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7 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk) says if your looking for cold air in the second half of November keep looking. Nothing overly cold other then maybe seasonal for the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see.

 

He changed his tune very fast. He was forecasting a cold 2nd half of November into December.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This continues to be a very fast Pacific flow pattern. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs. But there is a big disagreement between the current day 10 forecasts. The colder  EPS is  on its own against the warmer GEFS and GEPS. If the EPS is too cool, then November could finish with a small warm departure. In a variable temperature pattern, the last week of the month usually decides the departures.

 

9DB2C24A-8979-4D88-9F33-1ACAC58C717E.thumb.png.79ed0efe0869938b7955483bf5ccf562.png
CDFC9EA3-E8A1-4BD9-A438-F4568F70710B.thumb.png.712fdd2634452fd54bd5361bb736b8e0.png

A564F682-DAB1-4CE3-ABED-99CCF14B7BBC.thumb.png.dcabfb5c9610029e8fed70dbd2a41221.png

 

This is really troubling. Looks like the SPV stays very strong right through the end of this month, going into the beginning of December: 

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

A -1 to +1 first 10 days of November feels much colder due to the record warmth in September and October. 
 

EWR….+0.6

NYC…..-1.1

LGA….+0.8

JFK….+0.3

ISP…..-0.6

BDR….-0.6

HPN….-1.2

Actually, it's felt like a very mild November down here, 70s the last two days. All the trees are still green on Nov 11th..

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33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you like winter, pray that it’s totally wrong. It’s showing raging ++NAO/++AO. If that happens, you can stick a fork in this winter

It's only November for crying out loud.  Long range forecasting is a joke just like we saw in the past 2 winters. Even if they showed snow it would still be a joke.

I appreciate all the long range forecasting but it's not easy to depict it accurately. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's only November for crying out loud.  Long range forecasting is a joke just like we saw in the past 2 winters. Even if they showed snow it would still be a joke.

I appreciate all the long range forecasting but it's not easy to depict it accurately. 

I never once said I believe it, or I’m forecasting it or I think that’s what’s going to happen. I simply commented on what the model is showing, nothing more, nothing less

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's only November for crying out loud.  Long range forecasting is a joke just like we saw in the past 2 winters. Even if they showed snow it would still be a joke.

I appreciate all the long range forecasting but it's not easy to depict it accurately. 

...well it is approaching mid november and there is not  a single sign of a dramatic pattern change that is going to be required.  There has been very few cold fronts all fall. Near record to record warm temps.  

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...well it is approaching mid november and there is not  a single sign of a dramatic pattern change that is going to be required.  There has been very few cold fronts all fall. Near record to record warm temps.  

Good let the cold weather wait until the end of the month and December.

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10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Where do you live? I expect any leaves remaining on the trees to be stripped bare tomorrow. We are past peak out this way. 

That certainly will not be taking place in SNE.  I have never seen so many trees with leaves on them.  In this area the leaf drop is at least 3 weeks late.

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Just now, MJO812 said:

I don't think anyone forecasted a warm December.  All the forecasts  I have seen are for a cold and snowy December and half of January and a warm 2nd half.

The majority of people that  produce a  winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things  without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. 

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The majority of people that  produce a  winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things  without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. 

So earthlight is bias ? DT and Steve D also forecasted the same thing along with JB and others on this forum.

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Just now, MJO812 said:

We go through this every single year. People panic it is too warm. 

It isn't panic at all....just take a look at what the overall pattern has been producing for months...once again there isn't a single sign of a dramatic pattern change....and every year we also go through people insisting it is going to be a cold/snowy winter...

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it doesn't feel that cold this week thanks to the sun :)

 

Tough to compete against the record warmth last November. Newark has only reached 70° once so far this month. They tied  the record with 7 days last November.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
2021 1 20
2020 7 0
2019 0 0
2018 2 0
2017 2 0
2016 2 0
2015 5 0
2014 2 0
2013 1 0
2012 0 0
2011 3 0
2010 0 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
  2020 7 0
- 1975 7 0
  1994 6 0
- 1990 6 0
- 1953 6 0
- 1931 6 0
  2015 5 0
- 2001 5 0
- 1982 5 0
- 1938 5 0
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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The majority of people that  produce a  winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things  without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. 

true to some degree.  How often do you see a mild/snowless winter forecasted?

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

true to some degree.  How often do you see a mild/snowless winter forecasted?

Rarely because such forecasts do not generate much interest. And they do not generate website hits.  It's no secret that winter weather in general is hyped to a very large degree. 

"Polar Vortex to Assault Eastern 2/3 of nation".....99 percent of people think Polar Vortex is a specialty drink made with Russian vodka...

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