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Mid-Atlantic winter 2021-22 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx
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48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A lot of people at the top already with negative departures and nowhere to go but down :D

Very true, and according to my calculation, 12 have been eliminated.  That includes WxWatcher007, who is currently tied for second, but is closed out by olafminesaw.:o

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On the subject of the BWI 6.8 or 6.0, they still say 6.8 in the CF6 product also. It is not without precedent for a value in the CF6 to undergo later changes, so worth keeping an eye on that detail. 

Looking at the current standings, it is interesting that the first forecast in the current rankings with a higher forecast for DCA than snow already measured is 12th (and they have only 0.2" to use up) and the next after that is in 27th place. This would be reduced somewhat if we counted only the ranked forecasts that were not eliminated (those that can only sink lower in the standings now). 

Also of interest is that of the first twelve forecasts including that first one that could benefit from DCA snow, only three can benefit from further snow at BWI. 

Another very moderate event such as 4" BWI and DCA 5" IAD and 3" RIC would move the lead down to current 27th place IUsedtoHateCold with 28th place RodneyS then second with 30th place Weather53 in third. 

Looking at current departures, most people in that part of the table have the makings of one plausible snowstorm, while people down near the bottom have a requirement for one large storm or two moderate ones. 

My residual snowstorm is 13.7" BWI, 8.6" DCA, 18.2" IAD and 12.8" RIC. But I would settle for two that added up to that. :)

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56 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Someone should actually calculate the totals that would allow @George BM to clinch. It would be awesome if a contest was won by February.

But Olaf’s in the lead so that probably means winter’s over.

George BM has higher forecasts than any other player in all four locations. I took numbers that were just slightly higher than 2nd highest forecasts in general, and found the following: 

I started with values equal to second highest forecasts and checked each forecast that was among the top five. Those are the five who need more snow than me, and they are generally in a zone where they need quite a bit more. Anyway, at that first level, ldub23 (second highest totals) easily wins over the 3rd to 5th highest, he has two of those second highest numbers, another is just 1.0" under, and for RIC ldub23 is 4" under second highest.

So it would appear to be a straight up contest between ldub23 and GeorgeBM if more snow than ldub23's forecast materializes. Therefore the amounts GeorgeBM would need would be any combination of smaller errors, which could occur with four cases where he is 0.1" or more ahead, or various other combinations. If all the errors were equal, then he would need 32.6" more at BWI, 20.3" more at DCA, 39.2" more at IAD, and 23.5" more at RIC. 

Those are season totals of 42.4" BWI, 29.9" DCA, 47.6" IAD and 25.5" RIC. You could jog those around, as long as the four totals add up to at least 145.4" then GeorgeBM could win. 

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9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

George BM has higher forecasts than any other player in all four locations. I took numbers that were just slightly higher than 2nd highest forecasts in general, and found the following: 

I started with values equal to second highest forecasts and checked each forecast that was among the top five. Those are the five who need more snow than me, and they are generally in a zone where they need quite a bit more. Anyway, at that first level, ldub (second highest totals) easily wins over the 3rd to 5th highest, he has two of those second highest numbers, another is just 1.0" over, and RIC is 4" over. So it would appear to be a straight up contest between ldub23 and GeorgeBM if more snow than ldub23's forecast materializes. Therefore the amounts GeorgeBM would need would be any combination of smaller errors, which could occur with four cases where he is 0.1" or more ahead, or various other combinations. If all the errors were equal, then he would need 32.6" more at BWI, 20.3" more at DCA, 39.2" more at IAD, and 23.5" more at RIC. 

Another way of looking at this is that if snow at each of the four locations averaged about 85% of George BM's forecasts, snow would total 44.6 inches at BWI, 28.5 inches at DCA, 47.6 inches at IAD, and 24.6 inches at RIC.  That would result in George BM's total departure being 26.0 and Idub23's total departure being 26.3. That would close out Idub23 because all of his departures would be negative, whereas all of George BM's departures would be positive.  

By the way, as good as olafminesaw has been in your contest over the years, he is on shaky ground this year because he already has negative departures at both BWI and DCA.  If during the rest of the winter, BWI were to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD were to receive an additional 3.6 inches or more, and RIC were to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more, MN Transplant would close out olafminesaw.

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16 hours ago, RodneyS said:

By the way, as good as olafminesaw has been in your contest over the years, he is on shaky ground this year because he already has negative departures at both BWI and DCA.  If during the rest of the winter, BWI were to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD were to receive an additional 3.6 inches or more, and RIC were to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more, MN Transplant would close out olafminesaw.

It appears that the National Weather Service has reduced yesterday's snowfall at DCA from 2.7 to 2.6 inches and at IAD from 4.5 to 4.0 inches.  If those revised figures hold, the current Top Three would be:  olafminesaw 7.3, Rickin Baltimore 8.8, and WxWatcher007 and MN Transplant tied at 9.8.  Unfortunately for WxWatcher007, he is still closed out by olafminesaw:cry:, but olafminesaw now has a little more of a cushion over MN Transplant.  The latter would now need BWI to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD to receive an additional 4.1 inches or more, and RIC to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more to close out olfaminesaw.  Alternatively, however, if RIC were to receive 1.6 inches more, olafminesaw would be closed out even if no more snow falls in the Washington-Baltimore area this season.  

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At a minimum this storm will probably add 3" to BWI and DCA, 6" to IAD and 1-2" to RIC but median of possible outcomes more like 5-6" at BWI, 4-5" at DCA, 8-10" at IAD, and top end would be 12-15 inches at all three in which case RIC would likely have 5" -- and that's going to eliminate three quarters of the field. With all of Feb and Mar to go. 

Which means add another inch 

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