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3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Rarely because such forecasts do not generate much interest. And they do not generate website hits.  It's no secret that winter weather in general is hyped to a very large degree. 

"Polar Vortex to Assault Eastern 2/3 of nation".....99 percent of people think Polar Vortex is a specialty drink made with Russian vodka...

Good afternoon GS. Years ago I thought it was a Childrens book. Thank Heaven for this forum. As always ……

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40 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The majority of people that  produce a  winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things  without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. 

Ok impact of climate change. Warmer temps for sure  But 15 of the last 20 years have had normal or above normal snowfall.  And I disagree about Winter forecaster's  most are not biased at all.  we know the few who are. listen to them at your own peril.

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A warm, dry winter for the entire country would be a very good thing this year given inflation/gas costs. 

However usually when everyone says that'll be the result, the opposite plays out which is why I'm very skeptical of these long range forecasts. 

The rapidly changing climate has caused Ninas/Ninos to decouple from themselves and that's something that could happen again this year.

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1 minute ago, binbisso said:

Ok impact of climate change. Warmer temps for sure  But 15 of the last 20 years have had normal or above normal snowfall.  And I disagree about Winter forecaster's  most are not biased at all.  we know the few who are listen to them at your own peril.

We are going to have to respectfully disagree on biases influencing forecasts. 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This continues to be a very fast Pacific flow pattern. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs. But there is a big disagreement between the current day 10 forecasts. The colder  EPS is  on its own against the warmer GEFS and GEPS. If the EPS is too cool, then November could finish with a small warm departure. In a variable temperature pattern, the last week of the month usually decides the departures.

 

9DB2C24A-8979-4D88-9F33-1ACAC58C717E.thumb.png.79ed0efe0869938b7955483bf5ccf562.png
CDFC9EA3-E8A1-4BD9-A438-F4568F70710B.thumb.png.712fdd2634452fd54bd5361bb736b8e0.png

A564F682-DAB1-4CE3-ABED-99CCF14B7BBC.thumb.png.dcabfb5c9610029e8fed70dbd2a41221.png

 

 It looks like the GEFS  Corrected towards the EPS around day 9.  Actually the G EFS has below normal 850's day 9th through the end of the run.  also today's operational euro has some mighty cold air in Canada day 9 and 10 I know it's the operational but its ensembles usually follow suit.  Models usually have a tough time during the fall with long range forecasts so take with a grain of salt.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

A warm, dry winter for the entire country would be a very good thing this year given inflation/gas costs. 

However usually when everyone says that'll be the result, the opposite plays out which is why I'm very skeptical of these long range forecasts. 

The rapidly changing climate has caused Ninas/Ninos to decouple from themselves and that's something that could happen again this year.

Certainly plays a significant role. .....and it is underestimated by some. Larry Cosgrove has mentioned it is an important consideration when developing a seasonal forecast. 

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1 minute ago, binbisso said:

 It looks like the GEFS  Corrected towards the EPS around day 9.  Actually the G EFS has below normal 850's day 9th through the end of the run.  also today's operational euro has some mighty cold air in Canada day 9 and 10 I know it's the operational but its ensembles usually follow suit.  Models usually have a tough time during the fall with long range forecasts so take with a grain of salt.

Yeah the source region looks pretty cold for latter November into December. 

That automatically makes it more likely that some of that cold will drain south. Personally I would bet on a near normal if not colder early winter. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah the source region looks pretty cold for latter November into December. 

That automatically makes it more likely that some of that cold will drain south. Personally I would bet on a near normal if not colder early winter. 

Yup. Classic coupled Nina. Fast start. Cold Canada. 

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58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So earthlight is bias ? DT and Steve D also forecasted the same thing along with JB and others on this forum.

If you go by ANYTHING that JB says these days I pity you. He is all about the clickbait. Unfortunately sensational headlines generate revenue. Hence why you rarely hear how much progress you hear about how well we are actually doing with covid now with vaccines, treatments, etc. gotta drum up hysteria to get clicks which in turn = $$$

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18 minutes ago, binbisso said:

GEPS also corrected colder day 10+. Back to a western ridge. Looking at the gfs individual members about 12 have an inch or more of snow for nyc on north thru turkey day. Probably not happening but can't be ruled out

Agree

Thanksgiving week looks to be cold as of right now. 

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30 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

If you go by ANYTHING that JB says these days I pity you. He is all about the clickbait. Unfortunately sensational headlines generate revenue. Hence why you rarely hear how much progress you hear about how well we are actually doing with covid now with vaccines, treatments, etc. gotta drum up hysteria to get clicks which in turn = $$$

But JB isn't alone on a cold December 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But JB isn't alone on a cold December 

My point is JB is always cold. He literally writes about global cooling and the coming ice age. Many others hype for clicks and then slowly walk back statements. But JB is way too biased to even be taken at face value these days. I still think we see some colder weather in December and am hoping for some snow but I won’t buy the hysteria of extreme cold etc right now. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Tough to compete against the record warmth last November. Newark has only reached 70° once so far this month. They tied  the record with 7 days last November.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
2021 1 20
2020 7 0
2019 0 0
2018 2 0
2017 2 0
2016 2 0
2015 5 0
2014 2 0
2013 1 0
2012 0 0
2011 3 0
2010 0 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
  2020 7 0
- 1975 7 0
  1994 6 0
- 1990 6 0
- 1953 6 0
- 1931 6 0
  2015 5 0
- 2001 5 0
- 1982 5 0
- 1938 5 0

Chris, do you have the one for JFK too? I think they came close to 80 on one or two of those days last year?

 

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

 It looks like the GEFS  Corrected towards the EPS around day 9.  Actually the G EFS has below normal 850's day 9th through the end of the run.  also today's operational euro has some mighty cold air in Canada day 9 and 10 I know it's the operational but its ensembles usually follow suit.  Models usually have a tough time during the fall with long range forecasts so take with a grain of salt.

The polar vortex shifts over the Hudson Bay in late November on the extended EPS. So Canada gets colder and we get cool downs behind each Pacific short wave. Our temperatures average near to below normal. We just don’t want the polar vortex consolidating near the Arctic at the start December like the EPS has. While this is something to watch for, the EPS skill at these ranges is very low. 

NOV 15-22

6560D897-8FDF-46FB-A96D-58C46DF4A304.thumb.png.8573a5831fb7716859654de5868afe64.png

 

Nov 22-29


462816F9-8817-441D-B201-2A2E0F93BD9D.thumb.png.55bdddadd1938cc09c786c00d62ec8c8.png


024241F0-1C80-42B5-ADF2-1F6BE0953F8A.thumb.jpeg.811011131400f8e6ce93a47a765f81a2.jpeg

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The polar vortex shifts over the Hudson Bay in late November on the extended EPS. So Canada gets colder and we get cool downs behind each Pacific short wave. Our temperatures average near to below normal. We just don’t want the polar vortex consolidating near the Arctic at the start December like the EPS has. While this is something to watch for, the EPS skill at these ranges is very low. 

NOV 15-22

6560D897-8FDF-46FB-A96D-58C46DF4A304.thumb.png.8573a5831fb7716859654de5868afe64.png

 

Nov 22-29


462816F9-8817-441D-B201-2A2E0F93BD9D.thumb.png.55bdddadd1938cc09c786c00d62ec8c8.png


024241F0-1C80-42B5-ADF2-1F6BE0953F8A.thumb.jpeg.811011131400f8e6ce93a47a765f81a2.jpeg

 

 

 

 

 

I mean, at least the PV looks slightly elongated there.  I’ve seen way worse.

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2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Play your cards right and Santa may bring you the childrens book and a 6 Pack of Polar Vortex!!.....

Edit:...see post below!!

 

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Play your cards right and Santa may bring you the childrens book and a 6 Pack of Polar Vortex!!.....

Edit:...see post below!!

Done and thank you. On the evening of the Eve I’ll keep the deck shuffled  while Jacob M and myself discuss old times as we wait for Santa. We’ll even keep a seat open for Will. As always ….

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23 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I mean, at least the PV looks slightly elongated there.  I’ve seen way worse.

Yeah, we just don’t want the consolidated look to the polar vortex in the next frame. But that is outside the effective range. A more elongated vortex with higher heights near Greenland and the Aleutians would be better. Still plenty of time to see how it evolves.

 

4C6EB39F-8C29-4138-A406-B8EB65CDD34C.thumb.jpeg.e0147f0af741550b45450e8342af7cd4.jpeg

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39 minutes ago, Rjay said:

How is JB still a thing talked about here in 2021?

Agree. All he does is predict severe cold and snow for the east coast. He’s got some serious issues within the old coconut. Dude is delusional. How anyone would pay money to read his snake oil propaganda is beyond me. Henry Margusity is just as bad. Two peas in a pod…

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At 5:40 pm, an area of moderate to heavy rain stretched from Alabama to western Ontario and was heading eastward. Rain associated with that front will arrive during the overnight hours and continue into tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. Some areas could even see a thunderstorm. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely.

Temperatures will hold nearly steady and then rise late at night before rebounding into the lower and middle 60s tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week. Uncertainty about the overall temperature anomaly for the second half of November has increased.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 10 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +22.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.252 today.

On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.895 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.963 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal).

 

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