Tatamy Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, lee59 said: Quite a range in temperatures on Long Island. Recording stations on Weatherlink show temperatures at the Long Island Sound stations and the south shore water locations in the low to mid 40s while the middle of the Island has temps in the 20s to mid 30s. Central Park appears to be the only major city from Boston to D.C. that stayed at 40 degrees. Winds along the shore in most places never went down to calm to allow for radiational cooling. I have a station on Fire Island which never had winds go below 3-4mph and that resulted in temperatures staying in the 40s all night. Interestingly when I looked at WU there were stations almost within walking distance of the Great South Bay that did go calm and drop off to freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Winds along the shore in most places never went down to calm to allow for radiational cooling. I have a station on Fire Island which never had winds go below 3-4mph and that resulted in temperatures staying in the 40s all night. Interestingly when I looked at WU there were stations almost within walking distance of the Great South Bay that did go calm and drop off to freezing. Yea the radiational cooling nights create some big differences in temperatures in very short distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 We’ll probably need one of the mid-November storm systems to amplify enough to get our first -10 departure of the fall. The last -10 departures occurred on the July 4th weekend. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2016&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 our nor'easter from 11 days ago is still out there 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Pattern looks alot better by Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Cfa said: No freeze here. Temp was 33 when I left. Car was 34/35 from home to the LIE, then dropped to 29 from the LIE to Middle Country Road. 31 was my low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 20 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks alot better by Thanksgiving The MJO going into phase 4-6 in mid to late November would support a big ridge over Western North America and colder temperatures in the East. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 DO WHAT YOU WANNA........ SAY WHAT YOU WISH>>>>>> ACCUWEATHER JUST DECLARED.......... THE WINTER AN EMPTY DISH. November ends AN and December catches the fever.............it gets worse from there. Not what I wanted. Meanwhile JB is out trumpeting the coming cold.......but has he forgotten the trumpet's mouthpiece again? Meanwhile close in: 6 in the 60's, 5 in the 40's and then a free ticket to ride the Roller Coaster again? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Finally got below freezing in Lindenhurst after a few mornings of 34 for the low. Went down to about 31 this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: DO WHAT YOU WANNA........ SAY WHAT YOU WISH>>>>>> ACCUWEATHER JUST DECLARED.......... THE WINTER AN EMPTY DISH. November ends AN and December catches the fever.............it gets worse from there. Not what I wanted. Meanwhile JB is out trumpeting the coming cold.......but has he forgotten the trumpet's mouthpiece again? Signals are there for the pattern to get colder. You can ignore it if you want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 8 hours ago, Tatamy said: Winds along the shore in most places never went down to calm to allow for radiational cooling. I have a station on Fire Island which never had winds go below 3-4mph and that resulted in temperatures staying in the 40s all night. Interestingly when I looked at WU there were stations almost within walking distance of the Great South Bay that did go calm and drop off to freezing. Yeah it wasn't even our coldest night. Do you have a low for JFK? I've been looking for that. I recorded 35 with a dew point of 32 and yet there was no frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks alot better by Thanksgiving Probably not enough for snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah it wasn't even our coldest night. Do you have a low for JFK? I've been looking for that. I recorded 35 with a dew point of 32 and yet there was no frost. The low at JFK was 36. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The low at JFK was 36. so frost was confirmed (dew point 32 or lower?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow. During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 5 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +3.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.002 today. On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.985 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.685 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 No thread on 12-14. Too ordinary with varying speeds of fropa rainfall. While no thread, I still will watch for a slower evolution and more intense elements than currently ensembled/operationally modeled. Have a good night, Walt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: so frost was confirmed (dew point 32 or lower?) Yes. It was at and below 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 yawn 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: yawn This is awesome weather, so much sun during the day and lots of stars to see at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 I'm currently in Mahwah NJ where it is frosty and 29 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 54 minutes ago, Fantom X said: I'm currently in Mahwah NJ where it is frosty and 29 degrees. I wonder if it's colder than that in your old town on Eastern Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(49/62), or +6. Heavy rain between the 12th-15th possible, ending up colder for a while. Oh!, and, just for effect-10" OF SNOW in the City yet!!!!!@!!!!!. FLASH: Congress calls for GFS to be investigated for fraud and deception. Reached 55 here yesterday. Today: 53-57, wind nw., p. sunny 45*(65%RH) here at 6am(EST started)) today) 50* at Noon. 56* at 2pm. Reached 58* around 3:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 First GFS since changing the clocks back Euro also has this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 30 here this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: All the models have snow at least in the interior for mid-November as we go to a colder -EPO+PNA MJO 4-6 pattern. Good possibility for the interior with the colder pattern evolving . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we may be switching from a September and October endless summer to a La Niña early winter pattern. La Nina's are usually wintry early on so we might have to take what we can get at the end of this month through January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 Not threading yet. High amplitude trough with several shortwaves behind the initial central USA portion on the 12th. IF we can get something to dig behind it and come out of the large scale trough - negative tilt - on the 14th, we'll be in business for a two part event, strong southerlies and associated heavy weather late 12-13, and possible ne USA coastal rain ending as snow or flurries 14 or 15. Just too early for me to commit on anything out of the ordinary, be it more than 3" of rain in parts of the NYC subforum, or first flakes (cor from auto speller) to NYC with accums as far down as just south of I84. Just too early for me to be sure but it's sort of been on the boards for a day or so of modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: While it has been a rarity to get NYC measurable snow in November during a La Niña, the last time it happened was 1995. Before that, NYC did it in the 1955-1956 La Niña. So root for the MJO 4-6 to overperform like in did in 1995 if you want someNYC La Niña November snow. In the main la nina thread they seem to think we'll have an active back end too. So maybe a snowy beginning and a snow end? Quote a few la nina's have been book end winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 10" GEE! And it falls at a furious rate too. Really-----the atmosphere from the surface to 850mb under 32* for say 10 hours on a Nov. 15? I bet this melts away before it happens. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now