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The Euro seasonal DJF 500mb composite is a blend of the 16-17 and 17-18 La Ninas. The SE Ridge/WAR in the means kept those winters warmer than normal. But the poleward Aleutians ridge across the Arctic to Greenland gave us the -AO and -NAO intervals and above normal snows. Be interesting to see if the SEAS 5 comes close to the actual winter pattern.


6C77A6A8-3C5A-4CDB-87B0-62F3C34F71DD.png.aa4a5c715e182da6f0c80c61cd70c62f.png

263BAF53-CB6E-4255-A556-0FE6CB2C0094.thumb.jpeg.976430cbb06539c667750ecd78d08ba3.jpeg

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal DJF 500mb composite is a blend of the 16-17 and 17-18 La Ninas. The SE Ridge/WAR in the means kept those winters warmer than normal. But the poleward Aleutians ridge across the Arctic to Greenland gave us the -AO and -NAO intervals and above normal snows. Be interesting to see if the SEAS 5 comes close to the actual winter pattern.


6C77A6A8-3C5A-4CDB-87B0-62F3C34F71DD.png.aa4a5c715e182da6f0c80c61cd70c62f.png

263BAF53-CB6E-4255-A556-0FE6CB2C0094.thumb.jpeg.976430cbb06539c667750ecd78d08ba3.jpeg

 

How was December in those years? I forget.

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It is. Here’s another opinion on what it’s showing: 

“Very mild winter for the US”

First of all the seasonals are not that accurate. If that was correct it's just an average of 3 months. Predicting snowfall is nearly impossible.You can get 2 snowstorms and get average snow.Anyway it's not ugly and it doesn't show a very mild winter. Maybe your warm bias is seeing it different.

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56 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

First of all the seasonals are not that accurate. If that was correct it's just an average of 3 months. Predicting snowfall is nearly impossible.You can get 2 snowstorms and get average snow.Anyway it's not ugly and it doesn't show a very mild winter. Maybe your warm bias is seeing it different.

Agree 

I had close to 40 inches last winter and it wasn't even cold. 

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Our last colder than average winter was 2014-2015. So we have had 6 warmer than normal winters in a row. Be interesting to see if our new warmer 1991-2020 climate normals make it easer to actually get a DJF below normal average temperature one of these winters. Luckily for the snow fans, we have had above normal snowfall for 4 out of those last 6 seasons.
 

383328DF-9B17-42BA-A1FC-45D5FD2223BA.thumb.png.4a6a2e1660c27a0cdfb660b3e2a26505.png

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74A0AD6D-93AF-41C5-8128-65B8F9A30174.png.3a7e36af3b0d2c1824505b18cb0f3922.png 

 

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On 11/4/2021 at 1:31 PM, Tatamy said:

My lettuce and parsley are still going strong.  Everything else has been frosted out over the past two nights.  I had some impatiens in pots that I had placed next to my foundation in order to see if I could keep them going.  Last night’s frost got them.  I have found that 24 degrees is the cutoff for what parsley will survive down to.  I any case my lettuce and parsley are in flats that I can bring in if it gets that cold.

After surviving the light frost tuesday and wednesday night, the sensitive plants in my vegetable garden got destroyed by the freeze last night. We got down to 30. End of the growing season for sensitive plants, but more hardy things like lettuce can go on for awhile as you said. Broccoli sometimes goes on until early December here. So I don't really consider the growing season over until we get a very hard freeze that destroys the more hardy plants.

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3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I couldn’t care less what it shows. Above normal temps coinciding with above normal snowfall is becoming the new norm. Torch away as long as I get my 40+ inches.

Doesnt work like that long term. Like saying the house is on fire but Im nice and warm

 

We arent the new Denver.

 

We are in transition to DC or Norfolk.

 

 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Will have to see what effects this has on the stratosphere and the SPV this winter, but HM just pointed out that we are resembling a volcanic stratosphere in some ways right now: 

 

Not to be a dick but that’s exactly why you tend to get called out because of stuff like this. You know what you’re talking about most of the time but you definitely lean to the warm bias. 

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34 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

85-86 is an example 

Yeah, 85-86 that was the last colder winter with below average snowfall. Several of the 1980s winters had patterns that haven’t repeated since. December 1980 was our last below zero Christmas. 1982 featured our last April blizzard with 3 daily consecutive record low temperatures. December 1989 was the last -10 departure December that averaged in the 20s.  

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Not to be a dick but that’s exactly why you tend to get called out because of stuff like this. You know what you’re talking about most of the time but you definitely lean to the warm bias. 

I’m done offering my opinion in this forum. If you offer anything other than NYC is going to have a very cold and very snowy winter you get attacked

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