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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see what the models are trying to do in the 11-14 day range by looking at the velocity potential charts. The La Niña standing wave is MJO 4-5. The forcing near Africa and South America closer to phase 1. So the RMM charts won’t be able to resolve all the forcing in multiple locations. This combination of phases in early December supports a +EPO and south based -AO -NAO extending to near the Canadian Maritimes. There is also a battle out West between a neutral to -PNA at times. 
 

C6901B89-F169-49BE-AAB1-A968BE37C1FA.jpeg.2c4a5a90326c9db4820ee27e7de13903.jpeg
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Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You can see what the models are trying to do in the 11-14 day range by looking at the velocity potential charts. The La Niña standing wave is MJO 4-5. The forcing near Africa and South America closer to phase 1. So the RMM charts won’t be able to resolve all the forcing in multiple locations. This combination of phases in early December supports a +EPO and south based -AO -NAO extending to near the Canadian Maritimes. There is also a battle out West between a neutral to -PNA at times. 
 

C6901B89-F169-49BE-AAB1-A968BE37C1FA.jpeg.2c4a5a90326c9db4820ee27e7de13903.jpeg
EC7C584B-D769-4154-B3B5-89EC20D7E28F.png.0fccd154d2cc1a7214bc908402e10484.png

8465095C-42FD-4666-84D2-BCB351D51972.png.a3c85838dd3420f6ba70dae7ce19f0ee.png

 

Chris, I know we are in shorter wavelengths currently, but when we get to longer wavelengths, will the models and ensembles be able to better decipher the atmosphere? Just curious 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states

The models can’t even get a pattern right within 3-5 days , do you buy everything they say when they show a breakdown ? 

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58 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Chris, I know we are in shorter wavelengths currently, but when we get to longer wavelengths, will the models and ensembles be able to better decipher the atmosphere? Just curious 

Models will always struggle beyond the day 6-10 ensemble means. But the extreme nature of the Pacific Jet this year really stands out. One record storm after another along the West Coast. The storms  have been so intense, that they dropped the -PDO to near record lows for this time of year.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models will always struggle beyond the day 6-10 ensemble means. But the extreme nature of the Pacific Jet this year really stands out. One record storm after another along the West Coast. The storms  have been so intense, that they dropped the -PDO to near record lows for this time of year.

 

 

What the heck happened in Vancouver?  That was horrendous!  I heard that enso is only responsible for about 20% of CONUS weather and this would've happened in other enso states too (maybe not to this degree.)

 

Also how similar is this to the patterns  we had in Fall 1989 and Fall 1998?

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What the heck happened in Vancouver?  That was horrendous!  I heard that enso is only responsible for about 20% of CONUS weather and this would've happened in other enso states too (maybe not to this degree.)

 

Also how similar is this to the patterns  we had in Fall 1989 and Fall 1998?

 

There is an ongoing marine heatwave covering parts of the Pacific Ocean. That has increased the intensity of atmospheric rivers.

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

exactly, this is why we had a snowstorm here in November 2012 a week after Sandy and the waters were really warm then too

 

Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm. 

It's so weird because I remember LGA got mixed precip and JFK got snow, and we had a lot of snow around here, really wet heavy snow with branches coming down and treacherous driving conditions

 

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