 at 10:45 AM, RodneyS said:

It looks like LittleVillageWx is going to hold on in Richmond, leaving WEATHER53 as his biggest challenger. If on Saturday BWI gets 0.6 inches, DCA gets 0.2 inches, IAD an inch or so, and RIC 0.1 inch, that puts WEATHER53 into the lead, with limited chances for any more snow this season.  I would handicap the win probability as follows:

LittleVillageWx 40%

WEATHER53 35%

IUsedToHateCold 15%

Rest of Field: 10%

Tough sledding today for LittleVillageWx, with IUsedToHateCold now in command but WEATHER53 and Rest of Field lurking. 

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16 minutes ago, arlwx said:

Ooh, I actually made it into the top 20!!

I have to agree that if RIC accurately reported.. I might be in the top 10.

You’re the first one on the list that doesn’t have a negative departure at any airport, so you’d be the biggest one to benefit if there’s somehow another region-wide event.

Everyone else higher up has to root for tricky setups where somehow RIC gets blasted while everyone else gets screwed. 

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24 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

You’re the first one on the list that doesn’t have a negative departure at any airport, so you’d be the biggest one to benefit if there’s somehow another region-wide event.

Everyone else higher up has to root for tricky setups where somehow RIC gets blasted while everyone else gets screwed. 

In many years, there is a southern screwdriver.

That's why I went as high I did for RIC.

BUT as a warminsta , I would like for the low-bettors to scoop all the glory.

And for me not to hire a taskrabbiter...

 

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On 3/24/2022 at 1:53 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Still keeping this open as there's a greater-than-zero chance of snow later next week. I'd say probably by April 5 it'll be safe to call if there's nothing on the models, as the leaderboard is not close this year.

I'm hoping for a repeat of 1990.  That year featured the earliest cherry blossom peak bloom on March 15th.  On April 6th and 7th, a 2-day storm dropped 3.8 inches of snow at Dulles.

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On 3/31/2022 at 3:39 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's basically over, I just need to get everything together when I have time. So April 5 will be the official crowning, :lol:

Not so fast -- if there is a huge volcanic eruption that blocks out the sun for several weeks, I still have a chance.  And if there are several huge volcanic eruptions, Roger Smith still has a chance.  And if Doomsday arrives early, George BM still has a chance.

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7 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

Not so fast -- if there is a huge volcanic eruption that blocks out the sun for several weeks, I still have a chance.  And if there are several huge volcanic eruptions, Roger Smith still has a chance.  And if Doomsday arrrives early, George BM still has a chance.

But who will be measuring the snow if Doomsday arrives early? :lol:

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There have been no further changes to the data and no potential events on the models, so it's time to announce the winner: @IUsedToHateCold

Congratulations! Attached is your trophy of snow and ice. I noticed you finished in the top ten last year as well, so you're one to watch!

@RodneyS has agreed to run the contest next year- thanks again!

Trophy.jpg

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6 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Congratulations to IUTHC, and thanks to PFWx for the effort, for a fun and interesting contest. 

I second the congratulations and commend PFWx for his outstanding job of running the contest for the last several years.  With the assistance of his spreadsheet, for which he has already provided me important use instructions, I will attempt to keep the contest running smoothly.

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That's good to know. Just out of interest, what are the latest measurable snowfall dates for the four airports? I think it would be last week of April for NYC and middle of May for Toronto so I am guessing maybe around now to 20th? Also last traces would be interesting to know. Those are about 2-3 weeks later for the places for which I have stats -- there was a trace of snow in Toronto last May 29th and the absolute latest is June 3rd. NYC is May 9th (2020 tied 1977). 

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22 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

That's good to know. Just out of interest, what are the latest measurable snowfall dates for the four airports? I think it would be last week of April for NYC and middle of May for Toronto so I am guessing maybe around now to 20th? Also last traces would be interesting to know. Those are about 2-3 weeks later for the places for which I have stats -- there was a trace of snow in Toronto last May 29th and the absolute latest is June 3rd. NYC is May 9th (2020 tied 1977). 

I don't have all the numbers handy, but for Washington DC, according to https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters: Latest Snowfall = Trace on May 10, 1906; .5 inches on Apr. 28, 1898

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On 4/13/2022 at 2:54 PM, RodneyS said:

I don't have all the numbers handy, but for Washington DC, according to https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters: Latest Snowfall = Trace on May 10, 1906; .5 inches on Apr. 28, 1898

IAD lists a Trace on May 26, 2002 . (seen at 2 different listings. Don't know if I believe it though)

image.png.119ca0a0e3e8ba04fe855d2f3dc4fafd.png

They also list Traces of snow in June 2015 and 2016, but by the temps listed, I suspect that's from hail or semi-hail. Gotta wonder about some of these obs.

eta: Well, BWI lists a Trace on May 31, 2017.    https://www.weather.gov/lwx/bwinme

eta: OK, since we've started this....DCA lists a Trace on May 16, 1988...

image.png.f5e98a5ec8d92137c083564b43f42966.png

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On 4/14/2022 at 3:45 PM, GramaxRefugee said:

IAD lists a Trace on May 26, 2002 . (seen at 2 different listings. Don't know if I believe it though)

image.png.119ca0a0e3e8ba04fe855d2f3dc4fafd.png

They also list Traces of snow in June 2015 and 2016, but by the temps listed, I suspect that's from hail or semi-hail. Gotta wonder about some of these obs.

eta: Well, BWI lists a Trace on May 31, 2017.    https://www.weather.gov/lwx/bwinme

eta: OK, since we've started this....DCA lists a Trace on May 16, 1988...

image.png.f5e98a5ec8d92137c083564b43f42966.png

I'm pretty sure that what you list are all hail reports.  For some reason, hail seems to have been reported in some years, but not others.  Consider that on July 1, 1990, the official Reagan National Airport report is:

          High       Low   Prcp     Snow

90 69 0.44 Trace            
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I posted this on the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang page, regarding the 2021-22 CWG snow forecast for DCA, IAD, and BWI: "Very respectable snow forecast. On American Weather Forums, the winner for the smallest departure from the actual snow that fell at the three area airports plus Richmond International was 4.6 inches.  Excluding Richmond, the winner's total departure for DCA, IAD, and BWI was 3.3 inches vs a total departure of 6.9 inches for the CWG's midpoint forecast at those three airports. Overall, the CWG forecast would have placed 11th out of 59 entries, if Richmond were not included."

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34 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If I had known there was going to be media coverage, I’d have performed better.

If it's any consolation, you were one of the 10 contestants to outperform the Capital Weather Gang, with a total departure of 5.8 inches at DCA, IAD, and BWI vs. 6.9 for the CWG.

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